"If rates continue to rise it won't just be bond prices that will collapse. It will be every asset that has been priced off that so called "risk free rate of return" offered by sovereign debt.... All of the asset prices negative interest rates have so massively distorted including; corporate debt, municipal bonds, REITs, CLOs, equities, commodities, luxury cars, art, all fixed income assets and their proxies, and everything in between, will fall concurrently along with the global economy."
Depends on how much the FED prints to finance the 1 trillion Trump plan. Enough printing and you have the risk of hyper inflation. But hyper inflation might not be a global phenomenon. It normally is contained in the country responsible, take Brazil or Argentina or Zimbabwe.
nw kw 17:09:23 GMT - 11/15/2016
heat map turned cadchf
Livingston nh 17:03:59 GMT - 11/15/2016
Beginning of November last year WTI was about $46 - a 2 day rally based on the "possibility" of OPEC agreeing on a freeze or even a cut that won't be effective until early Spring -- watch the BH rig count and keep in mind that PIPELINE is easy infrastructure decision (not Govvie money) for new Prez
nw kw 16:54:25 GMT - 11/15/2016
commodities have a cheaper china, reversal support, stronger aud as a result.
Israel Dil 16:51:27 GMT - 11/15/2016
inflation? - global hyper inflation more likely...
Paris ib 16:47:49 GMT - 11/15/2016
John I have no idea what is going on with commodities right now, we have had quite a lot of everything. But if OIL goes up so does inflation. Bonds are already selling off. I think we need to wipe the slate clean here. Next year will be a break from everything we have seen these past five years IMVHO. Currency implications? To be advised. The dust has got to settle and we ain't there yet. Not by a long shot.
nw kw 16:45:26 GMT - 11/15/2016
pit. oil paradise range trading.
london red 16:45:16 GMT - 11/15/2016
relative to everything else thats gone up it was cheap. i was watching earlier and thinking 3% today is too late to jump in, i will buy the pullback tom. well there u go...
GVI Trading john bland 16:43:07 GMT - 11/15/2016
I posted yesterday that Cramer said yesterday the big OPEC meeting on November 30 is already a bust with Iraq, Iran, Russia and the Saudis producing all they can.
I was surprised to see WTI higher today.
Paris ib 16:41:08 GMT - 11/15/2016
OT think it's more than short covering... 4.5 percent up in one day? Whoa. Russia's pay day....
london red 16:40:50 GMT - 11/15/2016
if thats what you are arguing with trump, i would assume all of this infrastructure investment and construction would require an increase in oil consumption. i wouldnt be surprised to see it at 50 at some stage this year. esp if mkt holds on this this reflation theme.
Israel Dil 16:39:09 GMT - 11/15/2016
$70+++ that's the play, geo political chaos to take control of the trading theme
UK OT 16:38:22 GMT - 11/15/2016
Traders and analysts also pointed to a report from Monday about a last ditch effort by OPEC to bring the world's top producers together to rein in production, saying it triggered a wave of short covering... reuters
Paris ib 16:34:39 GMT - 11/15/2016
What is happening to OIL?
Paris ib 16:46:42 GMT - 10/19/2016
nh the price of Oil has virtually doubled since the low at the beginning of the year. So we have a trend.
Livingston nh 15:49:04 GMT - 10/19/2016
Oil is only up a little more than a buck since last October about the same as June before Brexit -- the inflation from commodity side is fleeting -- SERVICES in the US is the home of inflation (see BLS yesterday) and that's sticky prices
Mtl JP 15:47:03 GMT - 10/19/2016
yes, I agree w/u
Paris ib 15:44:23 GMT - 10/19/2016
JP you make that point over and over again. I think we all know that the point is to trade movements in the market.
Mtl JP 15:42:38 GMT - 10/19/2016
and so it becomes a simple matter of being on one side or the other of the toll booth: fee paying or fee recieving.
need to share more getting filthy rich financial / trade ideas
Paris ib 15:38:27 GMT - 10/19/2016
John I do get your point. The thing is this 'deflation' narrative is bogus, the inflation headline is meaningless and markets (such as the Oil market) are manipulated for geopolitical reasons, so they are in no way a reflection of the strength of supply and demand or of anything else for that matter. That said, a rising oil price will show up in a rising headline rate of inflation. Things are surreal right now. So inflation is anything 'they' say it is and interest rates are set for geopolitical reasons first and foremost. And I think that is the only point of view which will save you from costly trading mistakes. :-)
Still 'they' are losing control of the narrative. Big time.
PAR15:27:38 GMT - 10/19/2016
Higher oil prices are a transfer of wealth from consumers to oil producing countries and to their own governments because higher gasoline prices means higher vat or sales tax .
The consumer is the big loser and shops and restaurants will feel the pain .
GVI Trading john bland 15:27:21 GMT - 10/19/2016
ib- that is my point. A 2% inflation print does not defeat deflation nor stimulate growth. Its just a number, and likely inaccurate at that!
Mtl JP 15:19:59 GMT - 10/19/2016
legislated, institutionalized peddling of 2% inflation is, simly, theft.
Paris ib 15:05:53 GMT - 10/19/2016
John I think the whole inflation narrative is a giant scam. If they are looking at headline inflation then rising oil prices puts inflation up. And in the 1970s and the 1980s they hiked rates like h.ell because of rising oil prices. With all the negative consequences that we know. The headline rate of inflation is ANYTHING you want it to be and IMVHO it means nothing at all as a data point. It's just an alibi.
That said their alibi now looks a little weaker than previously.
GVI Trading john bland 15:00:16 GMT - 10/19/2016
Is higher inflation due to higher energy prices good news? Aren't higher energy prices effectively a "tax" on consumers and therefore deflationary?
Paris ib 14:47:50 GMT - 10/19/2016
They wanted more inflation. They got it. Smiles all round I guess. :-)
Paris ib 17:39:49 GMT - 09/30/2016
"Letís restate Putinís long term goal ó a duplication of the oil cartel that was signed in Scotland some 90 years ago involving Exxon (then the Rockefellerís Standard Oil), BP (then the Anglo-Persian Oil Co), Rothschildísí Shell and others."
"Thanks to the blunders of the US in the Middle East, Putin saw a chance to establish a totally new order in the oil market.
The first step was to forge a combination of Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria in the current Middle East war. We are now seeing that this combination has achieved a great deal of success, although there is a lot further to go."
Paris ib 17:08 GMT February 17, 2016
crude oil : Reply
"Last nightís arrangements between Saudi Arabia and Russia will go down as a historic turning point in global affairs....
In itself, the Russian-Saudi deal does not change the depressed oil market significantly. All the two major producers have agreed to do is freeze output. And the deal does not include Iran, which is certainly going to increase output.
What is unusual about the deal is that Saudi Arabia and Russia are on opposite sides of the military conflict in Syria and the deal becomes a potential game changer when put into the context of the ambitious agenda of Russian President Vladimir Putin."
How much is the price of OIL up this year so far?
Paris ib 17:08:29 GMT - 09/30/2016
And OIL? Well hey defying on the gloom mongerers.
And with what is going on in the Middle East the whole U.S. strategy to get the OIL price down to hurt Russia - blah blah blah - is unravelling.
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