That's right, we can blame Woody for this mess that has devalued our fine currency by 5% (so far) this year. Yesterday, we got a peek behind the curtain at the Fed through the minutes of their July meeting which, frankly, were barely distinguishable from their Jan, March, April or June Meetings and will not likely vary much in Sept, Nov or December either but that doesn't stop the Financial Media from treating these monthly meetings and the minutes of the monthly meetings (16 times a year!) like they are some kind of Earth-shaking revelations – EVERY SINGLE TIME!
Of course, the Fed would never say "we're going to raise rates 0.25% in September" even though it is August 18th and you would think they would know by now but where's the fun in telling people your plans? It's so much more fun to watch them run around in circles trying to interpret all the hints you drop along the way. That's why, in addtion to 16 meetings and minutes, we have had over 200 Fed speeches this year – AND STILL WE KNOW NOTHING!
I'm sorry to rant about these mopes - the differences between them are too small for a paper to pass thru -- 40 years ago these theorists would have been confined to the back room
Williams has been on this 19th century interest rate for two decades - every expert has a favorite tree in the forest of human endeavor - a good cross examination only requires THAT YOU BEAK A FEW BRANCHES OVER HIS HEAD SO NO NEED TO BURN DOWN THE FOREST
Livingston nh 20:21:35 GMT - 08/18/2016
Williams just went through a whole NEW NORMAL routine a few days ago about raising the inflation target - he can't vote so talks cheap - he didn't dissent once // he's as bad as Bullard
Livingston nh 20:11:05 GMT - 08/18/2016
he still is a dove
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:06:29 GMT - 08/18/2016
Williams used to be a dove...
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:05:44 GMT - 08/18/2016
SF Fed President Williams
-- pretty much at full employment
-- current labor growth unsustainable in LT
-- sees strong domestic economy
-- makes sense to get gradual rate increases sooner than later
-- earlier start to raising rates will give room to fine tune
Livingston nh 19:05:50 GMT - 08/18/2016
Dudley et al still don't understand WHY inflation hasn't picked up as the unemployment rate declines - the book says it should have happened
SO now he (FOMC?) is back on the unemployment rate BUT remember when a 6% rate was the magic number until it happened faster than the Fed expected
SO it is REALLY all about inflation (watch Williams w/ his neutral/natural rate of interest) and "full" employment is the Fed's expected Early Warning System -- this is what the Medieval debates about Angels and Pinheads must have been like
Mtl JP 17:58:04 GMT - 08/18/2016
admittedly Dudley does has a sense of humor
what remains to be seen is if he can/will continue with it and see it morph into something else
dc CB 17:51:07 GMT - 08/18/2016
DUDLEY: JOBS NUMBERS DRIVE DECISIONS ABOUT RATE-HIKE TIMING.
Dudley DoRight doing it right for Treasuries.
Mtl JP 17:20:32 GMT - 08/18/2016
nh probably good reason to stay away from cad$:
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will make an official week-long visit to China to build closer ties between the two countries, his office said on Thursday.
NY JM 16:41:09 GMT - 08/18/2016
Red, I show the 100 week mva around 1.1325
May I ask where 1.1360/65 comes from? I show the pre-Brexit high as 1.1426 as all that is left besides the HOD
london red 16:36:01 GMT - 08/18/2016
im suggesting sell 60/65 first cover 113-11315 and look to reverse there with stop below todays low.
Bali Sja 16:25:47 GMT - 08/18/2016
Red you are suggesting buy euro on dips for 1.14 tomorrow?
london red 16:22:44 GMT - 08/18/2016
euro. id be surprised to see 11360/65 taken without some kind of pullback (to maybe 113/11315). if present trend continues 114/11415 looks on the cards tomorrow if they can bust my res. there has not been a close abv the 100 wk ma since well north of 1.30, so they will "price in" the break tomorrow. hence if to close north of that at all (11307) it needs to close well north of it.
Mtl JP 16:13:37 GMT - 08/18/2016
two more "open mouth" operators on deck today:
non-voters Williams and follows Kaplan later in the eve
Shares of Caterpillar Inc. slumped 1.4% in morning trade Thursday, after the industrial machine and equipment maker reported the declines in retail sales of machines in the last month accelerated from the previous month.
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:31:30 GMT - 08/18/2016
fed minutes might be a bit more hawkish but euro and cable should see dip buying 11235-30 12958-55. eod options showing about 25 pips for a euro straddle so initial sup/res and likely to hold unless something very surprising.
