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GVI Trading Room john  20:24:31 GMT - 06/02/2016  

3-JUNE FRIDAY
all Day Global PMIs
12:30 US- Employment
12:30US/CA- Trade


Trading Themes --
  • The major focus of trade Thursday was the ECB policy decision and press conference. Trade during the event was volatile, but lacked both rhyme and reason. Nothing of consequence came fronm the meeting with the ECB lowereing modestly its long-term growth forecasts. The basic message of President Draghi was that it will likely take an extended period of time to raise the inflation and growth rates.

  • The ADP estimate for Private Job growth on Friday was for a gain of +167K. This was close to street estimates for the data. Consensus estimates for non-farm payrolls are for a gain of +160K Friday at 12:30 GMT. The Fed has gone to great pains recently to lower the bar on acceptable employment growth from 200K per month to something closer to 100K. Top offiials indicate that the economy is virtually at full-employment but do not explain why at full-employment economic growth is so slow. The jobs data on Friday could be decisive for the Fed policy decision on June 15.

  • Oil prices held roughly steady following a decision to hold policy steady at Vienna OPEC meeting. There had been some market chatter about a possible agreement to freeze production levels. However, the final communique indicated that supply and demand are coming into balance. OPEC has lost the influence it once had over global production.

  • The GBP continues to be a key trading focus. The Brexit vote is now just three weeks away (June 23). Opinion polls are mixed but on average show growing momentum for the "Leave" side. The May U.K. Construction PMI was weaker than expected. Latest Service PMI data are due on Friday.

  • Major upcoming items Friday also include final global Service PMIs.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com




GVI Trading Room john  20:59:45 GMT - 06/02/2016  
Sentiment//Bias Indicators

20-day avg 1.1242
Pivot Point 1.1171

Fed Funds Indicators starting to suggest EURUSD over extended to the uppside??



GVI Trading Room john  21:02:03 GMT - 06/02/2016  
Fed Funds indicator suggests that at 1.1150 the EURUSD is correctly priced. Earlier today it suggested that 1.1200+ was too high.


GVI Trading Room john  09:06:33 GMT - 06/03/2016  

3-JUNE FRIDAY
all Day Global PMIs
12:30 US- Employment
12:30US/CA- Trade


Trading Themes --
  • The May U.S. jobs data today could be decisive for the Fed policy decision on June 15. The ADP estimate for Private Job growth is for a gain of +167K. This is close to street estimates for payrolls. Consensus forecasts for non-farm payrolls are for a gain of +160K at 12:30 GMT. The Fed has gone to great pains recently to lower the bar on acceptable employment growth from 200K per month to something closer to 100K. Top offiials indicate that the economy is virtually at full-employment but do not explain why at full-employment economic growth is so slow.

  • Oil prices are holding following the Vienna OPEC meeting decision to hold policies steady. There had been some market chatter about a possible agreement to freeze production levels. However, the final communique indicated that supply and demand are coming into balance. OPEC has lost the influence it once had over global production.

  • The GBP is holding steady after a better than expected Service PMI report for May. The Brexit vote is now just three weeks away (June 23). Opinion polls are mixed but on average show growing momentum for the "Leave" side.

  • Trade during the ECB policy announcement Thursday was volatile, and lacked both rhyme and reason. Nothing of consequence came from the meeting with the ECB lowereing modestly its long-term growth forecasts. The basic message of President Draghi is that it will take an extended period of time to raise Eurozone inflation and growth rates.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com




GVI Trading Room john  10:33:11 GMT - 06/03/2016  
The bottom-line on today's employment data is how it will affect the apparent recent decision by the Fed to raise rates soon:

Base levels pre-data...
odds for June hike ~26%
odds for hike by end of July ~66%

I continue to feel the June odds are about right and that the July odds are too low.


tokyo joyya  11:33:52 GMT - 06/03/2016  
maybe good nfp dow and spx make new high then fall.....


