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GVI Trading Room john  14:09:41 GMT - 06/13/2016  
ICM says there was never a scheduled release time for its latest Brexit Poll today. It should be out within a couple of hours.


LONDON SFH  14:12:13 GMT - 06/13/2016  
looking at cable last 30 mins it coulkd have been leaked,,,

GVI Trading Room john  21:05:38 GMT - 06/13/2016  
Brexit Poll
46% leave
39% stay
Times Poll (prev was about even)

-- TTN

GVI Trading Room john  08:30:35 GMT - 06/14/2016  
U.K. CPI May 2016
U.K. Charts


CPI m/m: +0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
CPI y/y: +0.30% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  08:31:14 GMT - 06/14/2016  
UK CPI data a touch light. GBP softer.

london red  08:48:20 GMT - 06/14/2016  
euro. 11220. fib/100dma/prev low. close abv/below pivotal. if below opens up fibs at 11061/87. if manages to stay abv, still look to fade rallies 113-11350 with stops over 11358/63

GVI Trading Room john  09:01:47 GMT - 06/14/2016  
Eurozone Industrial Output May 2016

EZ and German Charts

mm: +1.10%vs. 0.60% exp. vs. -0.80% (r -0.70%) prev.
yy: +2.00% vs. 1.30% exp. vs. +0.20% (r ) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  12:30:50 GMT - 06/14/2016  
U.S. Advance Retail Sales May 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.50% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +1.30% (r)

x-autos & gas+0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.60%

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GVI Trading Room john  12:32:23 GMT - 06/14/2016  
Retail Sales stromger than expected

GVI Trading Room john  14:02:27 GMT - 06/14/2016  
U.S. Business Inventories April 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.10 vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.40% (r +0.30% ) prev.

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Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Trading Room john  15:48:22 GMT - 06/14/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast for 2Q16 GDP +2.80% p.a., vs. 2.5% on June 9.

-- Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john  20:36:17 GMT - 06/14/2016  
US Weekly API Crude

Reportedly +1.200 mn vs. -2.270 mn exp

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Mtl JP  20:39:45 GMT - 06/14/2016  
just look at that usdcad fly after an initial reaction dip
and screw API.
currently usd bid dominates is my take-away

GVI Trading Room john  08:32:52 GMT - 06/15/2016  
U.K. Employment April/May 2016


Claimant Count: -0.400 vs. +0 exp. vs. -2.4 (r +6.40)prev.
ILO Rate: 5.00% vs. 5.10% exp. vs. 5.10% prev.
earnings x-bonus: 2.30% vs. 2.00% exp. vs. 2.10% (+2.20%) prev.
earnings:2.00% vs. 1.70% exp. vs. 2.00% (r) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  08:33:51 GMT - 06/15/2016  
Mixed to better UK. Jobs data. GBP higher

LONDON SFH  08:37:41 GMT - 06/15/2016  
Seems odd to rally on that-think it will be short lived...

GVI Trading Room john  11:53:15 GMT - 06/15/2016  
Brexit Mori Poll (Scotland only) 58% stay 33% leave

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john  12:30:50 GMT - 06/15/2016  
U.S. PPI April 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Headline:+0.40%vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% (r. ) prev.
Core: +0.30% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% (r. ) prev.

RELEASE: Producer Price Index

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GVI Trading Room john  12:31:47 GMT - 06/15/2016  
Empire PMI June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+6.01 vs. -5.00 vs. -9.00 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  12:32:33 GMT - 06/15/2016  
PPI and Empire PMI both stronger than forecast

GVI Trading Room john  13:16:55 GMT - 06/15/2016  
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization May 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Ind Production: -0.40% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.60% ) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 74.9% vs. 75.2% exp. vs. 75.40% (r 75.30%) prev.

RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

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GVI Trading Room john  13:17:47 GMT - 06/15/2016  
Industrial Production weaker than expected.

GVI Trading Room john  14:31:00 GMT - 06/15/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -0.900 vs. -2.270 exp vs. -3.200 prev.
Gasoline: -2.600 vs. -0.350 exp vs. +1.000 prev.
Distillates: +0.800 vs. -0.330 exp vs. +1.800 prev.
Cap/Util: 90.2% vs. 91.3% prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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nw kw  14:52:50 GMT - 06/15/2016  
bank cad cant be to good for audcad going up to fast and gbpcad so cad can get hit for commodity boys are getting out of cad.

london red  15:36:55 GMT - 06/15/2016  
euro. pre fed if seen on this squeeze. fade 11276/80 stop over 85. if fails a fade 11295-97 stop 11315.
yellens job should be to keep july alive. if june jobs is ok mkt will play to july, so she needs to survive until then. cannot turn tack now and look silly if june jobs shows recovery. if june jobs poor, she will go back to her v dovish self.
end of day straddle 50 pips euro. not much but not much expected either. still a bit early to cover gbp and euro shorts i think unless new lows hit, so mkt still shud fade any outsized jump in gbp and euro vs usd.

