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GVI Trading Room john  17:06:24 GMT - 07/26/2016  
5-yr Auction 1.180%
bid-to-cover 2.27 vs. 2.44 prior

soft


GVI Trading Room john  13:27:29 GMT - 07/26/2016  
DAX +38
DJ -14
SP -1

10-yr 1.553% -0.8bp


Mtl JP  11:21:34 GMT - 07/26/2016  
usdcad / keeping a BoD bias
1.33/35 trtg


GVI Trading Room john  10:53:46 GMT - 07/26/2016  
JP you are right there is no press conference tomorrow!


Mtl JP  10:33:46 GMT - 07/26/2016  
I thought the FED gang would release only a statement this next time around


GVI Trading Room john  10:22:37 GMT - 07/26/2016  
press conference


Mtl JP  10:18:56 GMT - 07/26/2016  
27-Jul WED
18:00 US- Fed Decision & Presser

-
Is Presser a press conference or just press release ?


GVI Trading Room john  08:42:28 GMT - 07/26/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

26-Jul TUE
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI
14:00 US- CB Confidence
14:00 US- New Homes Sales
27-Jul WED
00:30 AU- CPI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US= Durable Goods
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
28-Jul THU
07:55 DE- Employment
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
23:30 JP- CPI
29-Jul FRI
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
09:00 EZ- GDP, flash HICP
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of Mich



Trading Themes --
  • The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday. No rate changes are seen as likely, although a slightly less dovish tone is seen as probable following the rebound in the June Jobs data. The Fed is likely now to try focus a longer term view policy after a couple of embarrassing flip-flops.

  • Fed Funds futures are lousy forecasts of future Fed policy but are an accurate barometer of current market sentiment. Current market odds on one Fed rate hike by year end are running a little above 50-50.

  • The Democratic Party Convention runs through Thursday this week with Hillary Clinton set to be proclaimed the party candidate for President in the fall. This has become yet another rancorous convention rather than the planned "coronation", after it was revealed that the Party had favored Clinton over Sanders in the primaries.

  • On Friday, the Bank of Japan meets. Over the weekend, Kuroda partially walked back hawkish comments made last week. He indicated the central bank would be supportive of a fiscal stimulus program. We should get some sort of BOJ commitment for additional monetary stimulus by week's end.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com




Mtl JP  00:34:56 GMT - 07/26/2016  
nh hope my usdcad suggestions r helping your balance sheet


Livingston nh  20:41:46 GMT - 07/25/2016  
The odds !!!

Yellen is a 3 legged horse - just because the odds change doesn't mean a 3 legged horse just grew a 4th leg and nobody but the mopes who put money in to change the odds happened to NOTICE

ALL of these algo influenced mopes who don't understand that the Morning LINE is the bet to beat not the Tourist odds based on jockey silks or horse names

BREXIT was the PERFECT example -- the mopes bet the amount of the money when the Game was the number of votes -- the mopes didn't understand that a bookie is a perfect hedge fund manager

KNOW the Game - KNOW the Players - and KNOW the RUBE (otherwise it might be you)


GVI Trading Room john  20:27:54 GMT - 07/25/2016  
Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.

Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+56% from +56% late Friday.

Spot EURUSD: 1.0980
20-day avg: 1.1065
Pivot Point: 1.0990

Markets are wanting to close the gap.


GVI Trading Room john  20:08:35 GMT - 07/25/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

26-Jul TUE
00:30 AU- CPI
13:45 US- flash SVC PMI
14:00 US- CB Confidence
14:00 US- New Homes Sales
27-Jul WED
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US= Durable Goods
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision & Presser
28-Jul THU
07:55 DE- Employment
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
23:30 JP- CPI
29-Jul FRI
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
09:00 EZ- GDP, flash HICP
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of Mich



Trading Themes --
  • The new week opened with the closely watched German IFO Survey for July the latest data were mixed. More broadly, the IFO is down from early 2014 and recently about dead flat. No impact on EURUSD

  • The Democratic Party Convention runs from Monday through Friday this week with Hillary Clinton set to be proclaimed the party candidate for President in the fall. This is shaping up to be another rancorous convention.

  • The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday. No rate changes are seen as likely, although a slightly less dovish tone is seen as probible following the rebound in the June Jobs data.

  • On Friday, the Bank of Japan meets. Over the weekend, Kuroda partially walked back hawkish comments made last week. He indicated the central bank would be supportive of a fiscal stimulus program. We should get some sort of BOJ commitment for additional monetary stimulus by week's end.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com







Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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