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Paris ib  16:37:53 GMT - 09/13/2016  
hahahahahahahahahhaha

made me laugh anyway

put me in a good mood



Bali Sja  16:36:20 GMT - 09/13/2016  
Relax, usd will be ok it is still world's reserve currency. The best among the worst :)


nw kw  16:21:06 GMT - 09/13/2016  
invisible hand in jpy?


nw kw  16:19:57 GMT - 09/13/2016  
out for the stop hunt gbpaud


nw kw  16:16:40 GMT - 09/13/2016  
poss time china cut for x charts separating so g dumdums 20, for chong in red?


Paris ib  16:13:21 GMT - 09/13/2016  
No I don't think so. Current account surplus. External funding is not an issue. I was thinking the United States actually. Major vulnerability and with the political circus they have going on now, not to mention the geopolitical joke arena, the vulnerability just got worse.

Australia also looks vulnerable. Britain less so because government debt has such a long maturity. Striking how long the maturity is actually. As if they were planning for this.


Bali Sja  16:10:29 GMT - 09/13/2016  
Ib, in such event, euro is the one to suffer more IMO.


nw kw  16:09:28 GMT - 09/13/2016  
audjpy last support//xaud room top side under dog long gbpaud


Paris ib  16:05:44 GMT - 09/13/2016  
If we have another financial market 'event' remember this: in times of danger money goes home. What does that mean? Countries reliant on external funding (ie. with current account deficits and large accumulated levels of foreign debt - and don't look at net debt - look at gross debt -and look very closely at whether it is short term or long term debt) are vulnerable to currency depreciation and bond market sell offs.

Think Greece. Only much, much bigger.

Take a look at the data and draw your own conclusions.


Paris ib  15:44:46 GMT - 09/13/2016  
From the wonderful world of Australian parliament.

Everything is under control



Paris ib  15:43:16 GMT - 09/13/2016  
SFH it's like watching a surreal comedy reality show. You gotta laugh.


LONDON SFH  15:36:49 GMT - 09/13/2016  
Yeah... The numb nuts have put Donald Trump up for President so they're capable of an awful lot more stupidity


Paris ib  15:33:44 GMT - 09/13/2016  
SFH agreed. All I am saying is keep an eye. If that market starts to really go under then that's it. It's over. But that's what we need to watch right now.

I can't believe that the numb nuts actually voted to prosecute Saudi Arabia at this juncture.


LONDON SFH  15:31:17 GMT - 09/13/2016  
ib
US Bonds trading lower into supply...not always a bad sign but indeed a weak link...


Paris ib  15:25:48 GMT - 09/13/2016  
Fasten seat belts. The weakest link is the U.S. bond market. Watch that. That unravels all else follows. Remember: safety first.


Paris ib  16:40:48 GMT - 08/18/2016  
That really crowded short OIL trade just looks worse and worse each day and all 'the data' and all the 'experts' can't do a darn thing about it.

Fun in hedge fund land? Probably not.

Money managers have never been more certain



Paris ib  17:06:31 GMT - 08/02/2016  
Stocks.... over that cliff.

Nikkei tomorrow? Vomit.

Bonds - all things considered - aren't doing as badly. But don't go rushing into bonds because the downside (in price not yield) is absolutely stunning.


Paris ib  09:43:27 GMT - 08/02/2016  
Oops wrong link.

Money managers have never been more certain that oil prices will drop.



Paris ib  09:39:32 GMT - 08/02/2016  
manila tom FWIW I think we also have someone all in long at 116.83 :-)

Right now the big bet out there apparently is that crude will go to zero. Don't know how that will play out but when there is that much certainty around it usually doesn't work out all that well.

OIL.... the crowded trade



manila tom  09:32:07 GMT - 08/02/2016  
Paris ib, dont destroy 104.60 and 113 dreams please...


Paris ib  09:21:24 GMT - 08/02/2016  
Moving right along here, it sure is going to be an interesting Summer and an even more interesting election in the U.S., the economic environment might be such that American voters become convinced that it is better to have a reality-TV business man in charge.

Meanwhile back at the farm.... another test of 100 on the USD/JPY is coming up. They will be doing well if they manage to hold it above 100.

End of the carry trade and a new wave of speculative unwinding straight ahead. So ask yourself: what have been the trends of 2016 which need to be unwound? gl gt



dc CB  17:52:22 GMT - 07/28/2016  
It's all on Kurossive.

will he Choke or come thru on the last day of the Month

Bonuses are at Stake...


dc CB  17:51:15 GMT - 07/28/2016  
Cut your loses! LOL

WHITE HOUSE SAYS FBI HAS NOT REVEALED ANY INFORMATION ABOUT WHO HAS PERPETRATED THE HACK OF DNC EMAILS


dc CB  17:30:47 GMT - 07/28/2016  
maybe this is why my prediction script for the New Highs to compliment the DNC - Obama and tonite HRC acceptance speech may turn out to be the FADE of the Summer.

Stop and Reverse on the Script that didn't pan out????

Did The DNC Hire Actors (At Below Minimum Wage) To Work At The Convention?



Livingston nh  16:53:10 GMT - 07/28/2016  
Last I Looked the rate on the Sovereign debt level is as low as it has been since man has walked upright

But notwithstanding that detail government debt is merely currency w/ a coupon -- the Fed has proven that over the past 8 years -- Japan is finding its way to that little detail with Ben's Perpetual Bond // there are no widget based currencies anymore


Paris ib  16:49:12 GMT - 07/28/2016  
nh - you heard what has happened to U.S. sovereign debt levels, right? And you understand about U.S. dependency on foreign capital inflows, right? And you understand that recent foreign policy decisions by the U.S. have not been wildly popular around the world, right? After that it's not a huge leap to understand where the problem is.

The problem has festered but it hasn't been solved.

U.S. debt to GDP



Livingston nh  16:44:12 GMT - 07/28/2016  
If not EU where might that trouble be?


Paris ib  16:43:05 GMT - 07/28/2016  
Hats off though. They pulled the USD/JPY from 80 to 125. That is a major achievement. But you can't keep doing that. Won't work. Recent little rally managed 100 to 107.50 circa before failing. I guess there will be more attempts. But the rot has set in.

I heard this statistic today: in a recent poll 80 percent of Americans said that they do not believe the official 9 11 narrative. I thought: that can't possibly be true. If it is true: big trouble ahead as the narrative collapses.


Paris ib  16:38:10 GMT - 07/28/2016  
nh - I don't buy the USD/JPY bull case. I know the budget stuff and the printing stuff and the whole ABE government would like to comply with demands for a higher USD/JPY but I don't think it can be pulled off. That's just my opinion. The real trouble is elsewhere.

And no, not Europe.


Livingston nh  16:35:16 GMT - 07/28/2016  
ib - the annual rate of domestic outflow from Japan is ~$400 bio - the currency is being supported by buyers who believe it will appreciate further // Japan is a hostage to the FOMC


Paris ib  16:29:52 GMT - 07/28/2016  
They should though.

Stocks, the USD/JPY (nice try guys with the Abe budget crap - how many times you gonna try that trick?).... timber.

:-)






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