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GVI Trading Room john  14:22:55 GMT - 06/29/2016  
10-yr 1.457% +0.1bp

doesn't jibe with S&P's. Yields SHOULD be rising.

GVI Trading Room john  09:21:20 GMT - 06/29/2016  

12:30 US- PCE Deflator
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude

07:55 DE- Employment
08:30 GB- GDP
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless

23:30 JP- CPI
23:50:JP- Tankan Survey
00:00 CA- Holiday ALL DAY- final Mfg PMIs

Trading Themes --
  • Investors are bargain-hunting again today, looking for those babies were thrown out with the bath water last week after the Brexit vote. I continue to use the U.S. 10-yr as a barometer of flight-to-safety trading. It is currently 1.467% +1.1bp. In my opinion, anything below 1.70% is a seriously depressed yield.

  • The EU leaders' summit has extended into Wednesday without UK PM Cameron. He was not invited to today's session where leaders are discussing what to do about the expected UK departure from the EU. EU President Juncker continues to push for an early departure, but no one seems to be paying him much mind.

  • This is an active week for U.S. data which concludes with the long Independence Day weekend. Next week will see the critical June U.S. employment data. Today sees Personal Income, the PCE deflator (the top Fed inflation target), Pending Homes Sales and latest Weekly Crude Supplies.

John M. Bland, MBA

Livingston nh  21:16:14 GMT - 06/28/2016  
I think folks are overestimating how long it takes Brexit works thru the various markets (these are folks that guessed wrong) - the Fed may want to focus on the wonky natural rate BUT the 10 yr and shorter are all below the current "preferred rate of inflation" - this is abnormal and destructive -- inflation, not employment, is the RISK for the FED

AND just wait until the Trumpkins turn on the spotlight

GVI Trading Room john  20:49:08 GMT - 06/28/2016  

Market Sentiment Indicators
Flight To Safety premium steady

The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are -11% (= rate cut) from -11% late Monday.

Spot EURUSD: 1.1072
20-day avg: 1.1263
Pivot Point: 1.1060

WIDE DIVERGENCE remains as Brexit fallout remains in play. 11% odds now on one rate CUT by year end.

GVI Trading Room john  20:00:26 GMT - 06/28/2016  

Trading Themes --
  • The EU leaders' summit on Tuesday will extend into Wednesday without UK PM Cameron. He was not invited to the Wednesday session where leaders will discuss what to do about the expected UK departure from the EU. So far public comments have not been conciliatory.

  • Tueday saw an expected small upward revision to 1Q16 U.S. GDP data. A much stronger than expected Conference Board Survey was released, but it was ignored by traders beccuse it predated the Brexit market turmoil.

  • This is a fairly active week for U.S. data which concludes with the long Independence Day weekend. Next week will see the critical June U.S. employment data.

  • Markets are figuring out what to do now. Key financial markets are vulnerable with equities, the GBP and EUR trading weak. Prices in safe-haven sovereign debt markets continue to rise. Some are talking about "twin parities" in EURUSD and the GBPUSD.

John M. Bland, MBA

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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