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nw kw  19:30:16 GMT - 06/10/2016  
Fridays blunt time.


nw kw  19:27:12 GMT - 06/10/2016  
see I cant keep up to nh so adapted to wut I have and net down and still prt time need hft platform for 90% right side but jay stubborn to lat me in.


nw kw  19:22:53 GMT - 06/10/2016  
jp- did you pin s/p


Livingston nh  19:22:30 GMT - 06/10/2016  
FWIW - my system holds 2070 on a daily chart as the key level for Summer

I still hate Fridays


nw kw  19:20:19 GMT - 06/10/2016  
Mtl JP 00:54 GMT 06/10/2016 - My Profile
51.75 to 52 bux is neither fast nor big run up (brent)

Reply


eurusd
nw kw 00:46 GMT 06/10/2016
oil ran up fast up

so jp see always find bank start small end big but aud still driving might gap



GVI Trading Room john  19:15:58 GMT - 06/10/2016  
Levels to watch...
Equity guys saying 2093 is a key level for the close in S&P (2090 last). Then 2085 is a lot more important support.


Livingston nh  19:08:39 GMT - 06/10/2016  
John - the only way FED can get control is to let the market take a hit - sell some of the MONEY they are holding or hike -- FED can't let financial market dictate economy - bad things happen when the inmates run the asylum


GVI Trading Room john  19:02:50 GMT - 06/10/2016  
Sept Fed rate hike odds only 34%.


GVI 19:00:25 GMT - 06/10/2016  
bank comment earlier re: Univ of Michigan Survey

long term inflation expectations slowed from 2.5% down to new all time low 2.3%.: sep off the table


UK PO  18:43:53 GMT - 06/10/2016  
Was that the same polling organization that had remain in lead by 17 pts a few weeks ago>


london red  18:40:27 GMT - 06/10/2016  
kiwi closing gap and looks set to not close abv prev wkly highs set april may c. 7055. bearish. a lower kiwi suggests stronger risk off nxt wk with a high of just 7055 poss. so a bad start to wk sees a couple figs to downside by end of wk. one scenario.


london red  18:31:34 GMT - 06/10/2016  
nobody will be intervening to support gbp, as lower gbp helps the economy, so they will welcome it. as for the swings, hedging is taking place and it means for some buying cable if you have an obligation to sell someone cable at a higher price.


Livingston nh  18:01:43 GMT - 06/10/2016  
Cable first to undo NFP lvls - EUR up next break of 1.1225 opens NFP - SPX probably Monday corrects NFP // USD/CAD statring to pay attention to oil but it and AUD have a lot of making up to break NFP

AND THEN we get FOMC and JULY death (?) or dissent


GVI Trading Room john  18:00:08 GMT - 06/10/2016  
GBP fell almost 150 pips on the headline. A sudden price correction back higher could be a product of intervention or thin Friday markets...

I told you this day was not over before all this!


GVI Trading Room john  17:57:09 GMT - 06/10/2016  
That was the ORB/Independent online poll.

--TTN


london red  17:53:12 GMT - 06/10/2016  
cable blasted thru 14320 sup on new polls showing 55/45 for leave. biggest lead yet.


london red  17:51:53 GMT - 06/10/2016  
14187/93 dont be tempted before. v volatile.
euro under 50% fib. nxt 11219


nw kw  17:28:14 GMT - 06/10/2016  
stocks so fx in new week,bonds,


GVI Trading Room john  16:35:19 GMT - 06/10/2016  
I don't think this day is over!

crude slipping into the rig count at the top of the hour. Lower oil should be a negative for equities based on the "old" paradigm.

Al depends on the rig count?


GVI Trading Room john  15:36:50 GMT - 06/10/2016  
No credibility for Fed

Odds on a rate hike by yearend down to a new post NFP low of 72%.

July hike odds only 20%. Markets increasingly fading risk of any Fed hike. EVER!



Livingston nh  14:20:06 GMT - 06/10/2016  
John - rush to bunds but peripheral FI getting sold (reversal of earlier week buying) - EUR has more risks than just Brexit


GVI Trading Room john  14:14:47 GMT - 06/10/2016  
EURUSD demand has nothing to do with the USD its coming out of the EURGBP. cross. People selling GBP and buying EUR.


GVI Trading Room john  13:55:47 GMT - 06/10/2016  
I am wondering if falling U.S. bond yields and lower EURUSD due to QE by ECB. Eurozone seeking any yield as long as it is positive. Thanks to the central banks, the Fixed Income markets are dysfunctional.


GVI Trading Room john  13:00:07 GMT - 06/10/2016  
Some analysts are expecting the preliminary June University of Michigan Survey will be weaker than the consensus for a slight fall. Markets have little else to trade on today, so they will likely respond to an outlier.

Otherwise, I will be keeping an eye on equities today as my guide. Lets see if the inverse relationship with the EURUSD kicks in.


Mtl JP  12:31:44 GMT - 06/10/2016  
1.2680 Th's low
maybe support


Mtl JP  12:27:03 GMT - 06/10/2016  
1.2744
I have my robot parametered to try to catch a potential pop uP reaction
trgt 40pips if it gets lucky


london red  12:23:06 GMT - 06/10/2016  
loonie end of day straddle about 60 pips. with nothing else going on that a bit rich. nothing there.


Livingston nh  12:21:46 GMT - 06/10/2016  
Staying close to home early - USD/CAD daily chart still looks lower but 4 hr offers some upside - so 1.2750 for a break back above 1.28+ // stop 1.2710 (for me on 1/2 position) -- Canada employment may be weaker and that's the kicker


GVI Trading Room john  12:18:58 GMT - 06/10/2016  
I don't see key Canadian employment data impacting the USD. It can always impact USDCAD. Many will be focused on any fallout from the Alberta fires and also the recent rise in crude.


london red  12:18:52 GMT - 06/10/2016  
for those exposed by writing options, they need swings to be able to properly hedge out the risk. hence the toing and froing.


