bank cad cant be to good for audcad going up to fast and gbpcad so cad can get hit for commodity boys are getting out of cad.
london red 15:36:55 GMT - 06/15/2016
euro. pre fed if seen on this squeeze. fade 11276/80 stop over 85. if fails a fade 11295-97 stop 11315.
yellens job should be to keep july alive. if june jobs is ok mkt will play to july, so she needs to survive until then. cannot turn tack now and look silly if june jobs shows recovery. if june jobs poor, she will go back to her v dovish self.
end of day straddle 50 pips euro. not much but not much expected either. still a bit early to cover gbp and euro shorts i think unless new lows hit, so mkt still shud fade any outsized jump in gbp and euro vs usd.
GVI Trading Room john 18:00:25 GMT - 06/15/2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Policy Decision June 2016
Rates: Fed Funds Target Range Steady at 0.25%-0.50%
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up. Although the unemployment rate has declined, job gains have diminished. Growth in household spending has strengthened. Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has continued to improve and the drag from net exports appears to have lessened, but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
london red 18:11:03 GMT - 06/15/2016
euro. 46 to watch on dwnside. if cannot break they will try upside by top of hour.
NY JM 18:18:46 GMT - 06/15/2016
If there are stops they would be above 1.1300-04
Miami JN 18:20:50 GMT - 06/15/2016
usd/jpy 105.50 stops or buy?
london red 18:23:42 GMT - 06/15/2016
50% of 112/114 is at 11304 and the prev high off the last bounce. if clears that lot can squeeze to 11330. more stops abv there. shud see some interest to sell c 11359/63. abv which a fair bit of clear air to recent highs c 114. folks will be calm will under that 11304 but may be force to cover on a break (those short on brexit will need to cover pre vote, they maybe hoped for a dip on yellen to do it, so far none. but cover sooner or later they must, so a break abv 04 likely to see some followthru, certain if thru 11330).
london red 18:25:36 GMT - 06/15/2016
was a barrier at 10550, looked pretty tame to me. business end likely 105. fade initial approach maybe wortha shot as big boys likely swimming by the fig, likely to want to hold it into boj.
uk dem 18:28:31 GMT - 06/15/2016
red, do you have a fade level if 1.13 gets taken out
london red 18:31:44 GMT - 06/15/2016
11358-63 but keep the censored tight
Livingston nh 19:13:30 GMT - 06/15/2016
Mail it in Yellen - nothing new from this bunch // back to Brexit tomorrow
GVI Trading Room john 08:35:48 GMT - 06/16/2016
UK Retail Sales data better than expected with upward revisions
tokyo joyya 08:56:41 GMT - 06/16/2016
maybe good time for long gbpjpy 146/148 and eurjpy 116/117
GVI Trading Room john 09:01:03 GMT - 06/16/2016
Final EZ HICP (CPI) May 2016
yy: -0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy: +0.80 % vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.
-- Brexit could see sharp fall in GBP
-- Leave vote could lead to rise in unemployment
-- Headfwinds mean gentle rise in rates in furure
GVI Trading Room john 11:05:12 GMT - 06/16/2016
nothing positive for GBP from BOE?
Mtl JP 11:17:47 GMT - 06/16/2016
Brexit could see sharp fall in GBP (that could again, phhhfft experts)
would be a positive
Mtl JP 11:22:52 GMT - 06/16/2016
out little earlier:
Following a vote in the lower house, the government will now tell the EU to “consider [the application] as withdrawn,” Swiss Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter was quoted as saying by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung.
eurgbp profit taking ahead of ref of res at 76.4 but can try 7884 long off cloud bottom stop under 7875 maybe. at some point before ref folk will cover naked shorts on gbp and euro.
us data not setting world alight. inflation so so, philly fed prices paid better but jobs big fall.
london red 13:00:41 GMT - 06/16/2016
eurjpy dragging dwn usdjpy and eurusd. if euro under 61 can see 31-35 where could get a breather ahead of 200dma and prev low c. 11097-111. yen close under 105 bearish for 50% fib at 100.60/76. so watch the close there.
Belgrade Knez 13:12:18 GMT - 06/16/2016
why is eurjpy main traded pair today that to dragging usdjpy and eurusd down, please?
london red 13:20:10 GMT - 06/16/2016
brexit risk off has been gpy and euro short vs jpy. and some misguided hope that boj was to do something today. their hands tied til vote.
nw kw 13:32:07 GMT - 06/16/2016
even Steven was pondering xaueur lag but they saved it for last ,monthly gbp and eur at resistance at same time, o and aud but they shear had a plan bums, if gold pops 20 pips cant stop it all that jpy going into xs. thing why hold gbpaud.
2011 but usa and jpy holding in xs
london red 13:35:50 GMT - 06/16/2016
s&p. off 2059 76.4 of 18xx/21xx if revisits and breaks then 2040 poss. if back abv 2066/68 its btfd time.
nw kw 13:37:16 GMT - 06/16/2016
might long for some support or black hole.
nw kw 13:41:54 GMT - 06/16/2016
that's it eur going for black hole bets
LONDON SFH 13:45:28 GMT - 06/16/2016
Hearing Boris suspending campaigning for vote leave for now
london red 14:43 GMT 06/16/2016
cable. expect fades at 14050/56 now.
you mainly give precise levels where to fade and where to place sl, does it mean if this level to fade fail by few pips recommendation is no longer valid or .... ?
london red 15:23:00 GMT - 06/16/2016
if something is frontrun by a few pips and gives a good reaction, i class the lvl as then compromised in as far as the first test goes. folks put orders at/in front of lvls so thats why it happens. or my lvls can be off due to differing charts or simply bad tech!
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 16:28:13 GMT - 06/16/2016
Is there any news out?
london red 16:47:06 GMT - 06/16/2016
folk closing out naked shorts. was always going to come sooner or later. u might hear some rumours. they will be untrue. cable fib 14193 watch hourly close. if thru 14220 more stops run. nxt major lvl about 14320/30. keep em tight.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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