It seems to me that the news of the day is that Turkey's weekend experience has been ignored - no discounting of secondary effects by market, especially in the EUR -- sweeping under the rug works until the rug gets lifted - Erdogan is a PROBLEM
How's that Turkish/EU visa Request/Demand by Erdogan doing? Will Turkish refugees join Syrian counterparts?
dc CB 14:26:41 GMT - 07/18/2016
Cameron wanted to fast track Turkey's entry into the EU. The Brexit NO vote was decried by the young, the educated, a progressives and was characterized as a generational Divide ...them v the Old, ignorant, racist xenophobes.
Wonder if Erdogan's purging thousands this weekend, gives these Lib/Progressives pause. Prob not.
dc CB 14:46:29 GMT - 07/18/2016
20K Detained or Suspended After Failed Turkey Coup Attempt
hk ab 15:03:57 GMT - 07/18/2016
20K Detained or Suspended After Failed Turkey Coup Attempt
What if they escape? how many officers do they need to keep up with this number? 2k? 1k?
dc CB 15:16:37 GMT - 07/18/2016
Turkish Incirlik air base, which is not only the headquarters to the US 39th Air Base Wing but also vaults over 50 B1 nuclear bombs.
but I guess we're good with whatever Erdogan is up to?
Right? Obama, Kerry, we're good right? ?/
GVI Trading Room john 20:42:56 GMT - 07/18/2016
Report possible shooting incident in Germany on Twitter
cable res at 65/70. if fails to cap may squeeze to 13210/30. continue to fade rallies.
dc CB 13:46:26 GMT - 07/20/2016
Mark Johnson, HSBC’s global head of foreign exchange cash trading in London, was taken into custody at John F. Kennedy International Airport Tuesday and is scheduled to appear before a judge in federal court in Brooklyn Wednesday morning, said the people, who asked not to be named because the case hasn’t been made public. He’s charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud
yen. if they manage to pop 70 and then 84/87, there are lt channel lines on daily/wkly charts, lvls to watch are 10702/09 and 33.
GVI Trading Room15:35:55 GMT - 07/20/2016
S&P cuts Turkey sovereign debt rating to BB- fromBB+
Livingston nh 16:27:08 GMT - 07/20/2016
Turkey cb cut 1/4 point in response to coup turmoil and Moody's warned - S&P jumped ahead w/ ratings cut but it was already JUNK rated - a Moody's cut now investment grade gone - a fast sell-off in TRY today - $3.2 bio dump in bond holdings( Barc est.) on downgrade
The CB has been criticized by Erdogan in the past so you can be sure there is no more "independence" in policy decisions
dc CB 16:28:10 GMT - 07/20/2016
Erdogan spokesman responds to claim coup was staged: “It’s comparable to the claim that 9/11 was orchestrated by the US."
dc CB 17:51:16 GMT - 07/20/2016
US ANAList humor: Papa John's Pizza Inc
"After speaking with several large operators and industry contacts, we believe the recent decline in casual dining restaurant segment fundamentals—traffic down 3% to 5% the past several weeks—may be the result of consumers eating more at home amid the current political/social backdrop, which we believe could last through the November election,” KeyBanc analysts wrote in a note published Tuesday, cited by MarketWatch. Diners’ shift to a preference for convenience will benefit pizza delivery businesses like Papa John’s, according to KeyBanc.
“We believe investors’ near-term neutral sentiment towards Papa John’s reflects a ‘missed it’ mentality following a meaningful recovery in its share price since reporting first-quarter results on May 3,” the note said.
GVI Trading Room18:17:57 GMT - 07/20/2016
Japanese gov't eyes over 20 tril. yen stimulus to support economy- Kyodo News
EZ PMIs mixed vs. expectations and previous month.
london red 08:20:26 GMT - 07/22/2016
cable. some pretty big downside baked into pmi f/c. anything close to consensus likely to see cable bought and a test of 13305 then 13318/23. sup at 13220/25 and 13194 fib. daily straddle around 80 pips.