GVI Trading Room john  18:00:25 GMT - 06/15/2016  
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Policy Decision June 2016

Rates: Fed Funds Target Range Steady at 0.25%-0.50%

RELEASE: Policy Statement

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GVI Trading Room john  18:08:56 GMT - 06/15/2016  
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up. Although the unemployment rate has declined, job gains have diminished. Growth in household spending has strengthened. Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has continued to improve and the drag from net exports appears to have lessened, but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

london red  18:11:03 GMT - 06/15/2016  
euro. 46 to watch on dwnside. if cannot break they will try upside by top of hour.

NY JM  18:18:46 GMT - 06/15/2016  
If there are stops they would be above 1.1300-04

Miami JN  18:20:50 GMT - 06/15/2016  
usd/jpy 105.50 stops or buy?

london red  18:23:42 GMT - 06/15/2016  
50% of 112/114 is at 11304 and the prev high off the last bounce. if clears that lot can squeeze to 11330. more stops abv there. shud see some interest to sell c 11359/63. abv which a fair bit of clear air to recent highs c 114. folks will be calm will under that 11304 but may be force to cover on a break (those short on brexit will need to cover pre vote, they maybe hoped for a dip on yellen to do it, so far none. but cover sooner or later they must, so a break abv 04 likely to see some followthru, certain if thru 11330).

london red  18:25:36 GMT - 06/15/2016  
was a barrier at 10550, looked pretty tame to me. business end likely 105. fade initial approach maybe wortha shot as big boys likely swimming by the fig, likely to want to hold it into boj.

uk dem  18:28:31 GMT - 06/15/2016  
red, do you have a fade level if 1.13 gets taken out

london red  18:31:44 GMT - 06/15/2016  
11358-63 but keep the censored tight

Livingston nh  19:13:30 GMT - 06/15/2016  
Mail it in Yellen - nothing new from this bunch // back to Brexit tomorrow

GVI Trading Room john  08:35:48 GMT - 06/16/2016  
UK Retail Sales data better than expected with upward revisions

tokyo joyya  08:56:41 GMT - 06/16/2016  
maybe good time for long gbpjpy 146/148 and eurjpy 116/117

GVI Trading Room john  09:01:03 GMT - 06/16/2016  
Final EZ HICP (CPI) May 2016


yy: -0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.

HICP core
yy: +0.80 % vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  09:01:38 GMT - 06/16/2016  
EZ final yy CPI unrevised.

GVI Trading Room john  11:00:26 GMT - 06/16/2016  
June 2016 Bank of England Policy Decision


Policy Unchanged (repo rate 0.50%)
Asset Purchases unch @ GBP 375 bln v. GBP 375 bn

Rates:Tighten = 0 Unchanged =9 Ease =0
Bank of England

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LONDON SFH  11:02:26 GMT - 06/16/2016  
Brexit Poll: Survation (phone): Leave 45% (+7), Remain 42% (-2), DN/WV 13% (-5

GVI Trading Room john  11:04:14 GMT - 06/16/2016  
NO surprises from BOE

-- Brexit could see sharp fall in GBP
-- Leave vote could lead to rise in unemployment
-- Headfwinds mean gentle rise in rates in furure

GVI Trading Room john  11:05:12 GMT - 06/16/2016  
nothing positive for GBP from BOE?

Mtl JP  11:17:47 GMT - 06/16/2016  
Brexit could see sharp fall in GBP (that could again, phhhfft experts)
would be a positive

Mtl JP  11:22:52 GMT - 06/16/2016  
out little earlier:
Following a vote in the lower house, the government will now tell the EU to “consider [the application] as withdrawn,” Swiss Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter was quoted as saying by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung.

Brexit could see sharp fall in GBP

Mtl JP  11:24:54 GMT - 06/16/2016

GVI Trading Room john  12:30:28 GMT - 06/16/2016  
U.S. Current Account 1Q16 (USD bln)

-124 vs. -124.8 exp. vs. -125.3 () prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  12:31:01 GMT - 06/16/2016  
U.S. Philly Fed Index June 2016
U.S. Data Charts


+4.7 vs. +1.0 exp. vs. -1.8 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  12:32:20 GMT - 06/16/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)

277K vs. 270K exp. vs. 264K (r) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  12:32:20 GMT - 06/16/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)

277K vs. 270K exp. vs. 264K (r) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  12:33:49 GMT - 06/16/2016  
U.S. Consumer Price Index May 2016
U.S. Data Charts

m/m: +0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. v +0.40% pre
y/y: +1.0% vs. +1.10% exp. v +1.10% pre
y/y: +2.20% vs. +2.20% exp. v +2.10% pre

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index

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london red  12:37:49 GMT - 06/16/2016  
eurgbp profit taking ahead of ref of res at 76.4 but can try 7884 long off cloud bottom stop under 7875 maybe. at some point before ref folk will cover naked shorts on gbp and euro.
us data not setting world alight. inflation so so, philly fed prices paid better but jobs big fall.

london red  13:00:41 GMT - 06/16/2016  
eurjpy dragging dwn usdjpy and eurusd. if euro under 61 can see 31-35 where could get a breather ahead of 200dma and prev low c. 11097-111. yen close under 105 bearish for 50% fib at 100.60/76. so watch the close there.

