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dc CB  16:11:47 GMT - 08/01/2016  
Oil flirting with the 39 handle


dc CB  15:05:05 GMT - 08/01/2016  
After years in the making, a post-crisis rule to prevent a run on the money-market industry will finally take effect this October. It will force funds that oversee about $600 billion to abandon a fixed $1-a-share price and float their net asset value. But because businesses and state governments treat the funds like bank accounts, the prospect of prices falling below a buck is causing a big shift into money-market funds that buy only government debt.

Estimates suggest between now and mid-October, the influx may produce an extra $400 billion or more in demand for short-term government securities and put a squeeze on a sizable chunk of the $1.51 trillion bill market.

A $400 Billion Influx Squeezes U.S. Bond Marketís Safest Asset



Livingston nh  13:15:41 GMT - 08/01/2016  
 
NY FED Dudley o/n comments talking the FOMC book - all the key points mentioned "trajectory", "headwinds", "global risk" and Friday's "Sluggish GDP" so traders push Fed moves further off the radar screen

BUT -- GDP should be good news for the FOMC - the spread between real and nominal Q2/16 GDP is 2.3% the same as in 2014 and 2015 -- so inflation (not the preferred flavor, of course) remains consistent, above 2% and rising (RED line in chart)


GVI Trading Room john  11:04:14 GMT - 08/01/2016  
Equities--cautious start
DAX -1
DJ +13
SP +1

10-yr 1.484% +1.7bp
U.S. GDP a game changer?


GVI Trading Room john  09:45:26 GMT - 08/01/2016  



Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.

Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+40% from +51% late Thursday.

Spot EURUSD: 1.1170
20-day avg: 1.1061
Pivot Point: 1.1151




GVI Trading Room john  08:53:41 GMT - 08/01/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

1-Aug MON
CA/CH Holiday
All Day Final PMIs
2-Aug TUE
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
3-Aug WED
All Day Final Service PMIs
12:15 US ADP Jobs
4-Aug THU
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
5-Aug FRI
12:30 US/CA Employment and Trade



Trading Themes --
  • Monday sees a slew of final Manufacturing PMI's. While many will just be revisions of flash data, the fresh China and U.S. ISM data will be closely watched. Chinese PMI data were mixed to better. U.K. Mfg PMI was revised down sharply.

  • PM Abe is expected to announce a fiscal stimulus of what is touted to be around JPY 28 tn on Tuesday, August 2. Analysts say the underlying stimulus is likely to be one-quarter of that amount. Following the tepid Bank of Japan easing on Friday, there is a lot of room now for more disappointment.

  • Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to reduce its Cash Rate target to 1.50% from 1.75%. Australia inflation continues to miss the central bank's targets.

  • The Bank of England meets on Thursday. The markets have already priced in a 25bp reduction in its repo rate target to 0.25% along with aditional policy ease as uncertainty about the economic impact of Brexit weighs on sentiment.

  • Analysts expect a strong rise in U.S. employment on Friday of 195K. Another strong report would call into question the weak May data, but keep in mind the Fed focus is also on inflation. A strong report will have markets looking for a September or December rate hike. After a number of missteps, expect this Fed to be very cautious. Street odds on a Fed funds rate hike by year-end a coin-toss.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com




GVI Trading Room john  11:17:56 GMT - 07/31/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

1-Aug MON
CA/CH Holiday
All Day Final PMIs
2-Aug TUE
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
3-Aug WED
All Day Final Service PMIs
12:15 US ADP Jobs
4-Aug THU
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
5-Aug FRI
12:30 US/CA Employment and Trade



Trading Themes --
  • Monday sees a slew of final Manufacturing PMI's. While many will just be revisions of flash data, the fresh China and U.S. ISM data will be closely watched.

  • PM Abe is expected to announce a fiscal stimulus of what is touted to be around JPY 28 tn on Tuesday, August 2. Analysts say the underlying stimulus is likely to be one-quarter of that amount. Following the tepid Bank of Japan easing on Friday, there is a lot of room now for more disappointment.

  • Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to reduce its Cash Rate target to 1.50% from 1.75%. Australia inflation continues to miss the central bank's targets.

  • The Bank of England meets on Thursday. The markets have already priced in a 25bp reduction in its repo rate target to 0.25% along with additional policy ease as uncertainty about the economic impact of Brexit weighs on sentiment.

  • Analysts expect a strong rise in U.S. employment on Friday of 195K. Another strong report would call into question the weak May data, but keep in mind the Fed focus is also on inflation. A strong report will have markets looking for a September or December rate hike. After a number of missteps, expect this Fed to be very cautious. Street odds on a Fed funds rate hike by year-end a coin-toss.






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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