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GVI Trading Room john bland  17:03:10 GMT - 08/19/2016  
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 491 vs 481 (+10) prev
US (oil): 406 vs. 396 (+10) prev

Canada 121 vs. 126 (-5) prev

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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:34:27 GMT - 08/19/2016  
Canada retail sales and CPI miss

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:32:10 GMT - 08/19/2016  
Canada: CPI (July) Retail Sales (June) 2016

Canada Charts

Bank of Canada Core
yy: +2.10% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.
mm: -0.20% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
yy:+1.30% vs. +1.30% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.


Retail Sales
Headline: -0.10% vs. 0.50% exp. vs. +0.20% (r) prev.
X-Autos: -0.80% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.90% (r) prev.

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dc CB  20:50:41 GMT - 08/18/2016  
That's right, we can blame Woody for this mess that has devalued our fine currency by 5% (so far) this year. Yesterday, we got a peek behind the curtain at the Fed through the minutes of their July meeting which, frankly, were barely distinguishable from their Jan, March, April or June Meetings and will not likely vary much in Sept, Nov or December either but that doesn't stop the Financial Media from treating these monthly meetings and the minutes of the monthly meetings (16 times a year!) like they are some kind of Earth-shaking revelations – EVERY SINGLE TIME!

Of course, the Fed would never say "we're going to raise rates 0.25% in September" even though it is August 18th and you would think they would know by now but where's the fun in telling people your plans? It's so much more fun to watch them run around in circles trying to interpret all the hints you drop along the way. That's why, in addtion to 16 meetings and minutes, we have had over 200 Fed speeches this year – AND STILL WE KNOW NOTHING!

It's all Woody's fault

Livingston nh  20:43:36 GMT - 08/18/2016  
I'm sorry to rant about these mopes - the differences between them are too small for a paper to pass thru -- 40 years ago these theorists would have been confined to the back room

Williams has been on this 19th century interest rate for two decades - every expert has a favorite tree in the forest of human endeavor - a good cross examination only requires THAT YOU BEAK A FEW BRANCHES OVER HIS HEAD SO NO NEED TO BURN DOWN THE FOREST

Livingston nh  20:21:35 GMT - 08/18/2016  
Williams just went through a whole NEW NORMAL routine a few days ago about raising the inflation target - he can't vote so talks cheap - he didn't dissent once // he's as bad as Bullard

Livingston nh  20:11:05 GMT - 08/18/2016  
he still is a dove

GVI Trading Room john bland  20:06:29 GMT - 08/18/2016  
Williams used to be a dove...

GVI Trading Room john bland  20:05:44 GMT - 08/18/2016  
SF Fed President Williams
-- pretty much at full employment
-- current labor growth unsustainable in LT
-- sees strong domestic economy
-- makes sense to get gradual rate increases sooner than later
-- earlier start to raising rates will give room to fine tune

Livingston nh  19:05:50 GMT - 08/18/2016  
Dudley et al still don't understand WHY inflation hasn't picked up as the unemployment rate declines - the book says it should have happened

SO now he (FOMC?) is back on the unemployment rate BUT remember when a 6% rate was the magic number until it happened faster than the Fed expected

SO it is REALLY all about inflation (watch Williams w/ his neutral/natural rate of interest) and "full" employment is the Fed's expected Early Warning System -- this is what the Medieval debates about Angels and Pinheads must have been like

Mtl JP  17:58:04 GMT - 08/18/2016  
admittedly Dudley does has a sense of humor

what remains to be seen is if he can/will continue with it and see it morph into something else

dc CB  17:51:07 GMT - 08/18/2016  

Dudley DoRight doing it right for Treasuries.

Mtl JP  17:20:32 GMT - 08/18/2016  
nh probably good reason to stay away from cad$:
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will make an official week-long visit to China to build closer ties between the two countries, his office said on Thursday.

NY JM  16:41:09 GMT - 08/18/2016  
Red, I show the 100 week mva around 1.1325

May I ask where 1.1360/65 comes from? I show the pre-Brexit high as 1.1426 as all that is left besides the HOD

london red  16:36:01 GMT - 08/18/2016  
im suggesting sell 60/65 first cover 113-11315 and look to reverse there with stop below todays low.

