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GVI Trading Room john  10:38:07 GMT - 06/21/2016  
? expresses uncertainty if Brexit will continue to fade. We won't know until the end of the week.


Mtl JP  10:34:03 GMT - 06/21/2016  
john 10:09 does the "?" after Brexit fading as an issue indicate lack of confidence in "all indicators" ? Maybe it should. Just got additional dealer's e-mail, warning of expectations of market volatility. Amongst, a bunch of leverage changes also says he "will be also be reducing leverage to 1:33 for all XAUUSD positions."
-
ps - reminder: the vote begins at 2:00am ET on Thursday, June 23, with polls scheduled to close at 5:00pm ET. Good idea of the result should be available between 10:00pm ET and 12:00am ET.


GVI Trading Room john  10:09:56 GMT - 06/21/2016  
Market Sentiment Indicators
Brexit fading as an issue? all indicators point to higher EURUSD.
20-day avg 1.1253
Pivot Point 1.1325

The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Indicator reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are 61% from 75% late Friday. It is surprising how the Brexit impacts the outlook for Fed policy for the end of the year.



GVI Trading Room john  08:19:51 GMT - 06/21/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
21-Jun TUESDAY
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
22-Jun WEDNESDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
14:30 US- Crude Oil
23-Jun THURSDAY
All Day flash PMIs
24-Jun FRIDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich


Trading Themes --
  • Today sees round one of Fed Chair Yellen's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. With the Fed having just met, and that meeting including a press conference, we doubt that she will have much new to say. Testimony will give her a chance to correct any misconceptions she feels the market has about that meeting.

  • Keep in mind, the Fed has a dual mandate: 1) to maintain full employment and 2) to manage inflation. She is responsible to the Congress to achieve these goals. On both scores the Fed has been falling short in recent years, so she could be a bit defensive today, and this being an election year could see some politicians with sharper questions than usual.

  • The German ZEW survey is due shortly. In addition to the upcoming Brexit vote Thursday, Friday will sees the key German IFo Survey and global Flash PMI data for June.

  • Markets are taking their cue from rising betting odds that the Brexit vote to "leave" the EU will fail. Latest opinion polls have been showing the "Stay" vote closing in on "Leave". Many political experts have been expecting last minute deciders to favor "Stay". Recently, betting odds have not always been reliable predictors of U.K. election outcomes.

  • The reversal of market sentiment over the weekend has probably been constructive as it can be helpful at times to let some little air out of a speculative bubble. The GBP is stronger today and USD has eased. Equity prices are steady and flight to safety demand for sovereign debt has abated.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com



GVI Trading Room 20:45:43 GMT - 06/20/2016  
June 21 Testimony - Chair Janet L. Yellen
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
15::00 GMT or 10:00 a.m. ET


GVI Trading Room john  20:08:21 GMT - 06/20/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
21-Jun TUESDAY
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
22-Jun WEDNESDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
14:30 US- Crude Oil
23-Jun THURSDAY
All Day flash PMIs
24-Jun FRIDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich


Trading Themes --
  • In addition to the upcoming Brexit vote Thurday, this week ahead will see key German ZEW (Tuesday) and IFo Surveys (Friday). Global Flash PMI data (Friday) for June are slated as well. Fed Chair Yellen testifies to Congress Tuesaday and Wednesday.

  • Markets took their lead from rising betting odds over the weekend that the Brexit vote to "leave" the EU will fail. Latest opinion polls have been showing the "Stay" vote closing in on "Leave". Many political experts have been expecting last minute deciders to favor "Stay". Keep in mind that betting odds have not always been reliable predictors of U.K. election outcomes.

  • The reversal of market sentiment over the weekend has probably been constructive as it can be helpful at times to let some little air out of a speculative bubble. The GDP traded stronger and USD has eased. Equity prices have gained as flight to safety demand for sovereign debt has abated. The "Brexit" referendum vote is on Thursday.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com




GVI Trading Room john  20:07:12 GMT - 06/20/2016  
Market Sentiment Indicators Brexit fading as an issue? Mixed bias... 20-day avg 1.1253 Pivot Point 1.1325 The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Indicator reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are 61% from 56% late Friday. It is surprising how the Brexit impacts the outlook for Fed policy for the end of the year.






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
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C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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