A much stronger than expected Conference Board Consumer Confidence report Tuesday set the stage for USD rally into U.S. employment data starting with the ADP Private payrolls survey on Wednesday. Some are expecting that Friday's employment report will serve as the justification for a Fed interest rate hike on September 21.
A Bloomberg interview with Fed Vice Chair Fischer shed no new light on future policy. Markets still don't trust unreliable Fed verbal signals. The central bank has lost all credibility with poorly executed "transparency". Current odds on a rate hike have started to slip again. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are down to 77% from 90% last Friday.
There is new murmuring in the markets that U.K. PM May's commitment to Brexit may be slipping. The major focus now is the timing of when she will invoke article 50. On the other hand, many expect the U.K. economy to flourish once it is out from under the thumb of Brussels.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:36:57 GMT - 08/30/2016
Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.
Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+77% from +88% late Monday.
a major focus today is U.S. Employment data for August due Friday. The data starts with the ADP Private payrolls survey. It is seen +175K vs. +179K in July. However, these data are not a reliable predictor of NFP.
Many expect that Friday's employment report could serve as a justification for a Fed interest rate hike as early as in three weeks.
On Tuesday Fed Vice Chair Fischer shed no useful light on future policy. The central bank has lost all credibility with the poorly executed "transparency" of the Fed. Current odds on a rate hike have slipped since Friday. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are down to 77% from 90%.
There is new murmuring in the markets that U.K. PM May's commitment to Brexit may be wavering. The major focus now is the timing of when she will invoke article 50.
German August employment data today were in line with estimates while July Retail Sales were mixed.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john bland 11:09:28 GMT - 08/31/2016
10-yr 1.578% +0.8bp
nw kw 12:54:18 GMT - 08/31/2016
margin for new positions opened today from 12:15:00 to 12:35:00(GMT+0) for currency pairs containing CAD will be calculated based on a maximum leverage of
Livingston nh 13:21:49 GMT - 08/31/2016
WTI - a week ago I thot/hoped oil would break $45 - maybe today // the price is at the wkly 21sma and 55ema level w/ 45 just below -- the daily 89ema is @44.93 -- Break Point $45 this week w/NFP putting a stake thru September LIVE FOMC
LONDON SFH 13:43:37 GMT - 08/31/2016
Hearing the Chi PMI is 51.5 vs 54
GVI Trading Room john bland 15:09:44 GMT - 08/31/2016
Weaker oil dragging equities lower. Watch to see if negative EURUSD correlation trade kicks in.
GVI Trading Room john bland 19:14:46 GMT - 08/31/2016
Interesting comment on CNBC. "The only reason why the Fed continues to to pursue its current policies is because they haven't worked!"
dc CB 20:38:30 GMT - 08/31/2016
john bland 19:14
red hering. It works really well for certain people. Connected people.
Why is this man on the FRBNY Board???
do a little research on -- Hamdi Ulukaya --incidently, not a US citizen.
Twins Falls Idaho...largest yougurt plant in the world... employs mainly Idahoians big boon to the local economy? Because Payrolls Matter to the FED. (sarc off)
john bland 19:14 GMT 08/31/2016 -
Interesting comment on CNBC.
“We can’t say for sure what would have happened without the repurchase, but it really looks like the stock would have kept going down because of the decline in fundamentals… these repurchases seem to hold up the stock price.” Edward Swanson
Central bankers also want their position of authority over the global economy to become a public priority. Ten years ago, when I asked average people what they knew about the Federal Reserve, most of them responded with confusion. They had never heard of the institution, let alone what its function was. Today, almost everyone knows about the Fed, but there is also an assumption attached that central banks, whether they are successful or not, are supposed to maintain economic stability.
The brave new world of central banking is a plan to expand on this corrupt correlation. That is to say, the general public and the mainstream should be questioning whether central banks should exist at all. Instead, people are arguing over what policies are better for central banks to adapt. The existence of central banks is considered an absolute. The masses are only given the option to debate what faces and what hats central banks should wear. If we get anything out of this deal, we only get to choose the form of our destructor.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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