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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:30:35 GMT - 08/29/2016  
U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Personal Income +0.40% vs. +0.30% exp v +0.20% prev.
PCE Defl +1.60% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.60% prev.

RELEASE: Personal Income

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GVI Trading Room john bland  15:21:25 GMT - 08/29/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDP now tracking estimate for 3Q16 GDP 3.50% (annualized) vs 3.40% on August 25.

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:01:18 GMT - 08/30/2016  
Fed Vice Chair Fischer to appear live on Bloomberg TV at 10:30 GMT. This will give Fischer an opportunity to coordinate his message with Chair Yellen if he so desires??

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:33:03 GMT - 08/30/2016  
-- cannot say rate hike will be "One and Done" will depend on economy

dc CB  10:36:43 GMT - 08/30/2016  
The full EU press release is below:

State aid: Ireland gave illegal tax benefits to Apple worth up to €13 billion

Brussels, 30 August 2016

The European Commission has concluded that Ireland granted undue tax benefits of up to €13 billion to Apple. This is illegal under EU state aid rules, because it allowed Apple to pay substantially less tax than other businesses. Ireland must now recover the illegal aid.

Apple Ordered To Pay $14.5 Billion In "Illegal" Tax Benefits, Stock Falls 2%

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:40:10 GMT - 08/30/2016  
-- close to full employment
-- productivity very slow
-- no plans to go to negative rates
-- negative seem to work up to a point

dc CB  10:41:35 GMT - 08/30/2016  
Fisher: Watch me trigger the Crude-USD/JPY-Treas simply moving my lips. Frankly that's what we all really get off on---.

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:44:45 GMT - 08/30/2016  
Fischer done. By saying nothing you might feel he said something?
He did not reiterate his more hawkish posture than Yellen's...

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:48:13 GMT - 08/30/2016  
10-yr last 1.570% vs 1.590% beforehand.

dc CB  10:51:59 GMT - 08/30/2016  
- that was fun. Hope it was good for you

I love the smell of Algos in the morning

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:59:58 GMT - 08/30/2016  
I'm sorry to be old school. It used to be that for some reason the Fed would speak in "code". If you understood the code you could figure out their policy.

Now the Fed speaks gibberish. When they speak, there is nothing to figure out.

Livingston nh  12:52:19 GMT - 08/30/2016  
Watching Fischer's attempt to "say" nothing (for a guy who is nuanced when he says Good Morning) triggered for some reason the fact that Yellen has less than a year left - Labor Day kicks off serious Presidential bets and the higher risk of a slowdown over the next year // the reappointment of a Fed Chair is an interesting test for a new President -- a clean break is usually wanted BUT poses risks -- Yellen hasn't cleaned out the stables and the new Congress/President are not likely to want any more Monetary Policy experiments if the economy falters - by this time next year there will be a lot of "damning with faint praise"

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:01:06 GMT - 08/30/2016  
U.S. Case Shiller-20 June 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+5.10% vs. +5.10% exp. vs. +5.20% prev.

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Livingston nh  13:40:11 GMT - 08/30/2016  
The European Commission may have triggered the next EU crisis w/ this Apple finding // it seems to me Ireland is in charge of its tax policy and MIGHT be liable to a Commission finding (although that seems a shaky proposition) BUT if Apple followed the Irish rules re: tax then it seems the Commission has no jurisdiction and certainly no claim to "restitution", directly or indirectly -- the dispute is w/ Ireland // A lot of JOBS are at stake

The US opposition to the ruling is merely an objection that the Treasury did not get a "share" -- the US tries to pull this all the time and favors the end of these tax deals BUT it will need to be paid off or the Commission will be stuck

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:00:16 GMT - 08/30/2016  
U.S. Conference Board Survey August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

101.1 vs. 97.0 exp. vs. 97.3 (r) prev.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence Data

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GVI Trading Room john bland  14:01:58 GMT - 08/30/2016  
Much stronger than expected. Supportive of a Fed hike.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:01:59 GMT - 08/30/2016  
Much stronger than expected. Supportive of a Fed hike.

dc CB  15:48:13 GMT - 08/30/2016  
From this morning.

FISCHER: Well, clearly there are different responses to negative rates. If you’re a saver, they’re very difficult to deal with and to accept, although typically they go along with quite decent equity prices. But we consider all that and we have to make trade-offs in economics all the time and the idea is the lower the interest rate the better it is for investors.

Me, I have a really FAT SToX Porfolio.

GVI Trading Room john bland  20:35:55 GMT - 08/30/2016  
US Weekly API Crude

Reportedly +0.940 mn vs. +1.300 mn exp

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GVI Trading Room john bland  07:50:28 GMT - 08/31/2016  
German Real Retail Sales July 2016

Earlier NEWS Release
mm: +1.70% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. -0.10% (r -0.60%)prev.

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EZ and German Charts
EARLIER: German Retail Sales mixed.

