Last Friday, stocks soared as Yellen dropped hawkish hints that The Fed would raise rates "because it was appropriate" implying everything is awesome. One week later - following a terrible Fed-narrative-imploding jobs print - Hillary Clinton-donor and Fed member Lael Brainard goes back to full dove-tard:
*BRAINARD: U.S. JOBS IN MAY REPORT SUGGESTS LABOR MKT HAS SLOWED
*BRAINARD SEES BENEFITS TO FED WAITING FOR ADDITIONAL DATA
Nothing would surprise us less to see stock go green today on this dovish news - just as they did last Friday on hawkish sentiment. If (Fed speaks) THEN (Buy).
Additional headlines/excuses are...
*BRAINARD: CAN'T TAKE RESILIENCE OF U.S. RECOVERY FOR GRANTED (but but Janet said)
*BRAINARD: CAN'T RULE OUT SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE REACTION TO BREXIT (better wait then!)
*BRAINARD: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS MIXED, DOWNSIDE RISKS REMAIN (but but Janet said)
*BRAINARD: FED HAS MADE CONTINUED PROGRESS TOWARD ITS GOALS (really?)
*BRAINARD: DOLLAR SEEMS MORE SENSITIVE TO FED POLICY SURPRISES (no censored)
*BRAINARD: RISKS TO FED'S INFLATION GOAL WEIGHTED TO DOWNSIDE (but dollar means strong US economy?)
*BRAINARD: DON'T DISMISS REEMERGENCE OF RISKS AROUND CHINA (better not hike then just in case)
*BRAINARD SEES FED POLICY PATH LIKELY SHALLOW FOR SEVERAL YEARS (lower for...ever)
re "reasons for keeping oil prices low" China too has very compelling reasons to see low crude prices: China has made $$$$ loans to oil producers when crude was peddling around $100/bbl to be paid back not in $$$$ but in barrels of crude.
I am sure you can appreciate why China would like to see bbl trade sub 30/25 bux
Mtl JP 22:06:52 GMT - 06/01/2016
john your verbs would appear to be in wrong tense
"are" -> were
"it is" -> it was
"have been" appears to be ok.
OPEC's (i.e. saudi) mettle is not what it used to be :
JP- I don't get your point. The Saudis are the swing OPEC oil producer and have been for many decades. They have political and long term economic reasons for keeping oil prices low. That's all there is to it.
Should an OPEC cartel be tolerated by consuming nations? I think not, but it is.
Mtl JP 21:34:13 GMT - 06/01/2016
the saudis are at risk of becoming clowns if not dunces with their pretentions of OPEC rule.
Mtl JP 21:10:51 GMT - 06/01/2016
last wti quote 48.92
nothing to get excited about either way
usdcad slightly down at 1.3071-ish
GVI Trading Room john 20:42:17 GMT - 06/01/2016
unexpected build in crude. EIA data (15:00 GMT) on Thursday.
john it just says that BBook's "A" risk rating is mootcho mas too generous (B or B-). Not worth the time waiting for its release to try to either protec one's account or add to it on the back of this release.
red Draghi should be excused to gloat a bit ... about alleged economic improvements and by him seem improving - how-ever slowly and fragily - economics. Potentially eventual posi-reaction in euro should be a Sell-on-Pops trade opp
Mtl JP 16:45:34 GMT - 06/01/2016
john OPEC may not be a democracy but its top dog undisputed ruler is poof. POOF ! gone. They need to be careful now.
london red 16:44:34 GMT - 06/01/2016
i dont see any new low pre draghi. mkt isnt expecting much, he may talk it down during presser, but might go up a little first. mkt will quickly turn to nfp where one will need to consider more than just the headline print. more on that friday pre nfp.
Mtl JP 16:42:37 GMT - 06/01/2016
so GV and TTN do it again: beat WSJ to the punch.
too bad crude zzzz.... no trade
OPEC meets tomorrow in Vienna. It is not a democracy. One country in essence holds all the votes!
GVI Trading Room john 16:39:34 GMT - 06/01/2016
Report OPEC split on Ol production limits
Belgrade Knez 16:04:56 GMT - 06/01/2016
where do you see lowest EU for this down move please?
GVI Trading Room john 16:00:01 GMT - 06/01/2016
Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q116 GDP 2.50% from 2.90% (May 31)
-- Source: TTN
Mtl JP 15:21:12 GMT - 06/01/2016
boo-wa-hahahaha... the the neck cutters are really struggling to try to remain relevant eh ?
Can u imagine Janet raises her interest rate and dollar rallies and .... crude pukes to $25 or lower ?!?!
Stay usdcad BoD biased.
go janet go! raise that rate ! go janet go !
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 15:13:03 GMT - 06/01/2016
11:12 Sources say OPEC likely to consider new oil output ceiling at tomorrow's meeting - press
- Source TradeTheNews.com
london red 15:03:34 GMT - 06/01/2016
euro watches note eurgbp, right on long stable ichy kijun 7755. pop here either way will spike euro and thats likely to be last stop run of interest for the day and price should drift in reverse of spike.
london red 14:45:10 GMT - 06/01/2016
JP, monthly candle shows all need to see. closed month at low, could do with some back fill. likely some backfill will take place after brexit vote but some may take place earlier. 11245 is the key on the upside. if that breaks we can backfill to 11450 max ie 11250-11450 top of monthly candle prior to brexit. after brexit, its imp to remember end of month closing point likely to differ vastly from initial move.
london red 14:41:50 GMT - 06/01/2016
prior saw a big rise but that falls into q1 (march) and old news. april will pullback q2 f/c but not by much still will be well over 2% - we are on the "will raise as long as nothing bad happens" train again as last q4.