GVI Trading Room john 08:22:23 GMT - 07/22/2016
UK consensus is for big drops. See top of page.
london red 08:24:25 GMT - 07/22/2016
i think manu around 50 and servs around 47 baked into price. its going to take more to take cable lower and keep it lower. mkt is a bit short and that needs to be worked out before can drive below 128 again.
perth wtr 08:29:56 GMT - 07/22/2016
red, you buying cable today? whats the target?
LONDON SFH 08:30:36 GMT - 07/22/2016
*U.K. COMPOSITE PMI PLUNGES TO 7-YEAR LOW AFTER BREXIT VOTE
flash PMI mixed vs. estimates but both sharply lower mo/mo.
perth wtr 08:34:11 GMT - 07/22/2016
john, i bought cable heavily because of that SVC typo, now you have to be responsible ;)
london red 08:34:43 GMT - 07/22/2016
perth watch the hourly close. lot of folk short and likely to buy dip. data isnt great but wasnt expected to be great. anything below 13160/65 likely to see further weakness but think they will save it by top of hour to close abv 132.
london red 08:45:27 GMT - 07/22/2016
mkt seems to think brexit can pass over quickly just because it wants to. it will takes months to work itself into hard data. but for now there is a nasty overhang of short positions that is stopping the pound moving lower and staying lower. once it is worked out and the data starts coming through cable will move lower.
GVI Trading Room john 08:48:30 GMT - 07/22/2016
Red. well stated...
london red 08:52:54 GMT - 07/22/2016
pmis are just surveys but do suggest a contraction of about 0.4% gdp. cable shud be down a few figs on that normally, but the mkt is short and limits downside even on a stunning downside number like today.
manila tom 08:54:48 GMT - 07/22/2016
red, i dont see much upside either even if market is short
london red 09:01:34 GMT - 07/22/2016
hampers dwnside tom, you get them closing out on the dips. you want folk selling breaks lower not buying. see we moved under 50% fib of 130/133 at 13177 but no follow thru-they prefer to pick top-no inclination to sell. if goes under 13160/65 can chance a run at yest low in low 50's and cover if break under 50 doesnt hold. cos thats been the play of late, downside breaks getting covered/bought.
Crude falls following another rise in the rig count.
london red 17:17:10 GMT - 07/22/2016
theres a channel at 10959 on the wkly euro. if taken in anger its a breakout for a couple figs lower eventually. bit late in the day for it tho. if they do run stops then could get close to that brexit low.
Haifa ac 17:34:29 GMT - 07/22/2016
Livingston nh 17:36:06 GMT - 07/22/2016
Won't be long now -- "In another sign of Venezuela’s worsening economic crisis, fast food giant McDonald’s announced Thursday it will have to stop selling Big Macs because of an ongoing food shortage in the country and has found the classic burger missing a key ingredient: bread." First, no beer and NOW no Big Macs for lack of bread -- "Venezuela’s economy is expected to contract by 10 percent this year according to an estimate by the International Monetary Fund. Inflation could rise as high as 700 percent in 2016. The country’s foreign reserves have fallen to less than $12 billion as it tries to pay down debts."
Now you see why the EURUSD fell out of bed all of a sudden.
Livingston nh 17:42:40 GMT - 07/22/2016
Haifa - the perpetrator better be a Kurd and not a Turkish Muslim just back from the ISIS party in Syria -- Germany, like France, not so far removed from its Dark Side history
Speaking of France -- Hollande gave May a reminder of reasons for historical enmity - it never changes
Haifa ac 17:50:46 GMT - 07/22/2016
Europe is blind as a bat. THey refuse to understand what is going on.
Only Trump can save the world now.
GVI Trading Room john 18:21:40 GMT - 07/22/2016
Munich terrorist event apparently ongoing according to press reports.
KL KL 23:46:45 GMT - 07/24/2016
Terrorist Explosion in Germany Again??
Is this the Rise of President Erdogan Terrorist Brother of Islam Army...all across europe to cause Massive disruption in Euro Zone...while Consolidating his position?..... turkey is no more Secular...its ISLAMIST IS Islam in disguise!!..The greatest SHAM Coup for the world to see and justify the Crackdown ..murder and torture!! No islam nation is any good.....Rant for the day!! Be not Romantics to Evil..>Fight back like Isreal...the only way EVIL understand lesson of life!!