Bali Sja  16:25:47 GMT - 08/18/2016  
Red you are suggesting buy euro on dips for 1.14 tomorrow?

london red  16:22:44 GMT - 08/18/2016  
euro. id be surprised to see 11360/65 taken without some kind of pullback (to maybe 113/11315). if present trend continues 114/11415 looks on the cards tomorrow if they can bust my res. there has not been a close abv the 100 wk ma since well north of 1.30, so they will "price in" the break tomorrow. hence if to close north of that at all (11307) it needs to close well north of it.

Mtl JP  16:13:37 GMT - 08/18/2016  
two more "open mouth" operators on deck today:
non-voters Williams and follows Kaplan later in the eve

Mtl JP  15:50:17 GMT - 08/18/2016  
lol, talking of magic spells ...

SEC cracks down on made-up numbers in company earnings

GVI Trading Room john bland  15:13:58 GMT - 08/18/2016  
-- Watch jobs data more than GDP
-- Strong GDP would help case for rate hike
-- 50K to 100K in monthly jobs growth sufficient to stabilize unemployment rate

Livingston nh  14:59:15 GMT - 08/18/2016  
It appears that Dudley has pulled the Sept meeting off life support - his simple restatement of the obvious today was ineffective // what magic spell will Yellen weave next Friday?

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:30:30 GMT - 08/18/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

+22 vs. +25 exp vs. +29 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  14:09:46 GMT - 08/18/2016  
-- fears of labor market stalling much reduced
-- recent data confirms jobs market continues to improve
-- middle income jobs picking up

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:00:31 GMT - 08/18/2016  
U.S. Leading Indicators July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.40% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.

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Mtl JP  13:47:03 GMT - 08/18/2016  
Shares of Caterpillar Inc. slumped 1.4% in morning trade Thursday, after the industrial machine and equipment maker reported the declines in retail sales of machines in the last month accelerated from the previous month.

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:31:30 GMT - 08/18/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)
262K vs. 265K exp. vs. 266K prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:30:56 GMT - 08/18/2016  
U.S. Philly Fed Index August 2016
U.S. Data Charts


2.00 vs. 1.30 exp. vs. -2.9 prev.

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Mtl JP  12:29:29 GMT - 08/18/2016  
saw this earlier, fwiw:
Bank of Japan Likely to Take Bold Easing Action, Says Abe Adviser
By Takashi Nakamichi7 hours ago in WSJ

Mtl JP  12:18:36 GMT - 08/18/2016  
john bland 12:00 - sounds like 0bama needs a distraction ?

Livingston nh  12:15:55 GMT - 08/18/2016  
John - probably coincidence that Putin just finished meeting w/ Erdogan

Bali Sja  12:03:39 GMT - 08/18/2016  
Good job Ukraine. Gold will not go down much..

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:00:23 GMT - 08/18/2016  
Ukraine President. Situation worsening in Eastern Ukraine. Will not rule out full-scale war with Russia.

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  09:02:52 GMT - 08/18/2016  
EZ Final HICP. Headline HICP unrevised.

GVI Trading Room john bland  09:00:51 GMT - 08/18/2016  


yy: +0.20 vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.

HICP core
yy:+0.90% % vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  08:32:05 GMT - 08/18/2016  
Retail sales much better than expected. GBP higher.

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:31:19 GMT - 08/18/2016  
U.K. Retail Sales July 2016
U.K. Charts


mm: +1.40% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.90% (r ) prev.
mm: +1.50% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. -0.90% (r ) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales

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dc CB  18:11:17 GMT - 08/17/2016  
You've all been punked. These are the FMOC mins from 2010.
No one noticed the difference!!!!


GVI Trading Room john bland  18:10:32 GMT - 08/17/2016  
Surprisingly little news in the minutes. Big swings on the headlines nevertheless. These headlines are not a game changer. Fed likely to err on the side of caution.

GVI Trading Room john bland  18:02:54 GMT - 08/17/2016  
U.S. July Fed Policy Minutes
U.S. Data Charts

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

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london red  17:50:47 GMT - 08/17/2016  
fed minutes might be a bit more hawkish but euro and cable should see dip buying 11235-30 12958-55. eod options showing about 25 pips for a euro straddle so initial sup/res and likely to hold unless something very surprising.

GVI Trading Room john bland  17:06:56 GMT - 08/17/2016  
St Louis Fed President Bullard
-- Fed rate target close to appropriate
-- U.S. economy not headed for recession
-- Sees one rate hike over next two years

Source: TTN

dc CB  14:38:55 GMT - 08/17/2016  
API, again very dif numbers.