london red  11:56:29 GMT - 06/03/2016  
nfp setup. euro circling around 30/42 fibs. daily straddle for euro barely 50 pips, v low compared to avg nfp day and suggests mkt not looking for much action. initial res at 11196 and initial sup from 200dma at 11097 provides b/e points for such a straddle and these will need to be overcome for mkt to make strides further (top 11220 and 45 bottom 11087 50% of 105/117 and 11061 50% of 105/116 and 11052).
on to numbers. most f//c factor in verizon but doesnt explain some of the low side f/c those such a DB (110k), where there is some expectations for a slowing down in growth. in a growing economy a slow down in job growth, while at the business end of the unemployment rate, is sooner or later coupled with an acceleration in wage growth. since its inflation fed is looking at, a solid ahe is going to outway a miss in the headline nfp. so thats the twist for today. you fade euro strength (may only be for a few seconds or minutes) if ahe is as f/c or beats. topside res is at 11159/61, 74 and 96 before the 11220 and key 45 (a break abv which means 113/11350).


nw kw  12:03:23 GMT - 06/03/2016  
market cant be greened out gold on monthly support with xaud under 90 still get this bond rolling.


GVI Trading Room john  12:08:00 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Pre-data 10-yr 1.795% -0.8bp


Mtl JP  12:13:32 GMT - 06/03/2016  
IF I had to trade I d prefer the usd bull side orientation


tokyo joyya  12:17:30 GMT - 06/03/2016  
right now i am gbp bull bfore 23june...


london red  12:19:18 GMT - 06/03/2016  
last wks low broken so no reason to go up to break last wks high and back dwn, it will simply stay up there. so, while they may run stops over 11220 (at a real stretch), if to come back dwn, the 45 must hold and ideally be missed so 20-35 high and can still back dwn. so fade stops over 45. on the downside those big 50% fibs should bounce at least once even if data beats.


london red  12:24:54 GMT - 06/03/2016  
fade stops should be over 45.


Mtl JP  12:32:06 GMT - 06/03/2016  
+38K


tokyo joyya  12:35:43 GMT - 06/03/2016  
usd down badly


nw kw  12:36:45 GMT - 06/03/2016  
usd down badly ware the stops e/u


PAR 12:37:44 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Bureau of labor statistics has been HACKED ?

CNBC says these figures must be wrong .


london red  12:39:54 GMT - 06/03/2016  
v bad nfp. stops were over 45. u had plenty of time to get long 112-11220 so should stay long while abv there risk to 20 maybe max. they will not let you buy under 20 if to go up to 113 today.
11280 is a prev low, moves higher if broken.


Mtl JP  12:39:54 GMT - 06/03/2016  
eur 50day 1.1304


london red  12:41:20 GMT - 06/03/2016  
kijun and prev low c 11356 shud cap for the day still hve to look into numbers when calms dwn but shud if underlying not worse.


tokyo joyya  12:45:38 GMT - 06/03/2016  
if eurusd rise 1.1145 then it will be fun i am long from 1.11


PAR 12:45:49 GMT - 06/03/2016  
An emergency FED meeting to CUT RATES ?


tokyo joyya  12:48:59 GMT - 06/03/2016  
soon gbpusd coming 1.47


london red  12:50:50 GMT - 06/03/2016  
id fancy a tactical fade at 4585/90 tight stop


nw kw  12:51:26 GMT - 06/03/2016  
cad got hit from autos gov hand out time poss usa time to retile.


Belgrade Knez  12:51:58 GMT - 06/03/2016  

Friday Trading
london red 12:50 GMT 06/03/2016
id fancy a tactical fade at 4585/90 tight stop


london red, what pair is that please?



london red  12:54:54 GMT - 06/03/2016  
cable. against sentiment but air gets thin (brexit) the higher it goes. stop 25 pips encloses fib. shud be enuf if to work.


london red  12:56:13 GMT - 06/03/2016  
john, i think worth showing folk your fed futures chart now that moved significantly.


GVI Trading Room john  12:59:34 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Red ASAP

what a disaster!


