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GVI Trading Room john  14:00:08 GMT - 07/18/2016  
U.S. NAHB Index July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

59 vs. 60 exp. vs. 60 (r) prev.


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GVI Trading Room john  14:00:34 GMT - 07/18/2016  
NAHB roughly in line

Livingston nh  14:13:04 GMT - 07/18/2016  
It seems to me that the news of the day is that Turkey's weekend experience has been ignored - no discounting of secondary effects by market, especially in the EUR -- sweeping under the rug works until the rug gets lifted - Erdogan is a PROBLEM

How's that Turkish/EU visa Request/Demand by Erdogan doing? Will Turkish refugees join Syrian counterparts?

dc CB  14:26:41 GMT - 07/18/2016  
Cameron wanted to fast track Turkey's entry into the EU. The Brexit NO vote was decried by the young, the educated, a progressives and was characterized as a generational Divide ...them v the Old, ignorant, racist xenophobes.

Wonder if Erdogan's purging thousands this weekend, gives these Lib/Progressives pause. Prob not.

dc CB  14:46:29 GMT - 07/18/2016  
20K Detained or Suspended After Failed Turkey Coup Attempt

hk ab  15:03:57 GMT - 07/18/2016  
20K Detained or Suspended After Failed Turkey Coup Attempt

What if they escape? how many officers do they need to keep up with this number? 2k? 1k?

dc CB  15:16:37 GMT - 07/18/2016  
Turkish Incirlik air base, which is not only the headquarters to the US 39th Air Base Wing but also vaults over 50 B1 nuclear bombs.

but I guess we're good with whatever Erdogan is up to?
Right? Obama, Kerry, we're good right? ?/


GVI Trading Room john  20:42:56 GMT - 07/18/2016  
Report possible shooting incident in Germany on Twitter
-- TTN

GVI Trading Room john  08:33:18 GMT - 07/19/2016  
U.K. CPI June 2016
U.K. Charts


CPI m/m:+0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
CPI y/y: +0.50% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  09:00:16 GMT - 07/19/2016  
German ZEW Survey July 2016


Current Situation: +49.8 vs. +51.8 exp. vs. +54.5 prev.

Economic Expectations: -6.8 vs. +9.2 exp. vs. +19.2 prev.

RELEASE: German ZEW Survey

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GVI Trading Room john  09:00:46 GMT - 07/19/2016  
Big Miss in ZEW

GVI Trading Room john  12:31:13 GMT - 07/19/2016  
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Starts: 1.190 vs. 1.170 exp. vs. 1.164 (r 1.135) prev.
Permits: 1.150 vs. 1.150 exp. vs. 1.138 prev.

New Residential Construction

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GVI Trading Room john  12:32:06 GMT - 07/19/2016  
Housing Starts beat while permits up as forecasted.

GVI Trading Room john  14:13:12 GMT - 07/19/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking forecast for 2Q16 at 2.40% vs 2.40% on July 15.

GVI Trading Room john  16:52:41 GMT - 07/19/2016  
Report of shots fired at police vehicle in Cleveland. No injuries
Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john  17:04:49 GMT - 07/19/2016  
Report since denied by Cleveland police.

GVI Trading Room john  20:48:24 GMT - 07/19/2016  


Reportedly -2.28 mn vs. -2.20 mn exp

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GVI Trading Room john  08:33:35 GMT - 07/20/2016  
U.K. Employment May/June 2016


Claimant Count (000): +4.0 vs. +3.0 exp. vs. -0.4 (r +12.0)prev.
ILO Rate: 4.90% vs. 5.00% exp. vs. 5.00% prev.
earnings: 2.30% vs. 2.30% exp. vs. 2.00% prev.
earnings x-bonus: 2.20% vs. 2.30% exp. vs. 2.30% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  08:36:02 GMT - 07/20/2016  
Mixed pre-Brexit data , but GBP initially higher.

london red  08:45:42 GMT - 07/20/2016  
cable res at 65/70. if fails to cap may squeeze to 13210/30. continue to fade rallies.

dc CB  13:46:26 GMT - 07/20/2016  
Mark Johnson, HSBC’s global head of foreign exchange cash trading in London, was taken into custody at John F. Kennedy International Airport Tuesday and is scheduled to appear before a judge in federal court in Brooklyn Wednesday morning, said the people, who asked not to be named because the case hasn’t been made public. He’s charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud

