But equally, it underlines that today's ECB meeting and forecasts were above all aimed to ensure no surprises whatsoever, perhaps hoping (completely forlornly) that to offer no additional incentives for money fleeing GBP in the event of a pro-Brexit vote to go into the Euro, even if that seem very unlikely to be a material consideration for investors. That said, if the UK referendum turns out in favour of 'remain' and oil prices continue to stabilize, then the ECB staff forecasts for CPI may need a sharp upward adjustment in September, perhaps as much as 0.3 ppts for 2017 and 2018 (2016 being rather moot by that stage), which would have to be carefully stage managed, if it were not to be an unwelcome shock for financial markets.
PAR14:56:44 GMT - 06/02/2016
"* Forecasts - a) in terms of GDP 2016 now seen at 1.6% y/y vs 1.4%, 2017 at 1.7% (stet), 2018 1.7 vs. 1.8% - no real surprises there, they presume Eurozone grow around its potential rate, though the very even profile inevitably looks rather improbable; b) CPI - 2016 now seen at 0.2% y/y vs 0.1%, but medium-term forecasts unchanged vs March 2017 at 1.3%, 2018 1.6% - this despite oil rallying from $35.0 in March to around $50 currently. One could conclude that the staff forecasters do not believe the current oil price rally will be durable. However, it is more likely that the ECB wanted to ensure that the forecasts implied no chance of an early discussion about tapering its current array of QE measures. Risks continue to be stressed as being to the downside."
PAR13:50:13 GMT - 06/02/2016
The Soviet Central Plan Bureau also consisted of highly educatad people with the best intentions and the CPB managed to destroy the Soviet economy .
History has proven that Free Markets lead to better capital allocation than Central Planning .
Mario was educated in an Italy that admired the Soviet Union , that in his genes . Don Camillo vs Peponne.
dc CB 13:39:00 GMT - 06/02/2016
Un-Elected Ruler, Mario Draggi vows to continue EBD's Chronic OPPRESSION until every middle class citizen of the European Union is financially decimated.
Carpet bombing will commece June 8 and continue well into 2017.
Mtl JP 13:33:02 GMT - 06/02/2016
john 13:25 the ECB has some 2,500 staff... mostly with high education pedigree. Might you be suggesting that a market determined solution might be better solution than one insisted upon by (quasi) government ?
PAR13:28:09 GMT - 06/02/2016
ECB press conference finished . Far from convincing .
Euro down , stocks down . It keeps on raining in Europe and that is making Draghi even more depressive .
Give Draghi PROZAC . These policies are not working .
Find someone new . MOURINHO at the ECB ?
GVI Trading Room john 13:25:13 GMT - 06/02/2016
Agree Re Draghi... a depressing presentation today. In essence he implied the ECB is out of ideas.
PAR13:13:19 GMT - 06/02/2016
Draghi = perpetual QE
PAR13:03:55 GMT - 06/02/2016
Draghi = Hollande . Wait you will see the results .
We have been waiting for 5 years .
Mtl JP 13:00:55 GMT - 06/02/2016
there is no solid growth (except of indebtedness maybe and even that that is a questionable growth area atm)
PAR12:56:40 GMT - 06/02/2016
ECB extrapolates bad figures ( permanent deflation ) , ECB does not extrapolates good figures ( solid Q1 growth ) .
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