PAR14:31:58 GMT - 06/01/2016
How does that big drop in construction spending correlates to all those strong NAHB and housing figures ?
China may caixin MFG PMI final decrease to 49.2 (fcast 49.3 ) vs. prev 49.4
GVI01:41:16 GMT - 06/01/2016
AUD up on
MNI: AUSTRALIA Q1 GDP +1.1% Q/Q; MNI MEDIAN +0.8% AUSTRALIA Q1 GDP +3.1% Y/Y; MNI MEDIAN +2.9%
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 15:52:42 GMT - 05/31/2016
Thanks ACC, suggest reading some of my articles (see link below).
Sydney ACC 15:41:05 GMT - 05/31/2016
IN my opinion there are three aspectss that won't be factored into an opinion poll:
1. Voting is not compulsory. At the last general election 66% of those enrolled (no idea of the general population not even enrolled to vote), that was up from 59% in 2001 but much lower than the postwar high of 84% in 1950. Although at the Scottish referendum voter turnout was 85%.
That voting is optional makes the opinion polls flaky at best.
2.It is more likely Brexit voters will cast their votes given they want change.
3, Regional interests. The SNP has indicated a Brexit vote would see another push for independence. Northern Ireland is the region of the UK that would be most affected by an EU withdrawal.
GVI Trading Room john 15:34:20 GMT - 05/31/2016
Atlanta Fed 2Q16 GDPNow 2.90% unchanged from May 26.
GVI Trading Room15:33:35 GMT - 05/31/2016
11:25 (US) State Dept issues a 'travel alert' notice for Europe, citing risk of terrorist attacks during summer events in Europe
As part of the State Departments continuous efforts to provide Americans travelling abroad with information about relevant events, we are alerting U.S. citizens to the risk of potential terrorist attacks throughout Europe, targeting major events, tourist sites, restaurants, commercial centers and transportation. The large number of tourists visiting Europe in the summer months will present greater targets for terrorists planning attacks in public locations, especially at large events. This Travel Alert expires August 31, 2016.
- Source TradeTheNews.com
PAR15:05:09 GMT - 05/31/2016
How reliable and relevant are these polls . What is the margin of error . How much Gin have those enquêteurs been dinking ?
DJ GBP Falls as Polls Show Brexit Support -- Market Talk
1449 GMT GBP slides, dropping to trade down 0.5% at $1.4559 from around $1.4640 beforehand, after two ICM polls--one phone poll and one online--reveal greater support for leaving the EU rather than remaining, ahead of a June 23 referendum. An ICM phone poll for the Guardian has 'leave' on 45% and 'remain' on 42%, while an online poll has 'leave' on 47% and 'remain' on 44%. GBP also falls against the EUR, with EUR/GBP up 0.6% at 0.7667, up from around 0.7627 before the polls were announced. ([email protected])
PAR14:53:30 GMT - 05/31/2016
Again FSA sleeping at the wheel . Release of those polls is market moving info ?
PAR14:51:26 GMT - 05/31/2016
Or Big City banks manipulating the polls to profit . Kind of LIBOR scandal revisited . Money is extremely powerfull . LOL
GVI Trading Room john 14:38:26 GMT - 05/31/2016
Brexit tide turning again? GBP weaker...
GVI Trading Room john 14:36:32 GMT - 05/31/2016
ICM Brexit polls
PAR14:03:26 GMT - 05/31/2016
Higher crude prices hitting consumer confidence . Spending goes up as gasoline prices move higher . Higher crude is good for Wallstreet , bad for JoeSixpack .
look... almost everybody thinks usd is BoD
that in itself is an alarm
to stay sharp
tokyo joyya 12:16:41 GMT - 05/31/2016
and us30 can make new high?or down bfore that?
Mtl JP 12:12:42 GMT - 05/31/2016
usdyen needs to go N of 111.50 first
tokyo joyya 12:10:16 GMT - 05/31/2016
Mtl JP 12:07 GMT 05/31/2016
what do you think about usdjpy?112?115?120?next?
Mtl JP 12:07:42 GMT - 05/31/2016
for now usd is BoD
at half past the hour comes risk to my account category "A" via US PCE release
tokyo joyya 11:58:29 GMT - 05/31/2016
Mtl JP 10:14 GMT 05/31/2016
my guess is that she will not hike in june disapointment...hahaha
Mtl JP 10:14:14 GMT - 05/31/2016
OPEC has lost its MOJO.
Saudis are struggling.
- increasingly looking like they need to depeg their Riyal
Janet hiking her rate should make the usd rocket
dollar rockets = crude's price goes back into the toilet
Janet holds a sharp blade to the Saudi's banking and a spear to their financial heart.
PAR10:00:37 GMT - 05/31/2016
Oil headed for the longest run of monthly advances in more than five years as OPEC delegates prepared to meet this week in Vienna to assess output.
Futures in New York are up about 8 percent in May, rising for a fourth month. Libya’s Petroleum Facilities Guard captured a town near the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf oil-loading terminals after fierce clashes with Islamic State militants.
Oil has surged since slumping to a 12-year low in February on signs the worldwide surplus is easing amid declining production from the U.S. to Nigeria
GVI Trading Room john 09:00:24 GMT - 05/31/2016
Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) May 2016
yy: -0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.
yy: +0.80% vs. vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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