GVI Trading Room john bland  07:56:08 GMT - 08/31/2016  
German Unemployment August 2016

Rate: 6.10% vs. 6.10% exp. vs. 6.10% prev.
Change: -7K vs. -2K exp. vs. -7K (r) prev.

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london red  07:57:53 GMT - 08/31/2016  
poss some consolidation for dollar vs euro and yen ahead of data. maybe not much pullback but no fresh highs held either.

LONDON SFH  08:35:54 GMT - 08/31/2016  
Fft airport evacuated - bomb threat

GVI Trading Room john bland  09:01:13 GMT - 08/31/2016  
EZ Unemployment July 2016

10.10% vs. 10.10% exp. vs. 10.10% (r ) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  09:01:33 GMT - 08/31/2016  
Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) August 2016

yy: +0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
yy: +0.80% vs. vs. 0.90% exp. vs. 0.90% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  09:02:32 GMT - 08/31/2016  
EZ flash August inflation falls short of estimates.

GVI Trading Room john bland  09:03:14 GMT - 08/31/2016  
EZ flash August inflation falls short of estimates.

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:13:36 GMT - 08/31/2016  
UK PM May: UK will follow through on Brexit

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:15:58 GMT - 08/31/2016  
Interesting she has felt the need to state this after recent rumblings her commitment to Bexit has not been solid. EC Monopoly Commission tax ruling on Apple/Ireland supportive of the Brexit cause.

LONDON SFH  10:27:33 GMT - 08/31/2016  
She is a politician....she feels the need to speak unnecessarily full stop

london red  10:30:35 GMT - 08/31/2016  
re may, theres has been some speculation via the media from various ex ministers and some other civil servants re brexit such as fading away, second referendums, labours owen smith vowing to fight to avoid eu exit. sadly for them, brexit will take place as not going through with it means your party is unelectable for the remainder of the generation. so various misguided attempts by lawyers and politicians to stop the process will fail. the public will not be swayed and any future votes will only cement the current position. it should be accepted by remainers so that we can all move forward, but of course for there to be intelligent folk, there is a need for lesser folk to compare them against. but thats in essence how money is made, so long may it continue. to sum up, there will be a brexit, they will bring the pound down, but it will then begin a multi year rally.

LONDON SFH  10:36:03 GMT - 08/31/2016  
Voting for brexit has caused stg to dump even tho the brexitiers said it woudlnt happen...why should we believe the call for a rally now?

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:15:13 GMT - 08/31/2016  
U.S. ADP Private Employment August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+177K vs. +175K exp. vs. +179K (r +194) prev.

RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®

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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:16:04 GMT - 08/31/2016  
ADP dead on estimates

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:30:25 GMT - 08/31/2016  
Canada: GDP June 2016

m/m +0.60% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. -0.60% () prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  13:45:14 GMT - 08/31/2016  
Chicago PMI August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

51.5 vs. 54.0 exp. vs. 55.8 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  13:46:03 GMT - 08/31/2016  
Chi PMI miss.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:00:38 GMT - 08/31/2016  
U.S. Pending Homes Sales July 2016
U.S. Data Charts


+1.30% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +0.20% (r-0.80%) prev.
RELEASE: Pending Home Sales

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GVI Trading Room john bland  14:01:55 GMT - 08/31/2016  
Mixed Pending Homes data after previous data revision.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:31:20 GMT - 08/31/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: +2.280 vs. +1.310 exp vs. +0.500 prev.
Gasoline: -0.700 vs. -1.640 exp vs. +0.036 prev.
Distillates: +1.500 vs. +0.080 exp vs. -0.090 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI Trading Room john bland  07:46:39 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Earlier August 2016 PMIs

50.5 vs. 50.5 vs. 50.1 prev.
Swiss PMI gains to 50.5 from 50.1

46.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. 56.4 prev.
Australian PMI falls sharply.

NBS: 50.4 vs. 49.9 exp vs. 49.9 prev.
Caixin: 50.0 vs. 50.1 exp vs. 50.6 prev.
China NBS PMI above "50" boom or Bust line. Caixin eases.

49.5 vs. 49.8 exp. vs. 49.8 prev.
Final Japan PMI revised down

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:01:11 GMT - 09/01/2016  
EZ Final PMIs August 2016

mfg: 51.7 vs. 51.8 exp. vs. 51.8 prev.
mfg: 53.6 vs. 53.6 exp. vs. 53.6
mfg: 48.3 vs. 48.5 exp. vs. 48.5

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Trading Room john bland  08:31:13 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Final Manufacturing PMI August 2016
U.K. Charts


53.3 vs. 49.0 exp. vs. 48.2 (r 48.3) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  08:32:12 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Major beat in UK PMI. GBP surged higher. Weak GBP seen as stimulus.

PAR 08:34:30 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Already Brexit is boosting UK economy . How wrong can banks , politicians , central bankers, the IMF and world famous economists be .