U.S. Charges HSBC Official in FX Rigging Probe

GVI Trading Room john  14:30:36 GMT - 07/20/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -2.300 vs. -2.200 exp vs. 2.348 prev.
Gasoline: +0.900 vs. -0.830 exp vs. 1.213 prev.
Distillates: -0.200 vs. +0.030 exp vs. -4.058 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI Trading Room john  14:35:51 GMT - 07/20/2016  
Energy markets reacting to build in gasoline.

london red  14:43:16 GMT - 07/20/2016  
yen. if they manage to pop 70 and then 84/87, there are lt channel lines on daily/wkly charts, lvls to watch are 10702/09 and 33.

GVI Trading Room 15:35:55 GMT - 07/20/2016  
S&P cuts Turkey sovereign debt rating to BB- fromBB+
Source: TTN

Livingston nh  16:27:08 GMT - 07/20/2016  
Turkey cb cut 1/4 point in response to coup turmoil and Moody's warned - S&P jumped ahead w/ ratings cut but it was already JUNK rated - a Moody's cut now investment grade gone - a fast sell-off in TRY today - $3.2 bio dump in bond holdings( Barc est.) on downgrade

The CB has been criticized by Erdogan in the past so you can be sure there is no more "independence" in policy decisions

dc CB  16:28:10 GMT - 07/20/2016  
Turkish Humor

Erdogan spokesman responds to claim coup was staged: “It’s comparable to the claim that 9/11 was orchestrated by the US."

dc CB  17:51:16 GMT - 07/20/2016  
US ANAList humor: Papa John's Pizza Inc

"After speaking with several large operators and industry contacts, we believe the recent decline in casual dining restaurant segment fundamentals—traffic down 3% to 5% the past several weeks—may be the result of consumers eating more at home amid the current political/social backdrop, which we believe could last through the November election,” KeyBanc analysts wrote in a note published Tuesday, cited by MarketWatch. Diners’ shift to a preference for convenience will benefit pizza delivery businesses like Papa John’s, according to KeyBanc.

“We believe investors’ near-term neutral sentiment towards Papa John’s reflects a ‘missed it’ mentality following a meaningful recovery in its share price since reporting first-quarter results on May 3,” the note said.

GVI Trading Room 18:17:57 GMT - 07/20/2016  
Japanese gov't eyes over 20 tril. yen stimulus to support economy- Kyodo News

GVI Trading Room john  08:31:21 GMT - 07/21/2016  
U.K. Retail Sales June 2016
U.K. Charts


mm: -0.90% vs. -0.50% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.
mm: -0.90% vs. -0.60% exp. vs. +1.00% (r +0.90% ) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales

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GVI Trading Room john  08:32:13 GMT - 07/21/2016  
U.K. Retail sales data misses. GBP lower.

LONDON SFH  08:35:23 GMT - 07/21/2016  

GVI Trading Room john  08:41:17 GMT - 07/21/2016  
Strong JPY reaction to BOJ Kuroda comments about no need for "helicopter money".

london red  08:45:13 GMT - 07/21/2016  
watch the hourly close, if finishes weak then yest low likely hit and 10520 in view, otherwise will squeeze higher to 10670.

dc CB  08:50:03 GMT - 07/21/2016  
Kuroda Chokes II, the sequel.

LONDON SFH  08:51:48 GMT - 07/21/2016  
He can only strengthn the yen..He is like draghi

nw kw  09:11:22 GMT - 07/21/2016  
HELICOPTER updated to hide from radar

nw kw  09:15:38 GMT - 07/21/2016  
HELICOPTER gbp and xaujpy on thread

london red  09:37:35 GMT - 07/21/2016  
syen. sup 10520/30. stops like under 105. hourly close below 105 wud suggest lower but i dont think we see it.

LONDON SFH  11:02:20 GMT - 07/21/2016  

GVI Trading Room john  11:02:21 GMT - 07/21/2016  
The BBC said Thursday that the interview with Kuroda was conducted in mid-June.

london red  11:02:30 GMT - 07/21/2016  
yen. clearing 10643/50 brings 70/84 into focus again.

