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GVI Trading Room john  13:52:55 GMT - 07/15/2016  
Fed Funds futures now 48% odds for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year. One again leading the Fed sheep?


GVI Trading Room john  13:43:47 GMT - 07/15/2016  
US 10-yr 1.568% +3.9bp on positive U.S. data today. Weighing on EURUSD.


london red  11:27:53 GMT - 07/15/2016  
yen. Tgt for move off lower channel would be top channel (together forming a wedge) currently at 10651. Fib res at 10684 close to prev high.


dc CB  10:36:57 GMT - 07/15/2016  
Cleveland
ciity of light, city of magic.

Burn On



dc CB  10:30:29 GMT - 07/15/2016  
FYI
US Presidential Nominating Conventions - last 2 weeks in July.

July 18-21 Republicans meet in Cleveland Ohio. No Fly Zone 30 mile range. Expect violence.

July 25- 28 Democrats and the Queen Apparent hold pre-corination confab in Philadelphia. very possible violence...

Will the MarkIts care?


london red  10:22:17 GMT - 07/15/2016  
yen. hourly channel running off circa 10050 to present, 10559, rising about 5 pips each hour. should hold at least once. if cannot make hourly close at least 10570 once tested, may have to test 105110


GVI Trading Room john  09:19:44 GMT - 07/15/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

15-Jul FRIDAY
09:00 EZ- final HICP
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan

19-Jul TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
20-Jul WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
21-Jul THURSDAY
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:45 EZ- ECB decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
22-Jul FRIDAY
All Day- Flash PMIs
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI


Trading Themes --
  • The terrorist attack on civilians in Nice Thursday evening has cast a pall over the markets with reportedly 84 killed at Bastille Day celebration.

  • The Bank of England decision to hold rates steady Thursday was a surprise after dovish comments immediately after Brexit by BoE Governor Carney. The Bank of England will meet again in just three weeks and they will know a lot more then than now.

  • Bank of England members gave markets strong signals that a rate cut could be on the cards for August 4. That decision will be determined at that time. The GBP is higher on the day vs. the EUR and USD.

  • Talk today about a more aggressive than expected Japanese stimulus program sees the JPY weaker vs. the USD and EUR again.

  • Global equities are mixed. Bond yields are mixed as well. The U.S. 10-yr note is 1.541% +1.2bp. Fed Funds futures odds on one rate hike this year are about 35%. This week's onslaught of Fed babble continues.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com




GVI Trading Room john  20:30:17 GMT - 07/14/2016  

Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.

Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are +35% from +43% late Wednesday.

Spot EURUSD: 1.1120
20-day avg: 1.1139
Pivot Point: 1.1125

Flight-to-safety trade fading. Markets are always wanting to close the gap.


GVI Trading Room john  20:22:39 GMT - 07/14/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

15-Jul FRIDAY
09:00 EZ- final HICP
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan

19-Jul TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
20-Jul WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
21-Jul THURSDAY
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:45 EZ- ECB decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
22-Jul FRIDAY
All Day- Flash PMIs
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI


Trading Themes --
  • Markets were firmly convinced early Thursday that the Bank of England would be cutting their deposit rate by 25bps today following dovish comments immediately after Brexit by BoE Governor Carney. I agree that Carney had given a very clear easing signal at the time, but I also have observed that the world had not ended, and that a lot had changed since he had made those comments. I felt they would not ease today and they didn't.

  • Its important to note that the Bank of England will meet again in just three weeks and they will know a lot more at that time than now. Furthermore, with the repo rate already at a scant 50bps, they might want to keep their powder dry. Bank of England members gave markets strong signals that a rate cut is on the cards for August 4. I state again that the decision will be determined at that time. The GBP is closing higher on the day vs. the EUR and USD.

  • The new talk today was about a more aggressive stimulus program by Japanese PM Abe. Talk is about "helicopter monry" following a meeting between Abe and former Fed Chair Bernanke this week. A radical stimulus program would be out of character for a Japanese government. Nevertheless, the JPY is weaker vs. the USD and EUR. USDJPY easily took out 105 resistance today.

  • Global equities are mostly up, while bond yields generally are higher as equities improve. The U.S. 10-yr note is 1.529% +6.2bp. Fed Funds futures odds on one rate hike this year are about 43%. This week's onslaught of Fed babble continues.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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