Crude -1.007
Gasoline +2.176

but then Crude "wants" to be back above 50.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:34:45 GMT - 08/17/2016  
Larger than expected draws in crude and gasoline. Oil futures are higher.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:33:28 GMT - 08/17/2016  
Crude Oil: -2.500 vs. -0.300 exp vs. +1.100 prev.
Gasoline: -2.700 vs. -1.125 exp vs. -2.800 prev.
Distillates: +1.900 vs. +0.375 exp vs. -2.000 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI Trading Room john bland  08:35:24 GMT - 08/17/2016  
UK jobless claims better than expected. GBP up.

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:32:10 GMT - 08/17/2016  
U.K. Employment June/July 2016


Claimant Count (000): -8.0 vs. +9.0 exp. vs. +0.4 (r +0.9)prev.
ILO Rate: 4.90% vs. 4.90% exp. vs. 4.90% prev.
earnings: 2.40% vs. 2.40% exp. vs. 2.30% prev.
earnings x-bonus: 2.30% vs. 2.30% exp. vs. 2.20% prev.

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nw kw  01:51:41 GMT - 08/17/2016  
key to new health is Nitric Oxide, improves cells intake rate for food and O2, saved my life few years back, you don't need much so I you'd take a bit, new from few years back now common and beater than steroids, and no bad stuff for body. unreel help,

nw kw  01:39:20 GMT - 08/17/2016  
c2 unstable so now I do deep breaths to adjust upper ribs,c2 moves ito place and so I get power back from nerves arnt under stress or inflamed but your right ill do more pl in time,tks, key stretch backwards for you get puled forward for short gut mussels.

dc CB  01:37:44 GMT - 08/17/2016  
ACC 01:09

actually it's on that local level where it actually works, voting does have an influence on what gets done.

dc CB  01:27:25 GMT - 08/17/2016  
I found a way to fix bad back

how. I fixed mine doing Pilates. 30's, 40's, 50s,...then I found it 65 and never better.

nw kw  01:19:51 GMT - 08/17/2016  
us starting soft and strong yen ,gl, short uj

Sydney ACC  01:09:30 GMT - 08/17/2016  
On the one hand the US takes democracy to the nth degree - electing officials such as judges and districts of attorney, whereas in countries that follow the British parliamentary system voting is restricted to parliamentary and local council representatives.

On the other gerrymandering of electoral boundaries and is a pervasive practice carried on by both parties which neutralises the impact of many voters. A practice that has continued to impact US elections since the founding of the Republic.

The United States is alone among major countries in that self-interested politicians govern the redistricting process.

nw kw  00:57:44 GMT - 08/17/2016  
but i have JAY to thank for all help over the years and having the passions to help traders new and vets.TKS, KW

nw kw  00:52:38 GMT - 08/17/2016  
jp- now ill gibberish you now look out man?

nw kw  00:48:10 GMT - 08/17/2016  
CB- I found a way to fix bad back now I have my head back in game so lookout market I'm back after 20y struggle, no Mersey now, chart killer in game now, look out bankster,

nw kw  00:40:48 GMT - 08/17/2016  
Congress and senate, looking for majority so things get approved faster no conflicts, tks, so will this change this new voting for a pres or is it a hole different proses. I believe so or not.

dc CB  00:31:04 GMT - 08/17/2016  
it's not a Parlimentary System. There is no Upper/Lower House.
It is a Representative government.

The House of Represetatives has a 2 year term. Apportioned by Population of each state.

The Senate has a 6 year term. Not appportioned by population...2 from each state.

The Pres runs the Exec Branch

Getting a Majority in the Congress - There are really only 2 parties, does not guareentee cooperation between the Pres and the Congress.

The only real infuence of the Pres Election cycle is that some voters simply vote the ticket...which means they vote Repub or Democrat across those on the ballott.

You need to Google " how the US Gov Works.

nw kw  00:21:40 GMT - 08/17/2016  
CB - can you comment on this for nh might be off line.

nw kw  00:04:43 GMT - 08/17/2016  
nh-Congress, and or lower or upper house is it part of new presidents voting, or dues it change this elections // I'm looking for if we can get a majority in upper and lower house this pez elections, nh- forgive me for I lost track how proses is dun. TKI, kw.

dc CB  23:43:30 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Nov 1
prob won't see too much discussion about this in the MSM

At Least Six Swing States Face Double-Digit Premium Hikes under Obamacare

Livingston nh  21:50:20 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Krugman is typical of Nobel guys - one great insight that was very lonely for companionship -- he thinx raising taxes will support spending (a throwback to the balanced budget conservatives) when the reality is build the infrastructure, give the property away and use debt as money (that's how we grew)

dc CB  21:41:40 GMT - 08/16/2016  
A Hillary Clinton presidency would represent a third Obama term, prominent liberal columnist and economist Paul Krugman said Monday.

