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GVI Trading Room john  18:16:04 GMT - 07/15/2016  
Rig counts rising steadily.

GVI Trading Room john  17:55:55 GMT - 07/15/2016  
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 447 vs 440 (+7) prev
US (oil): 357 vs. 351 (+6) prev

Canada 95 vs. 81 (+14) prev

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GVI Trading Room john  14:00:58 GMT - 07/15/2016  
U of M misses

GVI Trading Room john  14:00:35 GMT - 07/15/2016  
U.S. Business Inventories June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% (r ) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  14:00:20 GMT - 07/15/2016  
Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

89.5 vs. 93.5 exp. vs. 93.5 prev

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

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GVI Trading Room john  13:16:31 GMT - 07/15/2016  
Production better than expected.

GVI Trading Room john  13:15:45 GMT - 07/15/2016  
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Ind Production: +0.60% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. -0.40% (r -0.30%) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 75.4% vs. 75.0% exp. vs. 74.90% (r ) prev.

RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

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GVI Trading Room john  12:35:03 GMT - 07/15/2016  
Retail Sales beat, prior month revised down.

GVI Trading Room john  12:34:09 GMT - 07/15/2016  
U.S. Consumer Price Index June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

m/m: +0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. v +0.20% pre
y/y: +1.00% vs. +1.10% exp. v +1.00% pre
y/y: +2.30% vs. +2.30% exp. v +2.10% pre

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index

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GVI Trading Room john  12:32:43 GMT - 07/15/2016  
U.S. Advance Retail Sales May 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.60% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.50% (r +0.20%)

x-autos & gas +0.7% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% (r +0.20%)

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GVI Trading Room john  12:30:43 GMT - 07/15/2016  
Empire PMI July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.60% vs.+5.00 vs. +6.00 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  09:01:46 GMT - 07/15/2016  
Final EZ HICP (CPI) June 2016


yy: +0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
HICP core
yy: +0.90% vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.

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EZ Final HICP. Headline HICP unrevised.

GVI Trading Room john  17:00:51 GMT - 07/14/2016  
NYT Reporting Donald Trump to name Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana for his running mate. If accurate, no surprise.

london red  14:32:06 GMT - 07/14/2016  
yen. shudv made a new high of last 55 base but couldnt so risk is a stop run on dwnside. they can still reverse it if hour closes strongly but may hv to test bids at 105 c. 23.6% fib of move off 100

GVI Trading Room john  14:30:17 GMT - 07/14/2016  
BREAKING NEWS: US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

+64 vs. +59 exp vs. +39 prev.

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london red  13:44:41 GMT - 07/14/2016  
cable. 13250 nxt base. they will prob buy first touch.

london red  13:37:38 GMT - 07/14/2016  
fwiw euro still up on the day.

london red  13:36:46 GMT - 07/14/2016  
13110 test tom. big lvl. as is 13031 wkly/mnthly.

london red  13:36:01 GMT - 07/14/2016  
friday london, friday. will be tomorrows headline.

london red  13:35:15 GMT - 07/14/2016  
eu sources: eu said to want art 50 trigger by end september. uk may suffer if delay.

Singapore SGFXTrader  13:24:25 GMT - 07/14/2016  
Red, are you serious about this? I cannot seem to find news on this.
Please kindly advise.

london red 12:50 GMT 07/14/2016
reuters/bloomberg/insert ur fav newswire...friday afta headline>>>uk set to cut rates while us set to raise so they sold off cable.

london red  13:11:26 GMT - 07/14/2016  
for tom tgt certainly breaks yesterday low in 11040's but ultimately as i say, double top so 108/109. while stop abv 11215 not touched that wud b tgt range.

london red  13:08:36 GMT - 07/14/2016  
gvi, a suggestion to refresh your euro/fed funds chart. by tomorrow there will bee some v lrg catch up.