GVI Trading Room john  11:45:09 GMT - 07/21/2016  
European Central Bank (ECB) July 2016


Refi Rate Steady at 0.05%
Marginal Lending Rate steady at 0.30%
Deposit Rate steady At -0.40%

Asset Purchases (QE) per mo unchanged at 60bn

Press Release: ECB Decision

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PAR 11:52:18 GMT - 07/21/2016  
ECB madness of negative interest rates to continue in the foreseeable future . European banks getting crushed and at a serious disadvantage vs US banks .

GVI Trading Room john  12:31:00 GMT - 07/21/2016  
U.S. Philly Fed Index July 2016
U.S. Data Charts


-2.9 vs. +5.0 exp. vs. +4.7 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  12:32:52 GMT - 07/21/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)

253K vs. 265K exp. vs. 254K (r K ) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  14:00:33 GMT - 07/21/2016  
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

5.57 vs. vs 5.470 exp. vs 5.53 (r 5.51) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  14:00:54 GMT - 07/21/2016  
U.S. Leading Indicators June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.30% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  14:30:16 GMT - 07/21/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

+34 vs. +39 exp vs. +64 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  08:00:46 GMT - 07/22/2016  
EZ Flash PMIs July 2016

mfg: 51.9 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.8 prev.
svc: 52.7 vs. 52.3 exp. vs. 52.8 prev.

mfg: 53.7 vs. 53.6 exp. vs. 54.5
svc: 54.6 vs. 53.3 exp. vs. 53.2

mfg: 48.5 vs. 48.0 exp vs. 52.1
svc: 50.3 vs. 49.5 exp. vs. 49.9

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Trading Room john  08:01:31 GMT - 07/22/2016  
EZ PMIs mixed vs. expectations and previous month.

london red  08:20:26 GMT - 07/22/2016  
cable. some pretty big downside baked into pmi f/c. anything close to consensus likely to see cable bought and a test of 13305 then 13318/23. sup at 13220/25 and 13194 fib. daily straddle around 80 pips.

GVI Trading Room john  08:22:23 GMT - 07/22/2016  
UK consensus is for big drops. See top of page.

london red  08:24:25 GMT - 07/22/2016  
i think manu around 50 and servs around 47 baked into price. its going to take more to take cable lower and keep it lower. mkt is a bit short and that needs to be worked out before can drive below 128 again.

perth wtr  08:29:56 GMT - 07/22/2016  
red, you buying cable today? whats the target?

LONDON SFH  08:30:36 GMT - 07/22/2016  

GVI Trading Room john  08:30:46 GMT - 07/22/2016  
flash Service & Manufacturing PMI July 2016
U.K. Charts


MFG: 49.1 vs. 48.0 exp. vs. 52.1 (r ) prev.

SVC: 47.4 vs. 48.9 exp. vs. 52.3 (r.) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  08:31:31 GMT - 07/22/2016  
typo SVC 47.4

GVI Trading Room john  08:33:08 GMT - 07/22/2016  
flash PMI mixed vs. estimates but both sharply lower mo/mo.

perth wtr  08:34:11 GMT - 07/22/2016  
john, i bought cable heavily because of that SVC typo, now you have to be responsible ;)

london red  08:34:43 GMT - 07/22/2016  
perth watch the hourly close. lot of folk short and likely to buy dip. data isnt great but wasnt expected to be great. anything below 13160/65 likely to see further weakness but think they will save it by top of hour to close abv 132.

london red  08:45:27 GMT - 07/22/2016  
mkt seems to think brexit can pass over quickly just because it wants to. it will takes months to work itself into hard data. but for now there is a nasty overhang of short positions that is stopping the pound moving lower and staying lower. once it is worked out and the data starts coming through cable will move lower.

GVI Trading Room john  08:48:30 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Red. well stated...

london red  08:52:54 GMT - 07/22/2016  
pmis are just surveys but do suggest a contraction of about 0.4% gdp. cable shud be down a few figs on that normally, but the mkt is short and limits downside even on a stunning downside number like today.

manila tom  08:54:48 GMT - 07/22/2016  
red, i dont see much upside either even if market is short

london red  09:01:34 GMT - 07/22/2016  
hampers dwnside tom, you get them closing out on the dips. you want folk selling breaks lower not buying. see we moved under 50% fib of 130/133 at 13177 but no follow thru-they prefer to pick top-no inclination to sell. if goes under 13160/65 can chance a run at yest low in low 50's and cover if break under 50 doesnt hold. cos thats been the play of late, downside breaks getting covered/bought.