LONDON SFH  09:05:24 GMT - 09/01/2016  
PAR 08:34 GMT 09/01/2016

Of course.....the UK is a great economy demonstrated by the confidence the world is showing in it valued by currency rate,,,,

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:30:58 GMT - 09/01/2016  
U.S. Productivity 2Q16
U.S. Data Charts

   MORE: U.S. Charts


-0.60% vs. -0.60% exp. vs. -0.65% (R ) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:32:33 GMT - 09/01/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)
263K vs. 265K exp. vs. 261K prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  13:35:21 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Markit Mfg PMI August 2016

51.1 vs. n/a exp. vs. 51.9 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  13:41:06 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Canada Markit PMI. Weaker, but above the "50" expansion line.

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:45:50 GMT - 09/01/2016  
U.S. Markit PMI August 2016

52.0 vs. 52.1 exp. vs. 52.1 prev.

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Markit PMI Press Release

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:00:29 GMT - 09/01/2016  
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2016
U.S. Data Charts


49.4 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.6 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI

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GVI Trading Room john bland  14:00:46 GMT - 09/01/2016  
big miss

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:01:24 GMT - 09/01/2016  
U.S. Construction Spending July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

0.0% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. -0.60% (r ) prev.

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dc CB  14:03:23 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Hook-Line and Sinker.

Livingston nh  14:06:00 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Both ISM and PMI show drop in new orders and employment

dc CB  14:29:45 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Election Uncertainty Blamed

Algos have a new input for Sept/Oct

Nitemare in Chappaqua

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:30:47 GMT - 09/01/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

+51 vs. +41 exp vs. +11 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  15:55:44 GMT - 09/01/2016  
Atlanta Fed 3Q16 GDP forecast 3.20% vs 3.50% on Aug 29.

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:30:17 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Construction PMI August 2016


49.2 vs. 46.5 exp. vs. 45.9 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  08:31:38 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Big beat by construction PMI. Looks to me like another correction to depressed post-Brexit levels.

GVI Trading Room john bland  09:01:06 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Eurozone PPI June 2016

mm: +0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.80%) prev.
yy: -2.80% vs. -2.90% exp. vs. -3.10% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  09:01:40 GMT - 09/02/2016  
EZ PPI in line but still depressed.

Mtl JP  12:22:17 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Fewer than two-thirds of those who answered an additional question said the ECB's controversial policy of setting a negative deposit rate was good for the real economy.

The rest said negative rates, which have put pressure on bank profit margins and have left vast swathes of euro zone government bonds with negative yields, are doing more harm than good.

ECB policy on hold in Sept., to extend QE programme by year-end - poll - RTRS

PAR 12:23:40 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Caterpillar says it may lay off 2,000 workers at Belgium plant

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:31:42 GMT - 09/02/2016  
nfp= 151K R275
ahe= +0.12%

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:33:26 GMT - 09/02/2016  
U.S. Employment August 2016

NFP Jobs:
+151K vs. +180K exp. vs. +255K (r +275K ) prev.
Rate: 4.90% vs. 4.80% exp. vs. 4.90% prev.

Avg earnings: +0.12% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.30% (r ) prev.
BLS: Employment Situation Summary

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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:34:20 GMT - 09/02/2016  
U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-39.50K vs. -43.0K exp. vs. -44.5K (r) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-2.50 vs. -2.82 exp. vs. -3.30 (r )prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance

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Livingston nh  12:43:51 GMT - 09/02/2016  
The revisions in June and July were a wash -- watch out for the Pundits suggesting that August fig will be revised higher

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:52:51 GMT - 09/02/2016  
U.S. Trade Deficit narrows good for 3Q16 GDP.

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:45:57 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Aug ISM New York: 47.5 v 60.7 prior

- Source

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:02:11 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Factory Orders July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+1.90% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. -1.50% (r -1.80%)prev. rev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  15:23:00 GMT - 09/02/2016  
NY Fed 3Q16 GDP forecast 2.8% unchanged from 8/26.

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  16:26:00 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Atlanta Fed forecasts 3.5% for 3Q16 vs. 3.2% on Sep 1.


Mtl JP  16:29:47 GMT - 09/02/2016  
amazing precision from the FED's PhDs down to two decimals

GVI Trading Room john bland  16:59:46 GMT - 09/02/2016  

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Markit final Services PMI August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

51.0 vs. 50.9 exp. vs. 50.9 (flash)

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Trading Room john bland  17:01:04 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Early release Data were due next Tuesday.

GVI Trading Room john bland  17:07:24 GMT - 09/02/2016  
Minor revision...

GVI Trading Room john bland  17:09:01 GMT - 09/02/2016  
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 497 vs 489 (+8) prev
US (oil):407 vs. 406 (+1) prev

Canada 137 vs. 146 (-9) prev

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Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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