Belgrade Knez  13:08:20 GMT - 07/14/2016  

london red

what would you look for target of short EU and GU please?

thank you.

london red  13:06:36 GMT - 07/14/2016  
maybe euro can get a reprieve to 21-30 this hour cable to 40. but both shud be sold.

london red  12:54:15 GMT - 07/14/2016  
euro. they will try to sell 43/50 if seen during nxt hr. if not seen they will follow any break lower.

london red  12:52:28 GMT - 07/14/2016  
ye. trying to hv a look at 10605/30. sup at 55. bids at 105 some stop will be building sub 105

london red  12:50:41 GMT - 07/14/2016  
reuters/bloomberg/insert ur fav newswire...friday afta headline>>>uk set to cut rates while us set to raise so they sold off cable.

london red  12:48:21 GMT - 07/14/2016  
sales and conf on friday can unsettle some nerves . 10 year current at pullback low seen on brexit 132.25. already below 50% fib and argues for full retracement.

london red  12:38:55 GMT - 07/14/2016  
they will say ppi mostly energy and transitory. energy was transitory on the way dwn now theyll say same on way up. everything is transitory it seems. only death and taxes are permanent.
they bought the cable dip to 3340 a second test wont hold.
euro topped out just ahead of 50% fib at 11170 and daily kijun at 11171. big lvls.

dc CB  12:36:46 GMT - 07/14/2016  
But instead Bernanke is running around the world pushing his Helicopter Money Stimulus idea

dc CB  12:35:38 GMT - 07/14/2016  
So All Time Highs in SToX...almost every day of th week.
Falling Jobless Claims
Rising PPI

by any "sane" metric rates should be hiked by a min of 1% at the next meeting

GVI Trading Room john  12:32:07 GMT - 07/14/2016  
U.S. PPI June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Headline: +0.50% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.30% (r. ) prev.
Core: +0.40% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.40% (r. ) prev.

RELEASE: Producer Price Index

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GVI Trading Room john  12:30:46 GMT - 07/14/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)

254K vs. 265K exp. vs. 254K (r 270K ) prev.

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PAR 11:11:08 GMT - 07/14/2016  
Looks like Carney not so sure Brexit will happen soon.
So back in a pre Brexit situation and no action required.

Brexit didnt happen yet .

tokyo joyya  11:08:46 GMT - 07/14/2016  
sep oct rate cut expect if really needed...

london red  11:08:32 GMT - 07/14/2016  
carney said earlier they will assess initially today and fully next month. next month they will throw the book it at, hence the pouncing on the blip weve just seen. closing no higher than 13340 leaves a bearish structure with a nice long daily wick, while no higher than 13270 further increases the pressure to dwnside.

Brisbane Flip  11:06:45 GMT - 07/14/2016  
John its a multi year process.

It would have been different if the market was in chaos as was predicted 3 weeks ago (when Carney assured the market) but why cut rates with equities going gangbusters (US all time highs)

kl shawn  11:06:42 GMT - 07/14/2016  
status quo=buy stocks?

GVI Trading Room john  11:05:27 GMT - 07/14/2016  
Earlier (below)

"Opinions are split about what policy decision the Bank of England will reach today. The Majority view seems to favor one 25bp rate cut. Few are still anticipating a 50bp reduction in rates.

Also keep in mind that the BOE meets next in just three weeks time. I don't see any compelling reason for an immediate policy move."

GVI Trading Room john  11:03:18 GMT - 07/14/2016  
BOE keeps rates unchanged as I had expected. They meet again in three weeks, so there was no rush.

GVI Trading Room john  11:00:17 GMT - 07/14/2016  
July 2016 Bank of England Policy Decision


Unchanged (repo rate 0.50%)
Asset Purchases unch @ GBP 375 bln v. GBP 375 bn

Rates:Tighten = 0 Unchanged = 8 Ease =1
Bank of England

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Livingston nh  20:54:27 GMT - 07/13/2016  
Par - US budget deficit is proof of fiscal contraction (abetted by FED holding of long term paper) -- the foolish consequence of BUSH II/OBAMA fiscal policy

Livingston nh  20:49:37 GMT - 07/13/2016  
Osborne is gone - the false god of austerity should depart - Cameron might have sacked the fellow and stayed around a bit

Carney is threatening monetary moves and it might serve post Brexit England to get on with fiscal moves ( Heathrow, southern rail, et al) because govvie debt is just currency with a coupon

GVI Trading Room john  18:52:19 GMT - 07/13/2016  
Boris Johnson named new UK Foreign Secretary

PAR 18:38:05 GMT - 07/13/2016  
U.S. Budget Deficit Widens to Near Two-Year High in June

Shortfall has largely been a result of weaker corporate tax revenues

GVI Trading Room john  18:24:51 GMT - 07/13/2016  
Philip Hammond named UK Chancellor replacing Osborne.

PAR 18:14:15 GMT - 07/13/2016  
Beige book . Another boost for US equities . No rate hike on the horizon .