GVI Trading Room john  12:31:40 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Canada: CPI (June) Retail Sales (May) 2016

Canada Charts

Bank of Canada Core
yy: +2.10% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.
mm: 0.00% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
yy: +1.50% vs. +1.40% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.

Retail Sales
Headline: +0.20% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. +0.90% (r +0.80%) prev.
X-Autos: +0.90% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +1.30% (r) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john  13:45:19 GMT - 07/22/2016  
U.S. flash Markit Mfg PMI July 2016

52.9 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 51.3 prev.

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Markit PMI Press Release

GVI Trading Room john  16:31:42 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Reports of shots fired at a shopping center in Munich... awaiting details


Haifa ac  16:40:28 GMT - 07/22/2016  
a euro long terrorist?!

GVI Trading Room john  16:51:17 GMT - 07/22/2016  
CNBC confirming there was a shooting in Munich. They report DJ says there were "multiple injuries". I believe they said the event is over.

GVI Trading Room john  16:52:39 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Trigger for EURUSD sell-off at the European close?

GVI Trading Room john  17:07:48 GMT - 07/22/2016  
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 462 vs 447 (+15) prev
US (oil): 371 vs. 357 (+14) prev

Canada 102 vs. 95 (+7) prev

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GVI Trading Room john  17:08:57 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Crude falls following another rise in the rig count.

london red  17:17:10 GMT - 07/22/2016  
theres a channel at 10959 on the wkly euro. if taken in anger its a breakout for a couple figs lower eventually. bit late in the day for it tho. if they do run stops then could get close to that brexit low.

Haifa ac  17:34:29 GMT - 07/22/2016  
15 dead?!

Livingston nh  17:36:06 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Won't be long now -- "In another sign of Venezuela’s worsening economic crisis, fast food giant McDonald’s announced Thursday it will have to stop selling Big Macs because of an ongoing food shortage in the country and has found the classic burger missing a key ingredient: bread." First, no beer and NOW no Big Macs for lack of bread -- "Venezuela’s economy is expected to contract by 10 percent this year according to an estimate by the International Monetary Fund. Inflation could rise as high as 700 percent in 2016. The country’s foreign reserves have fallen to less than $12 billion as it tries to pay down debts."

dc CB  17:40:44 GMT - 07/22/2016  
4 more years, 4 more years, 4 more years

art of WmBanzai7

DNC Players

NY JM  17:41:23 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Now you see why the EURUSD fell out of bed all of a sudden.

Livingston nh  17:42:40 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Haifa - the perpetrator better be a Kurd and not a Turkish Muslim just back from the ISIS party in Syria -- Germany, like France, not so far removed from its Dark Side history

Speaking of France -- Hollande gave May a reminder of reasons for historical enmity - it never changes

Haifa ac  17:50:46 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Europe is blind as a bat. THey refuse to understand what is going on.
Only Trump can save the world now.

GVI Trading Room john  18:21:40 GMT - 07/22/2016  
Munich terrorist event apparently ongoing according to press reports.

KL KL  23:46:45 GMT - 07/24/2016  
Terrorist Explosion in Germany Again??

Is this the Rise of President Erdogan Terrorist Brother of Islam Army...all across europe to cause Massive disruption in Euro Zone...while Consolidating his position?..... turkey is no more Secular...its ISLAMIST IS Islam in disguise!!..The greatest SHAM Coup for the world to see and justify the Crackdown ..murder and torture!! No islam nation is any good.....Rant for the day!! Be not Romantics to Evil..>Fight back like Isreal...the only way EVIL understand lesson of life!!

Sell EURUSD... start small here 1.0967.... above 1.1 relentless

Sydney ACC  02:14:14 GMT - 07/25/2016  
Nobel Prizes have been awarded to over 850 individuals,[2] of whom at least 20% were Jewish or people of Jewish descent, although Jews comprise less than 0.2% of the world's population[3] (or 1 in every 500 people). Overall, Jews or people of Jewish descent have won a total of 41% of all the Nobel Prizes in economics, 28% of medicine, 26% of physics, 19% of chemistry, 13% of literature and 9% of all peace awards.

On the other hand there have been 12 Muslim recipients of Nobel Prizes. Seven individuals were awarded for peace, two for literature, one for physics and two for chemistry. There are 1.6 billion Muslims in the world roughly 23% of the world's population.