"It's a continuation. It is Obama's third term," the Nobel-winning economist said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. "It's center-left governance with fairly cautious proposals."

Krugman, who has advocated for liberal economic policies and greater fiscal stimulus, has written that Clinton and her advisers have been cautious in their estimates of the economic growth her proposals would produce.

Although some of her plans are "fairly significant," he said, such as her proposed tax increases on high-income earners, overall "it's the same kind of governance we've had."

Clinton presidency would be 'Obama's third term,' Paul Krugman says

Livingston nh  20:42:36 GMT - 08/16/2016  
And where did that PRODUCTION DRAW go - Gasoline and distillates -- things we use (but not so much)

GVI Trading Room john bland  20:38:55 GMT - 08/16/2016  
US Weekly API Crude

Reportedly -1.000 mn vs. -0.300 mn exp

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dc CB  17:08:37 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Atlanta Fed ‏@AtlantaFed 12m12 minutes ago

Lockhart's baseline forecast calls for full employment and price stability over the next year and a half

(but only if you Vote ObamaHILLARY for 4 more years)

Paris ib  17:03:09 GMT - 08/16/2016  
These guys need to stop crying wolf.

GVI Trading Room john bland  16:52:34 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Atlanta Fed's Lockhart
-- underlying economic fundamentals solid
-- Economy had not stalled
-- Uncertainty an issue
-- Economy closing in on full-employment

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:45:50 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Atlanta Fed 3Q16 GDP forecast 3.6% vs 3.5% on Aug 12 (annualized growth)

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:17:59 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Industrial Production beat.

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:17:02 GMT - 08/16/2016  
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Ind Production: +0.70% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.60% (r +0.40% ) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 75.9% vs. n/a exp. vs. 75.40% (r ) prev.

RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:32:35 GMT - 08/16/2016  
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Starts: 1.211 vs. 1.180 exp. vs. 1.190 (r 1.1860 ) prev.
Permits: 1.152 vs. 1.180 exp. vs. 1.150 prev.

New Residential Construction

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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:31:27 GMT - 08/16/2016  
U.S. CPI misses

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:31:01 GMT - 08/16/2016  
U.S. Consumer Price Index July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

m/m: 0.00 vs. +0.00% exp. v +0.20% pre
y/y: +0.80% vs. +0.90% exp. v +1.00% pre
y/y: +2.20% vs. +2.20% exp. v +2.30% pre

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index

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GVI Trading Room john bland  09:01:47 GMT - 08/16/2016  
German headline ZEW beats.

GVI Trading Room john bland  09:00:52 GMT - 08/16/2016  
BREAKING NEWS: German ZEW Survey August 2016


Current Situation: +57.6 vs. +50.1 exp. vs. +49.8 prev.

Economic Expectations: +0.5 vs. +2.5 exp. vs. -6.8 prev.

RELEASE: German ZEW Survey

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GVI Trading Room john bland  08:32:51 GMT - 08/16/2016  
UK CPI prices hotter than expected. GBP higher.

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:31:31 GMT - 08/16/2016  
U.K. CPI July 2016
U.K. Charts


CPI m/m: -0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
CPI y/y: +0.60% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.

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Mtl JP  17:41:49 GMT - 08/15/2016  
S&P - apparently a close above 2,184.05 would be a new all-time high.

Mtl JP  17:39:03 GMT - 08/15/2016  
cretins - this time Willians - just screwing with players heads; good cop bad cop game.

and stupid market lets 'em
sofar at least
euro: descending t-line res at 1.1250

GVI Trading Room john bland  17:06:15 GMT - 08/15/2016  
Williams has been in favor of more rate hikes, apparently also QE infinity.

GVI Trading Room john bland  17:05:07 GMT - 08/15/2016  
SF Fed President Williams
-- Time to study moving away from 2% inflation target.
-- Should consider higher targets

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:00:18 GMT - 08/15/2016  
U.S. NAHB Index August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

60 vs. 60 exp. vs. 59 (r 58) prev.


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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:30:25 GMT - 08/15/2016  
Empire PMI August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-4.21 vs.+2.00 vs. +0.55 prev.

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Mon 27 May 2019
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Tue 28 May 2019
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C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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