Sell EURUSD... start small here 1.0967.... above 1.1 relentless
Sydney ACC 02:14:14 GMT - 07/25/2016
Nobel Prizes have been awarded to over 850 individuals, of whom at least 20% were Jewish or people of Jewish descent, although Jews comprise less than 0.2% of the world's population (or 1 in every 500 people). Overall, Jews or people of Jewish descent have won a total of 41% of all the Nobel Prizes in economics, 28% of medicine, 26% of physics, 19% of chemistry, 13% of literature and 9% of all peace awards.
On the other hand there have been 12 Muslim recipients of Nobel Prizes. Seven individuals were awarded for peace, two for literature, one for physics and two for chemistry. There are 1.6 billion Muslims in the world roughly 23% of the world's population.
Brisbane Flip 03:21:15 GMT - 07/25/2016
The Nobel prize doesn't carry the same level of gravitas it did a generation ago. Some pretty dubious winners and notable omissions have made it more pop cultural trivia.
I'd say its up there battling subjectivity wise with the yearly "Sexiest Man(or Woman) Alive"
london red 15:07:18 GMT - 08/02/2016
yen. 10075 may provide a bounce. cable. pmis likely to beat while hard data likely to miss going forward. s&p. 2135-38 shud see buyers. if not then expect sharper falls but always remember that as soon as it stops falling it will go all the way back up so bftd. euro. stops over 30 may squeeze cloud top but fading 57-65 stop over 11308 shud work into nfp. yes they will as usual go in long. take profit ahead of event.
GVI Trading Room john 08:01:09 GMT - 08/03/2016
EZ- Final Service PMI
52.9 vs. 52.7 exp. vs. 52.7 (flash)
50.5 vs. 50.3 exp. vs. 50.3 (flash)
54.4 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.6 (flash)
some expectation of no cut tomorrow from boe. mkt f/c a 25bp cut. if no cut youd expect to see 13480/13508 tested and broken intraday but no close abv there on a daily basis. a lot of folk are looking for 135/138 zone to fade for 120.
perth wtr 08:51:17 GMT - 08/03/2016
red, so it is all free to buy today and tomorrow?
think low has been seen today?
london red 08:56:19 GMT - 08/03/2016
mkt on the whole forecasting cut so you may see some selling later. if breaks 13360/65 fib then can move higher but i would be surprised if not sold tomorrow early london am as mkt expecting a cut.
i think they want to see first batch of hard data from july, we will get that in coming days/weeks. but mines a minority view, ask most and they are looking for 25-40bp and additional qe.
perth wtr 08:58:28 GMT - 08/03/2016
thanks red, i prefer your 'minority view'
most means wrong
GVI Trading Room john 09:00:49 GMT - 08/03/2016
Eurozone Retail Sales June 2016
mm: 0.00% vs 0.00% exp. vs. +0.40% (r ) prev.
yy: +1.60% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. +1.60% (r ) prev.
looser policy will certainly be called for in the monthing months are it will be needed, but think mpc will be looking at markets, seeing relative calm and assuming they can afford to sit tight and hope maybe data catches up to the markets optimist views. thats probably why they may wait. but data is certain to get worse over the coming months. current projects are being rushed through to completion but other than that everything is at a standstill waiting for some indication on how the government is to proceed. so we will go lower over time. id fancy a long ft100/short ft250 even here and short cable 135-138 stop a little abv that range for 120 and poss towards parity.
perth wtr 09:14:16 GMT - 08/03/2016
what's the timeframe?
would you be chasing it down if your 'ideal' range not seen?
london red 09:20:11 GMT - 08/03/2016
pull backs are always seen. mkt is well short gbp in any case. once they clear the specs and hard data comes thru it will go on its famed run. may take 6 months to crack 125 but shud see at least 120 but we turn up. brexit will take years. certainly longer than the 2 year timeframe after article 50. thats why they are censored themselves and dont want to trigger early.