Brisbane Flip  03:21:15 GMT - 07/25/2016  
The Nobel prize doesn't carry the same level of gravitas it did a generation ago. Some pretty dubious winners and notable omissions have made it more pop cultural trivia.
I'd say its up there battling subjectivity wise with the yearly "Sexiest Man(or Woman) Alive"

london red  15:07:18 GMT - 08/02/2016  
yen. 10075 may provide a bounce. cable. pmis likely to beat while hard data likely to miss going forward. s&p. 2135-38 shud see buyers. if not then expect sharper falls but always remember that as soon as it stops falling it will go all the way back up so bftd. euro. stops over 30 may squeeze cloud top but fading 57-65 stop over 11308 shud work into nfp. yes they will as usual go in long. take profit ahead of event.

GVI Trading Room john  08:01:09 GMT - 08/03/2016  


EZ- Final Service PMI
52.9 vs. 52.7 exp. vs. 52.7 (flash)
50.5 vs. 50.3 exp. vs. 50.3 (flash)
54.4 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.6 (flash)

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Trading Room john  08:30:13 GMT - 08/03/2016  
GB Services PMI July 2016
U.K. Charts


47.4 vs. 47.4 exp. vs. 47.4 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Trading Room john  08:30:56 GMT - 08/03/2016  
final UK Services PMI unrevised.

london red  08:45:54 GMT - 08/03/2016  
some expectation of no cut tomorrow from boe. mkt f/c a 25bp cut. if no cut youd expect to see 13480/13508 tested and broken intraday but no close abv there on a daily basis. a lot of folk are looking for 135/138 zone to fade for 120.

perth wtr  08:51:17 GMT - 08/03/2016  
red, so it is all free to buy today and tomorrow?
think low has been seen today?

london red  08:56:19 GMT - 08/03/2016  
mkt on the whole forecasting cut so you may see some selling later. if breaks 13360/65 fib then can move higher but i would be surprised if not sold tomorrow early london am as mkt expecting a cut.
i think they want to see first batch of hard data from july, we will get that in coming days/weeks. but mines a minority view, ask most and they are looking for 25-40bp and additional qe.

perth wtr  08:58:28 GMT - 08/03/2016  
thanks red, i prefer your 'minority view'
most means wrong

GVI Trading Room john  09:00:49 GMT - 08/03/2016  
Eurozone Retail Sales June 2016

mm: 0.00% vs 0.00% exp. vs. +0.40% (r ) prev.
yy: +1.60% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. +1.60% (r ) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

london red  09:10:23 GMT - 08/03/2016  
looser policy will certainly be called for in the monthing months are it will be needed, but think mpc will be looking at markets, seeing relative calm and assuming they can afford to sit tight and hope maybe data catches up to the markets optimist views. thats probably why they may wait. but data is certain to get worse over the coming months. current projects are being rushed through to completion but other than that everything is at a standstill waiting for some indication on how the government is to proceed. so we will go lower over time. id fancy a long ft100/short ft250 even here and short cable 135-138 stop a little abv that range for 120 and poss towards parity.

perth wtr  09:14:16 GMT - 08/03/2016  
what's the timeframe?
would you be chasing it down if your 'ideal' range not seen?

london red  09:20:11 GMT - 08/03/2016  
pull backs are always seen. mkt is well short gbp in any case. once they clear the specs and hard data comes thru it will go on its famed run. may take 6 months to crack 125 but shud see at least 120 but we turn up. brexit will take years. certainly longer than the 2 year timeframe after article 50. thats why they are censored themselves and dont want to trigger early.

perth wtr  09:25:30 GMT - 08/03/2016  
red, will you be selling eurgbp to hedge?

london red  09:30:48 GMT - 08/03/2016  
there is no hedge in spot fx. you are adding exposure by introducing another element. sup for cable c 13318. you would want to see a strong close to current hour or at v latest next hour to crack 60-65 following hour. otherwise nearterm top in place. euro sup at 11170

tokyo joyya  11:49:17 GMT - 08/03/2016  
london red 09:20 GMT 08/03/2016

scenario no1

i agree in 6 months possible 1.2/1.25 short and mid term buy buy....

scenario 2

but do not think 1.28 long term double bottom possible?1985 low 1.2999

what do you think all?

london red  11:54:35 GMT - 08/03/2016  
adp tends to be quite stable, doesnt have the swings shown in nfp, so would expect number to be as f/c or slightly firmer. might give a boost for usd to test res vs gbp and euro. but as long as 11318 and 11170 hold then expect status quo range trading.

db would be possible if we dont go up to 135/138. all db will serve is to squeeze specs and allow rm to sell at better levels. so if those better levels already seen, i doubt it will happen, as in, a fully played out db. youd expect some natural sup at those lows so you wouldnt rule out a bounce of some kind. but highs should get lower and lower.