Mtl JP  13:01:40 GMT - 06/03/2016  
 
close above yellow line would likely turn usd bull sentiment


london red  13:04:43 GMT - 06/03/2016  
lst wk high 11245 is the one to watch on the close. shudnt close at or below. if does gets another chance to go dwn nxt wk. but looking at data even taking out one offs you get 60k or 75k at best.


GVI Trading Room john  13:07:22 GMT - 06/03/2016  
10-yr now 1.718% -8.6

Starting to price in a recession.


GVI Trading Room john  13:09:27 GMT - 06/03/2016  
June 6 Speech - Chair Janet L. Yellen
Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
To the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pa.
12:30 p.m. ET





tokyo joyya  13:12:30 GMT - 06/03/2016  
maybe long long long eurusd gbpusd audusd short usdjpy.....


tokyo joyya  13:12:59 GMT - 06/03/2016  
its panic selling of usd today


GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  13:16:28 GMT - 06/03/2016  
As posted in the:

GVI Trading Room
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT 06/03/2016 - My Profile
Outside week key reversal days setting up in EURUSD and USDJPY


GVI Trading Room john  13:23:36 GMT - 06/03/2016  
odds for a Jun rate hike 8% by end of July ~30%
I said 66% for July was low. now I think 30% is a bit high!


nw kw  13:25:17 GMT - 06/03/2016  
usd soft for cable or bruits Sumiton.


PAR 13:25:26 GMT - 06/03/2016  
This should be great news for US stock markets . No rate hike and lower dollar .


GVI Trading Room john  13:29:57 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Fed Funds Indicators suggest EURUSD has farther to run to the upside, unless Rate hike odds by yearend rise from here.



Belgrade Knez  13:36:39 GMT - 06/03/2016  
london red

can you give your view at current situation about EURUSD please?

thank you.



Mtl JP  13:38:25 GMT - 06/03/2016  
how about a Friday joke attempt at humor from BIS next:
"Correction to NFP +35K: fat finger mistake release should be 125K"


dc CB  13:41:36 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Hillary may have just lost California to Bernie.
Her stump has been the Obama Recovery.


GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  13:44:02 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Knez, see my post in the Trading Room.


london red  13:55:23 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Knez away frm desk. Use those lvls. Res broken becomes sup and vv.


GVI Trading Room john  14:15:41 GMT - 06/03/2016  
SP -16 worry spreading?


Köln / DE Ahmed P  14:25:27 GMT - 06/03/2016  
worries about what?


GVI Trading Room john  14:31:34 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Worries about the economy slowing.


dc CB  14:59:57 GMT - 06/03/2016  
 
June 15, 2016 - 2:45PM


I believe I posted this sometime after the April FOMC Mins sparked the INSANE prognosticating about 3 or even 4 More rate hikes this year. An that There would def be one in June.




dc CB  15:10:27 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Spin in 7mins

Full crew from CNBC...Kramer sez maybe we need a different set of number.

White House Spins jobs report on CNBC



Mtl JP  15:13:47 GMT - 06/03/2016  
also voter Brainard on yak deck at 1/2past noon NYT


dc CB  16:36:58 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Talk about perpetrating the BIG LIE. Goebbels and Bernays are smiling up from the fires of hell as their acolytes of propaganda have kicked it into hyper-drive. We only need the other 7.4 million “officially” unemployed Americans to leave the work force and we’ll have 0% unemployment

The Funniest BLS Report Ever



dc CB  16:48:00 GMT - 06/03/2016  
 
hard to believe that the Yen was running to 111.50 Sun nite.


dc CB  20:10:59 GMT - 06/03/2016  
Mtl JP 13:38 GMT
how about a Friday joke attempt at humor


MARTIAL LAW DECLARED ACROSS UNITED STATES AS S&P 500 INDEX CLOSES BELOW 2100. CURFEWS IN PLACE.


tokyo joyya  06:02:55 GMT - 06/04/2016  
i think eurusd take turn around 1.145/1.155 then 1.10 or 1.095.... 1.145 is key...






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