perth wtr 09:25:30 GMT - 08/03/2016
red, will you be selling eurgbp to hedge?
london red 09:30:48 GMT - 08/03/2016
there is no hedge in spot fx. you are adding exposure by introducing another element. sup for cable c 13318. you would want to see a strong close to current hour or at v latest next hour to crack 60-65 following hour. otherwise nearterm top in place. euro sup at 11170
tokyo joyya 11:49:17 GMT - 08/03/2016
london red 09:20 GMT 08/03/2016
i agree in 6 months possible 1.2/1.25 short and mid term buy buy....
but do not think 1.28 long term double bottom possible?1985 low 1.2999
what do you think all?
london red 11:54:35 GMT - 08/03/2016
adp tends to be quite stable, doesnt have the swings shown in nfp, so would expect number to be as f/c or slightly firmer. might give a boost for usd to test res vs gbp and euro. but as long as 11318 and 11170 hold then expect status quo range trading.
db would be possible if we dont go up to 135/138. all db will serve is to squeeze specs and allow rm to sell at better levels. so if those better levels already seen, i doubt it will happen, as in, a fully played out db. youd expect some natural sup at those lows so you wouldnt rule out a bounce of some kind. but highs should get lower and lower.
euro. run stops under cloud base at 70. dwn on back of strong eurpln selling (swiss frank directive yest).
euro sup at 26 then lrg 11090-95. for those interested eurpln 425-427 sup for 430-432.
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 18:08:50 GMT - 08/03/2016
This appeared to be the catalyst for the last EUR smackdown
13:46 (EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany): there are possibilities for adjusting QE - German press - too early to tell what Brexit impact will be on price development
- Source TradeTheNews.com
london red 18:16:39 GMT - 08/03/2016
jay those comments are nothing new and euro was going earlier. big moves in pln cross frm yesterdays swiss loan ruling. usdpln also well dwn, should be opposite if euro weak. poland is quite unloved, as many short as gbp. so some scrambling last day or two.
dc CB 19:39:34 GMT - 08/03/2016
FED’S KASHKARI: I DON’T SEE MUCH INFLATIONARY PRESSURE
then again he couldn't
Unbiased private-sector efforts to calculate the real rate of inflation have yielded a rate of around 7% to 13% per year, depending on the locale--many multiples of the official rate of around 1% per year.
The Social Security system would be revealed as unsustainable if real inflation (7+% annually) were made public.
Global investors might start demanding yields on Treasury bonds that are above the real rate of inflation. If inflation is running at 7%, then bond buyers would need to earn 8% per year just to earn a real return of 1%.
BOE over-delivered..cable lower...think cable bounces and ends higher as they realsie the BOE can do little more and the economy is still drifting down the swanee
LONDON SFH 11:05:53 GMT - 08/04/2016
but...brexit is CLEARLY great fro everyone eh!?
jkt abel 11:08:53 GMT - 08/04/2016
so JPM actually got it right!!! talking about inside info!!!
everyone else fced 0.25 cut, JPM said 0.50
london red 11:16:51 GMT - 08/04/2016
we are about at straddle breakeven territory, so if goes below flash lod will move further to 13060, otherwise may see some covering after carney. further action not ruled out, that plus the extra qe keep cable lower.
Mtl JP 11:23:58 GMT - 08/04/2016
has Carney's BoE entered into ccy war ?
london red 11:28:24 GMT - 08/04/2016
ahead of carney strddle here still around 80 pips. nxt sup/res
-- Growth will be considerably lower than BOE had previously expected
-- Very confident stimulus will get to households and businesses
-- BOE targets inflation, but not indifferent to output and inflation.
GVI Trading Room john 16:54:24 GMT - 08/04/2016
Atlanta Fed GDPnow 3Q16 forecast 3.70% from 3.60% on Aug 4.
GVI Trading Room john 12:31:33 GMT - 08/05/2016
U.S. Employment July 2016
NFP Jobs: +255 vs. +180K exp. vs. +287K(r +292K) prev.
Rate: 4.90% vs. 4.80% exp. vs. 4.90% prev.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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