Mtl JP  12:11:35 GMT - 06/10/2016  
 
red I rather think gbp is heading towards the red line and if it does not hold... woosh 1.42-ish / 1.3850-ish

n/b trading this puppy makes me extremely leary
I am not recommending it to me


london red  12:00:06 GMT - 06/10/2016  
cable. there a case to be made for fading a fall to 4350 if its reached on a spike lower rather than a drift. not without risk as bottom may fall out if broken so keep a stop close by.


london red  11:55:13 GMT - 06/10/2016  
its just scaremongery and trying to influence undecideds/ignorants on his part. the benefit of the incompetence of exporting very little and importing a great deal means a v strong hand for the uk come trade discussions in the event of a brexit. The uk imports a great deal more to the eu than it exports and thats the key here on this issue. As for the EEA, thats another bargaining chip. Again with more coming into the UK than out, restrictions here will just harm euro members. Uk will threaten to pull out of EEA, the EU backs down and compromise achieved.
Bottom line is, almost nothing will change in terms of trade. UK is oo big a market. Global corps will ensure to it. Otherwise its affects their bottomlines and that just wont do.


Mtl JP  11:22:03 GMT - 06/10/2016  
haha, what fool Schäuble. who would have thought eh ?

No single market access for UK after Brexit, Wolfgang Schäuble says

In Der Spiegel interview German finance minister rules out Britain’s chances of enjoying bloc benefits from outside EU



GVI Trading Room john  08:25:50 GMT - 06/10/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
10-Jun FRIDAY
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 CA- Employment
12:30 US- Productivity
14:00 US- University of Michigan

13-Jun MONDAY
No Major Data
14-Jun TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
15-Jun WEDNESDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Employment
13:15 US- Industrial Production
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
16-Jun THURSDAY
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- CPI
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
17-Jun FRIDAY
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits


Trading Themes --
  • Its a risk-Off mood heading into the weekend, as equity managers globally have been taking a more cautious view on current stock prices. In the end, it is earnings, not interest rates, that will be needed to drive prices higher. Naturally, the move out of stocks has driven bond prices higher (lower yields).

  • At this hour, the US 10-yr note remains below the 1.70% line at 1.675%, -2.7bp and the German 10-yr bond is barely above zero at 0.028% -2.0bp as quantitative ease in the Eurozone continues unabated. The Japanese 10-yr is -0.146% -3.7bp. Imagine PAYING 14bps to buy a 10-yr bond. The positive U.S. yield should keep the USD relatively attractive in forex markets.

  • Key data today is Canadian job data and the preliminary University of Michigan Survey from the States. It will be a big week for central bank decisions in the week ahead with the BOJ, FED, BOE and SNB all announcing their policies. I don't see any of them changing rates. .

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com




Mtl JP  06:34:37 GMT - 06/10/2016  
how cool is this , eh ?

Nikkei, Hang Seng hit by worries about slowing global growth



Mtl JP  06:29:25 GMT - 06/10/2016  
kl fs , yes and yes although at reduced volume
need to see more uP side move , 1.2770+ and 1.2850+ would become more encouraging.
until then trade carefully


tokyo joyya  03:12:58 GMT - 06/10/2016  
Mtl JP 02:26 GMT 06/10/2016

yes from 76 sell is ok but if 80 then more good fall break...


nw kw  02:32:47 GMT - 06/10/2016  
nzd and bonds put fear in market and a/u toppish and gbpaud still on support usa will win for weekend for russal reversing.


Mtl JP  02:26:15 GMT - 06/10/2016  
 
what do u boyz n gulz think
sell or _ ?


GVI Trading Room john  20:50:56 GMT - 06/09/2016  
Big week for central bank decisions in the week ahead with the BOJ, Fed, BOE and SNB announcing their policies. I don't see any of them changing rates.


GVI Trading Room john  20:17:10 GMT - 06/09/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
10-Jun FRIDAY
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 CA- Employment
12:30 US- Productivity
14:00 US- University of Michigan

13-Jun MONDAY
No Major Data
14-Jun TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
15-Jun WEDNESDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Employment
13:15 US- Industrial Production
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
16-Jun THURSDAY
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- CPI
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
17-Jun FRIDAY
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits


Trading Themes --
  • Markets reacted early Thursday to comments by ECB President Draghi which reiterated what he said after the last ECB decision that its now up to governments to play their part and stimulate growth via fiscal means. Global equity and Fixed Income markets also reacted to growing concerns by several high profile equity fund managers who expressed worry about the current level of equity valuations.

  • I expect Draghi's comments to become the common theme from central bankers who have realized that their continuous ultra-low interest rate policies have been having unintended adverse effects on their economies and that the time has come for a Keynesian fiscal stimulus.

  • Markets reacted strongly early to the decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep rates steady at 2.25%. Many had been expecting a rate cut. Nevertheless, the policy statement noted that the New ZZealand currency is too strong and that another rate cut is possible.

  • This remains a very light week for major U.S. data. Fed officials are now into their quiet period ahead of the next Fed meeting on Wednesday, June 15.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com




GVI Trading Room john  20:13:58 GMT - 06/09/2016  
Market Sentiment Indicators
Our statistics say the EURUSD trading bias remains to the upside. 1.1350 pivot point is our immediate focus.
20-day avg 1.1232
Pivot Point 1.1350

The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Indicator is higher ( = lower odds for a rate hike this year). The two are diverging with EURUSD neutrality rising to 1.1460. Odds for one rate hike by yearend down to a post NFP low of 77%.






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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