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:06:56 GMT - 08/17/2016
St Louis Fed President Bullard
-- Fed rate target close to appropriate
-- U.S. economy not headed for recession
-- Sees one rate hike over next two years
dc CB 14:38:55 GMT - 08/17/2016
API, again very dif numbers.
but then Crude "wants" to be back above 50.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:34:45 GMT - 08/17/2016
Larger than expected draws in crude and gasoline. Oil futures are higher.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:33:28 GMT - 08/17/2016
Crude Oil: -2.500 vs. -0.300 exp vs. +1.100 prev.
Gasoline: -2.700 vs. -1.125 exp vs. -2.800 prev.
Distillates: +1.900 vs. +0.375 exp vs. -2.000 prev.
key to new health is Nitric Oxide, improves cells intake rate for food and O2, saved my life few years back, you don't need much so I you'd take a bit, new from few years back now common and beater than steroids, and no bad stuff for body. unreel help,
nw kw 01:39:20 GMT - 08/17/2016
c2 unstable so now I do deep breaths to adjust upper ribs,c2 moves ito place and so I get power back from nerves arnt under stress or inflamed but your right ill do more pl in time,tks, key stretch backwards for you get puled forward for short gut mussels.
dc CB 01:37:44 GMT - 08/17/2016
actually it's on that local level where it actually works, voting does have an influence on what gets done.
dc CB 01:27:25 GMT - 08/17/2016
I found a way to fix bad back
how. I fixed mine doing Pilates. 30's, 40's, 50s,...then I found it 65 and never better.
nw kw 01:19:51 GMT - 08/17/2016
us starting soft and strong yen ,gl, short uj
Sydney ACC 01:09:30 GMT - 08/17/2016
On the one hand the US takes democracy to the nth degree - electing officials such as judges and districts of attorney, whereas in countries that follow the British parliamentary system voting is restricted to parliamentary and local council representatives.
On the other gerrymandering of electoral boundaries and is a pervasive practice carried on by both parties which neutralises the impact of many voters. A practice that has continued to impact US elections since the founding of the Republic.
The United States is alone among major countries in that self-interested politicians govern the redistricting process.
nw kw 00:57:44 GMT - 08/17/2016
but i have JAY to thank for all help over the years and having the passions to help traders new and vets.TKS, KW
nw kw 00:52:38 GMT - 08/17/2016
jp- now ill gibberish you now look out man?
nw kw 00:48:10 GMT - 08/17/2016
CB- I found a way to fix bad back now I have my head back in game so lookout market I'm back after 20y struggle, no Mersey now, chart killer in game now, look out bankster,
nw kw 00:40:48 GMT - 08/17/2016
Congress and senate, looking for majority so things get approved faster no conflicts, tks, so will this change this new voting for a pres or is it a hole different proses. I believe so or not.
dc CB 00:31:04 GMT - 08/17/2016
it's not a Parlimentary System. There is no Upper/Lower House.
It is a Representative government.
The House of Represetatives has a 2 year term. Apportioned by Population of each state.
The Senate has a 6 year term. Not appportioned by population...2 from each state.
The Pres runs the Exec Branch
Getting a Majority in the Congress - There are really only 2 parties, does not guareentee cooperation between the Pres and the Congress.
The only real infuence of the Pres Election cycle is that some voters simply vote the ticket...which means they vote Repub or Democrat across those on the ballott.
You need to Google " how the US Gov Works.
nw kw 00:21:40 GMT - 08/17/2016
CB - can you comment on this for nh might be off line.
nw kw 00:04:43 GMT - 08/17/2016
nh-Congress, and or lower or upper house is it part of new presidents voting, or dues it change this elections // I'm looking for if we can get a majority in upper and lower house this pez elections, nh- forgive me for I lost track how proses is dun. TKI, kw.
dc CB 23:43:30 GMT - 08/16/2016
prob won't see too much discussion about this in the MSM
Krugman is typical of Nobel guys - one great insight that was very lonely for companionship -- he thinx raising taxes will support spending (a throwback to the balanced budget conservatives) when the reality is build the infrastructure, give the property away and use debt as money (that's how we grew)
dc CB 21:41:40 GMT - 08/16/2016
A Hillary Clinton presidency would represent a third Obama term, prominent liberal columnist and economist Paul Krugman said Monday.
"It's a continuation. It is Obama's third term," the Nobel-winning economist said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. "It's center-left governance with fairly cautious proposals."
Krugman, who has advocated for liberal economic policies and greater fiscal stimulus, has written that Clinton and her advisers have been cautious in their estimates of the economic growth her proposals would produce.
Although some of her plans are "fairly significant," he said, such as her proposed tax increases on high-income earners, overall "it's the same kind of governance we've had."
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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