Belgrade Knez  12:01:13 GMT - 08/03/2016  

london red

please, are these both levels referred to EU?

"11318 and 11170"

thank you.

london red  12:09:24 GMT - 08/03/2016  
sorry no 13318 cable

london red  12:12:10 GMT - 08/03/2016  
nh, interesting article in ft re cb failure

GVI Trading Room john  12:16:34 GMT - 08/03/2016  
U.S. ADP Private Employment July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+179K vs. +170K exp. vs. +172K (r 176K) prev.

RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®

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Belgrade Knez  12:21:09 GMT - 08/03/2016  


I have from another source Actual as +179k .... not +172k as you stated.

which one is correct one please?

GVI Trading Room john  12:30:01 GMT - 08/03/2016  
179 I had corrected it immediately.

Livingston nh  12:31:04 GMT - 08/03/2016  
Thanx RED - could be quite a scramble if the markets have to change focus

GVI Trading Room john  13:45:29 GMT - 08/03/2016  
U.S. Markit final Services PMI July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

51.4 vs. 51.0 exp. vs. 50.9 (flash)

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Trading Room john  14:00:37 GMT - 08/03/2016  
U.S. ISM Services PMI July 2016
MORE: U.S. Data Charts

55.5 vs. 56.0 exp. vs. 56.5 prev.
Employment sub-component
51.4 vs. 52.7 prev.


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GVI Trading Room john  14:36:17 GMT - 08/03/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: +1.400 vs. -1.800 exp vs. -2.200 prev.
Gasoline: -3.300 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -0.100 prev.
Distillates: +1.200 vs. -0.800 exp vs. -1.600 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI Trading Room john  14:37:01 GMT - 08/03/2016  
Larger than expected crude build.

Paris ib  15:58:48 GMT - 08/03/2016  
And the price of OIL jumps 2 percent. And the people in hedge fund land? Making sad faces I suppose.

Doubling UP

london red  18:00:36 GMT - 08/03/2016  
euro. run stops under cloud base at 70. dwn on back of strong eurpln selling (swiss frank directive yest).
euro sup at 26 then lrg 11090-95. for those interested eurpln 425-427 sup for 430-432.

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  18:08:50 GMT - 08/03/2016  
This appeared to be the catalyst for the last EUR smackdown

13:46 (EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany): there are possibilities for adjusting QE - German press - too early to tell what Brexit impact will be on price development
- Source

london red  18:16:39 GMT - 08/03/2016  
jay those comments are nothing new and euro was going earlier. big moves in pln cross frm yesterdays swiss loan ruling. usdpln also well dwn, should be opposite if euro weak. poland is quite unloved, as many short as gbp. so some scrambling last day or two.

dc CB  19:39:34 GMT - 08/03/2016  

then again he couldn't

Unbiased private-sector efforts to calculate the real rate of inflation have yielded a rate of around 7% to 13% per year, depending on the locale--many multiples of the official rate of around 1% per year.

The Social Security system would be revealed as unsustainable if real inflation (7+% annually) were made public.

Global investors might start demanding yields on Treasury bonds that are above the real rate of inflation. If inflation is running at 7%, then bond buyers would need to earn 8% per year just to earn a real return of 1%.

Revealing The Real Rate Of Inflation Would Crash The System

GVI Trading Room 08:03:53 GMT - 08/04/2016  
ECB Bulletin.
-- Will use all tools available
-- Risks remain tilted to the downside.


GVI Trading Room john  08:11:35 GMT - 08/04/2016  

Retail PMI July 2016


48.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. 48.5

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john  08:15:33 GMT - 08/04/2016  
EZ Retail PMI. Better but still below 50...

GVI Trading Room john  11:00:25 GMT - 08/04/2016  
July 2016 Bank of England Policy Decision


Policy Eased (repo rate 0.50% -25bp)
Asset Purchases higher @ GBP 435 bln v. GBP 375 bn

Bank of England

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john  11:01:58 GMT - 08/04/2016  
9-0 vote to cut
6-3 to add to QE

jkt abel  11:02:44 GMT - 08/04/2016  
who buys cable now? raise your hand!

