GVI Trading Room john bland 20:07:41 GMT - 08/25/2016
Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.
Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+75% from +69% late Wednesday.
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:10:31 GMT - 08/25/2016
26-Aug FRI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- University of Michigan
14:00 US- Yellen at Jackson Hole 29-Aug MON
00:00 GB- Holiday
12:30 US- PCE Deflator 30-Aug TUE
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence 31-Aug WED
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
07:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Employment
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Weekly Crude 1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless 2-SEP FRI
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade Trading Themes --
The focus now is on the Yellen speech Friday, where many expect a more hawkish tone. She speaks Friday morning (14:00 GMT) at the Kansas City Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Most expect a message that the economy is strong enough to withstand a modest step towards a policy normalization.
Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley already have laid the groundwork for a December rate hike. This is a political decision for the Fed. Waiting for the December meeting would be the easiest path.
The closely followed German IFO business sentiment survey for August missed street estimates by a wide margin and could bode poorly for the economy in the near future.
Markets feel now the U.K. economy could flourish once it is out from under the control of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp GDP decline since Brexit has been an immediate economic stimulus. The market is heavily short the GBP according to COT data.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
nw kw 00:35:38 GMT - 08/26/2016
Canada will likely maintain its 2 percent inflation target and bypass alternative policy goals when the central bank renews its inflation-control agreement this year, strategists say, but the main measure of core inflation may change.
The Bank of Canada and government set an inflation targeting agreement, which guides the bank's interest rate decisions, every five years and the next update is this fall. Canada's annual inflation slowed to 1.3 percent in July.
Stubbornly low inflation and low or sub-zero interest rates in many countries have sparked discussion among global central bankers about alternative policy goals, including price-level and nominal gross domestic product targeting.
Canada will likely maintain its 2 percent inflation target and bypass alternative policy goals when the central bank renews its inflation-control agreement this year, strategists say, but the main measure of core inflation may change.
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:24:20 GMT - 08/26/2016
26-Aug FRI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- University of Michigan
14:00 US- Yellen at Jackson Hole 29-Aug MON
00:00 GB- Holiday
12:30 US- PCE Deflator 30-Aug TUE
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence 31-Aug WED
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
07:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Employment
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Weekly Crude 1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless 2-SEP FRI
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade Trading Themes --
The focus finally is on the Yellen speech today. Most expect a more hawkish tone. She speaks at14:00 GMT) at the Kansas City Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Most expect a message that the economy is strong enough to withstand a modest step towards a policy normalization.
Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley already have laid the groundwork for a December rate hike. This is a political decision for the Fed. Waiting for the December meeting would be the easiest path.
Japanese July CPI released today indicated that the economy remains mired in deflation.
Monday is a holiday for London. Manny feel now the U.K. economy could flourish once it is out from under the control of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp GDP decline since Brexit has been an immediate economic stimulus.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john bland 11:06:00 GMT - 08/26/2016
DAX -31
DJ -8
SP -1
10-yr 1.571% -0.7bp
GVI Trading Room john bland 11:10:07 GMT - 08/26/2016
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GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 11:35:59 GMT - 08/26/2016
2 hours and 25 minutes until Yellen speaks. All we know is that the market will react. Until then hibernation.
GVI Trading Room john bland 11:39:13 GMT - 08/26/2016
Markets could react to the GDP revision at 12:30 GMT. News Algos don't know about Yellen yet.
GVI Trading Room john bland 11:40:56 GMT - 08/26/2016
Revisions to early GDP estimates can be large.
london red 11:42:59 GMT - 08/26/2016
us gdp likely a slight miss given data since first print. maybe 1%.
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:10:10 GMT - 08/26/2016
For the record
I put Sep rate hike odds at 28% at the moment. Depends on your assumptions. This is the "high side" estimate.
Odds on a December hike are roughly 75% (assumes no Sep hike). .
10-yr 1.568% -1.0bp
Livingston nh 12:30:20 GMT - 08/26/2016
If the Fed will truly substitute "political" uncertainty as another of its myriad excuses then September hike might be more dangerous than November -- took some time for the reaction to last hike to set in -- "OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February" (M. Twain)
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:12:11 GMT - 08/26/2016
EURUSD hit exactly at Amazing Trader 1.1311 resistance.
As I noted in the trading room the only levels that matter are 1.1240/45 and 1.1355/66
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:24:04 GMT - 08/26/2016
Remarkable how Jay's 1.1240 line held! Amazing Trader strikes again.
1.1355/66 are key on top.
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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