Belgrade Knez  13:12:18 GMT - 06/16/2016  
london red

why is eurjpy main traded pair today that to dragging usdjpy and eurusd down, please?

thank you.

london red  13:20:10 GMT - 06/16/2016  
brexit risk off has been gpy and euro short vs jpy. and some misguided hope that boj was to do something today. their hands tied til vote.

nw kw  13:32:07 GMT - 06/16/2016  
even Steven was pondering xaueur lag but they saved it for last ,monthly gbp and eur at resistance at same time, o and aud but they shear had a plan bums, if gold pops 20 pips cant stop it all that jpy going into xs. thing why hold gbpaud.
2011 but usa and jpy holding in xs

london red  13:35:50 GMT - 06/16/2016  
s&p. off 2059 76.4 of 18xx/21xx if revisits and breaks then 2040 poss. if back abv 2066/68 its btfd time.

nw kw  13:37:16 GMT - 06/16/2016  
might long for some support or black hole.

nw kw  13:41:54 GMT - 06/16/2016  
that's it eur going for black hole bets

LONDON SFH  13:45:28 GMT - 06/16/2016  
Hearing Boris suspending campaigning for vote leave for now

london red  13:53:56 GMT - 06/16/2016  
dont be daft

eur res now 61/88. if thru 36/37 then 111/11097

GVI Trading Room john  14:00:08 GMT - 06/16/2016  
U.S. NAHB Index June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

60 vs. 59 exp. vs. 58 (r) prev.


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london red  14:14:22 GMT - 06/16/2016  
cable touched 14056 fib sup. stops below. barrier at 1.40

Singapore SGFXTrader  14:15:08 GMT - 06/16/2016  
Maybe next week Cable 135

Singapore SGFXTrader  14:18:58 GMT - 06/16/2016  
Relentless shorting on the cable. No more support. Just sell and make pips

london red  14:25:32 GMT - 06/16/2016  
june 24th cable straddle +8 figs

GVI Trading Room john  14:30:23 GMT - 06/16/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

+69 vs. +64 exp vs. +65 prev.

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london red  14:43:35 GMT - 06/16/2016  
cable. expect fades at 14050/56 now.

london red  14:55:55 GMT - 06/16/2016  
prev low 14088. 50% at 14109

Belgrade Knez  15:12:05 GMT - 06/16/2016  
london red 14:43 GMT 06/16/2016
cable. expect fades at 14050/56 now.

london red

you mainly give precise levels where to fade and where to place sl, does it mean if this level to fade fail by few pips recommendation is no longer valid or .... ?

thank you.

london red  15:23:00 GMT - 06/16/2016  
if something is frontrun by a few pips and gives a good reaction, i class the lvl as then compromised in as far as the first test goes. folks put orders at/in front of lvls so thats why it happens. or my lvls can be off due to differing charts or simply bad tech!

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  16:28:13 GMT - 06/16/2016  
Is there any news out?

london red  16:47:06 GMT - 06/16/2016  
folk closing out naked shorts. was always going to come sooner or later. u might hear some rumours. they will be untrue. cable fib 14193 watch hourly close. if thru 14220 more stops run. nxt major lvl about 14320/30. keep em tight.

GVI Trading Room john  12:31:48 GMT - 06/17/2016  
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) May 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Starts: 1.164 vs. 1.150 exp. vs. 1.072 (r 1.167 ) prev.
Permits: 1.138 vs. 1.145 exp. vs. 1.116 (r ) prev.

New Residential Construction

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GVI Trading Room john  12:33:32 GMT - 06/17/2016  
Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices May 2016
Canada Data Charts

Bank of Canada Core
yy: 2.10% vs. 2.10% exp. vs. +2.20% prev.
mm: +0.40% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
yy: +1.50% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  17:03:20 GMT - 06/17/2016  
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 424 vs 414 (+10) prev
US (oil): 337 vs. 328 (+9) prev

Canada 69 vs. 65 (+4 ) prev

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GVI Trading Room john  17:04:28 GMT - 06/17/2016  
third straight week of increases. Crude a bit weaker.

SaaR KaL  17:15:24 GMT - 06/17/2016  
heading to lower then 30 IMO

GVI Trading Room john  19:00:48 GMT - 06/17/2016  
A couple of second-tier polls out in the past hour show leave in the lead. One was taken after the murder of the MP.

source: TTM

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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