LONDON SFH  11:03:26 GMT - 08/04/2016  
BOE over-delivered..cable lower...think cable bounces and ends higher as they realsie the BOE can do little more and the economy is still drifting down the swanee

LONDON SFH  11:05:53 GMT - 08/04/2016  
but...brexit is CLEARLY great fro everyone eh!?

jkt abel  11:08:53 GMT - 08/04/2016  
so JPM actually got it right!!! talking about inside info!!!
everyone else fced 0.25 cut, JPM said 0.50

london red  11:16:51 GMT - 08/04/2016  
we are about at straddle breakeven territory, so if goes below flash lod will move further to 13060, otherwise may see some covering after carney. further action not ruled out, that plus the extra qe keep cable lower.

Mtl JP  11:23:58 GMT - 08/04/2016  
has Carney's BoE entered into ccy war ?

london red  11:28:24 GMT - 08/04/2016  
ahead of carney strddle here still around 80 pips. nxt sup/res

london red  11:35:41 GMT - 08/04/2016  
now tgt 13078-55 (60) while under 13127/35

GVI Trading Room john  12:31:30 GMT - 08/04/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts

Initial Claims (000)
269K vs. 265K exp. vs. 266K (r ) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john  14:01:08 GMT - 08/04/2016  
Factory Orders June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-1.50% vs. -1.90% exp. vs. -1.00% (r -1.20%) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john  14:30:18 GMT - 08/04/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

-6 vs. +2 exp vs. +17 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john  15:12:01 GMT - 08/04/2016  
BOE's Carney
-- Growth will be considerably lower than BOE had previously expected
-- Very confident stimulus will get to households and businesses
-- BOE targets inflation, but not indifferent to output and inflation.


GVI Trading Room john  16:54:24 GMT - 08/04/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDPnow 3Q16 forecast 3.70% from 3.60% on Aug 4.

GVI Trading Room john  12:31:33 GMT - 08/05/2016  
U.S. Employment July 2016

NFP Jobs: +255 vs. +180K exp. vs. +287K(r +292K) prev.
Rate: 4.90% vs. 4.80% exp. vs. 4.90% prev.

Avg earnings: +0.30% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% (r ) prev.
BLS: Employment Situation Summary

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john  12:34:03 GMT - 08/05/2016  
Canada EMPLOYMENT July 2016


Jobs: -31.2K vs. +10.0K exp. vs. -7K prev.
Rate: 6.90% vs. 6.90% exp. vs. 6.80% prev.

RELEASE: StatCan Monthy Employment Report

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john  12:35:40 GMT - 08/05/2016  
U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-44.5 vs. -42.1K exp. vs. -41.1K (r) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-3.6 vs. -2.82 exp. vs. -3.30 (r )prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance

TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB  12:38:25 GMT - 08/05/2016  
U.S. Employment July 2016

and you were expecting a bad number???

Hillary Hillary Hillary Hillary Hillary Hillary Hillary Hillary Hillary
4 More Years 4 More Years

poll out monday will show Hillary leads by 15 pts

london red  12:41:28 GMT - 08/05/2016  
euro 80>60 better to sell blips for a test of big sup. lot in this 80-95 area. cable 13060 if bust they run it to 130.

london red  12:43:50 GMT - 08/05/2016  
euro res 14 26 shudnt pass that low otherwise have to assume rally if evens taken out.

dc CB  12:55:25 GMT - 08/05/2016  
From the Press Conference on Sept 21:

"though the committee sees signs of solid growth no showing up in the economy, the committee feels that it is too soon to raise the rate and will wait for more evidence that the slowdown is behind us"

tokyo joyya  13:01:36 GMT - 08/05/2016  
keep bying cable avg 1.3065

LONDON SFH  13:02:30 GMT - 08/05/2016  
Joyva-I bought too at 1.3050 gl/gt

GVI Trading Room john  14:48:08 GMT - 08/05/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q16 GDP forecast 3.80% from 3.70% on August 4.

-- Source TTN

GVI Trading Room john  17:33:04 GMT - 08/05/2016  
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 464 vs 463 (+1) prev
US (oil): 381 vs. 374 (+7 ) prev

Canada 122 vs. 119 (+3 ) prev

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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