GVI Trading Room john  18:03:28 GMT - 07/13/2016  
U.S. Fed Beige Book
U.S. Data Charts

Modest growth in most regions

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GVI Trading Room john  14:32:11 GMT - 07/13/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -2.500 vs. -2.500 exp vs. -4.053 prev.
Gasoline: +1.200 vs. -1.200 exp vs. 1.368 prev.
Distillates: +4.100 vs. +0.030 exp vs. -1.800 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI Trading Room john  14:03:33 GMT - 07/13/2016  
July 2016 Bank of Canada Policy Decision

target unchanged at 0.50%

RELEASE: Bank of Canada

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GVI Trading Room john  12:32:16 GMT - 07/13/2016  
U.S. Import Prices June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.20% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +1.40% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  09:01:38 GMT - 07/13/2016  
Eurozone Industrial Output June 2016
EZ and German Charts

mm: -1.2% vs. -0.80% exp. vs. 1.10% (r 1.4%) prev.
yy: 0.50% vs. 1.40% exp. vs. +2.00% (r +2.20% ) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  20:43:01 GMT - 07/12/2016  
US Weekly API Crude

Reportedly +2.20 mn vs. -3.20 mn exp

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GVI Trading Room john  17:48:58 GMT - 07/12/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q18 2.30% vs. 2.4% on JUly 6

london red  15:52:05 GMT - 07/12/2016  
yen. Business end kicks off at 10555 prev low then 10580. Dailyy closs abv that lot tgts 10680/107. But we might just run the stops and miss on the closes today.

GVI Trading Room john  15:30:10 GMT - 07/12/2016  
Sanders endorses Hillary for President.

as expected.

GVI Trading Room john  14:02:05 GMT - 07/12/2016  
U.S. BLS JOLTS Survey May 2016
U.S. Data Charts

mln: +5.500 vs. 5.700 exp. vs. 5.784 prev (r +5.850) rev.

BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

GVI Trading Room john  14:00:32 GMT - 07/12/2016  
U.S. Wholesale Inventories June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.60% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  13:39:19 GMT - 07/12/2016  
Bullard has turned into a dove.

GVI Trading Room john  13:38:35 GMT - 07/12/2016  
St Louis Fed President Bullard
-- current policy narrative has outlive usefulness
-- expects real output growth of 2% over next 2-1/2 yrs
-- forecasts FF of 0.63% over same period
-- no reason to forecast recession.

dc CB  15:35:27 GMT - 07/11/2016  
there are 13 FED Speakers scheduled this week, so 1 down 12 to go.

GVI Trading Room john  15:07:48 GMT - 07/11/2016  
Fed George (hawk):
-- Should raise rates gradually.
-- Rates are too low.
-- Low rates can cause financial instability.

GVI Trading Room john  15:01:18 GMT - 07/11/2016  
BBC BST = US EST +5hrs):

"The 1922 committee of Tory MPs - which is overseeing the leadership contest - is holding talks with the Conservative Party board over formally declaring Mrs May the winner, after Mrs Leadsom dropped out.

A statement is expected from its chairman, Graham Brady, at about 17:00 BST.

Mrs May is also expected to make a public statement, at about 18:00 BST, according to BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith."

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:57:23 GMT - 07/11/2016  
10:52 (UK) Prime Min Cameron spokesperson: will set out arrangements for leadership handover shortly; set to hand over prime ministership by Weds night

- Source

london red  12:36:55 GMT - 07/11/2016  
cable. if can hold 20/10 they can try for higher again otherwise done here on this blip.

london red  11:47:53 GMT - 07/11/2016  
boe may or may not act, but currently 0.25 cut is about 2/3 in the price now a bit less. so mkt likely to go into meet short, hence worth fading sterling as policy will need to be adjusted regardless of who is prime minister. 13030/60 and 131/13120 will be zones folk fade.

GVI Trading Room john  11:34:32 GMT - 07/11/2016  
May can be named as leader much earlier than expected -- Brady

LONDON SFH  11:32:23 GMT - 07/11/2016  

UK JY  11:29:34 GMT - 07/11/2016  
One step closer to invoking Article 50?

LONDON SFH  11:21:13 GMT - 07/11/2016  
Only adding to the already farcical state of politics in this country..

GVI Trading Room john  11:19:57 GMT - 07/11/2016  
Chatter Gove could re-enter the race. I have no idea if that is possible?

GVI Trading Room john  11:14:36 GMT - 07/11/2016  
Leadsom officially pulls out of Leadership race.
-- Says May has the support of more than 60% of our parliamentary colleagues
-- TTN

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