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Livingston nh  17:17:34 GMT - 07/13/2016  
Still a negative real yield - when this inflation thing goes tits up the move will be a thing of beauty (maybe economists will replace the Butcher's "first thing")


GVI Trading Room john  17:14:14 GMT - 07/13/2016  
30-yr 2.172%
bid-to-cover 2.48 vs. 2.42
Strong


dc CB  12:40:29 GMT - 07/13/2016  
zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 4m4 minutes ago

2, 3, 5Y all trading special in repo, 10Y -0.05%


GVI Trading Room john  12:08:58 GMT - 07/13/2016  
equities mild risk on
Dax +19
DJ +9
SP +2
bonds mild risk off
10-yr 1.476% -4.4bp

EUR Mixed on its crosses not a EUR or USD market at the moment


GVI Trading Room john  08:51:27 GMT - 07/13/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

13-Jul WEDNESDAY
14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Beige Book
14-Jul THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
11:00 GB- Bank Of England
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15-Jul FRIDAY
09:00 EZ- final HICP
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan


Trading Themes --
  • The new Prime Minister Theresa May will be installed today amid a lot of pageantry. We expect her to reaffirm that Brexit is a done deal. I get the feeling that although the establishment does not like it, that it is truly worried that voters of all persuasions are lokng for a change in the status quo and will be holding their feet to the fire. The GBP is trading about steady on the day.

  • Markets are waiting for the details of Japanese PM Abe's program to lift the economy out of deflation via a fiscal stimulus. The chatter is that Abe is putting together a USD 100bln stimulus plan. It will be announced later this month. Long-time observers of such programs from Japan have almost invariably been disappointed that the reality has fallen short of the rhetoric. We will see. USDJPY is a touch weaker after failing at a run at 105.00 on Tuesday.

  • Global equities are mixed early today while bond yields generally are lower. The U.S. 10-yr note is 1.4810% -3.9bp. Fed Funds futures odds on one rate hike this year have risen from near zero to greater than one in three. This week's onslaught of Fed talk continues.

  • No rate changes are seen from the Bank of Canada today, although opinions are split about the extent of possible ease to be announced by the Bank of England on Thursday.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com




GVI Trading Room john  20:47:07 GMT - 07/12/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

13-Jul WEDNESDAY
14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Beige Book
14-Jul THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
11:00 GB- Bank Of England
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15-Jul FRIDAY
09:00 EZ- final HICP
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan


Trading Themes --
  • Markets remain optimistic after the faster than expected decision a new Prime Minister. Theresa May is a known quantity, having been Home Secretary. She will take office on Wednesday. Many are worried about who will been in her government and about how difficult the Brexit discusions will be once they get underway, both with the EU and in the U.K. Parliament. The GBP saw strong short-covering demand again on Tuesday.

  • Markets have been reacting strangely to proposals by Japanese PM Abe to lift the economy out of deflation via a fiscal stimulus after strong victories in weekend elections. The chatter is that Abe is putting together a USD 100bln stimulus plan. It will be announced later this month. The Nikkei has advanced on these developments and curiously the JPY has eased. My guess is that JPY weakness is more the product of an unwinding of post-Brexit flight-to-safety demand.

  • Higher global equities has seen another solid rise in the yield in the U.S. 10-yr note to above 1.50% today (last 1.52%, +8.8bp) as flight to safety demand for U.S. sovereign debt abates. Fed Funds futures odds on one rate hike this year have risen from near zero to about one in three. This week's onslaught of Fed talk continues.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com







Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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