"I do not believe that at this point in the business cycle the current very low level of interest rates is an effective solution to these longer-run issues," Mester
Mtl JP 15:24:05 GMT - 09/01/2016
fwiw voting hawk Mester yaks in approx an hour
GVI Trading Room john bland 15:08:44 GMT - 09/01/2016
S&P selling off
10-yr yield down to 1.573% -0.5bp
dc CB 13:22:32 GMT - 09/01/2016
Treas market seems to have bought the - we're gonna Hike - line or is it Hook-Line and Sinker.
Tropical Storm Hermine - last weekend was 99L. coming out of Gulf crossing Fla and riding up the East thru Labor Day. Basically killing the Last Weekend of the Summer for all Atlantic beaches.
So lots of people will NOT be burning up gasoline in their autos, boats, jet skis, private planes....
GVI Trading Room john bland 11:35:15 GMT - 09/01/2016
Equities Risk-On
DAX +45
DJ +37
SP +4
10-yr 1.590% +1.2bp
nw kw 09:07:46 GMT - 09/01/2016
see eur run?
nw kw 09:06:18 GMT - 09/01/2016
BETS?
nw kw 09:05:27 GMT - 09/01/2016
consistently accurate forecasts of past last September stimulus hit ca big and usa? some cars.
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:43:54 GMT - 09/01/2016
1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless 2-SEP FRI
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade
Trading Themes --
The focus of trade is now on Friday's release of August U.S. Non-farm Payrolls. Street estimates are for a gain in jobs on the order of 180K in the month. However, there is chatter of a statistical quirk that could result in reading of 50K below the prevailing rate. I do not trust such a story, nor would I suggest trading on it. I only mention it because its out there. NFP is a random number and I have never seen anyone who could make consistently accurate forecasts of the data.
The ADP Private payrolls survey for August saw a gain of +177K vs. a revised +194K in July. The ADP data are in line with street estimates for +180K. However, keep in mind that the ADP report notoriously is an unreliable predictor of NFP.
A strong August employment report could serve as a justification for a Fed interest rate hike on September 21).
So far August final Manufacturing PMI's have been mostly lackluster at best. The U.K. Manufacturing PMI has rebounded sharply in August due to the weaker GBP.
There is new murmuring in the markets that U.K. PM May's commitment to Brexit may be wavering. The major focus now is the timing of when she will invoke article 50.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:34:42 GMT - 08/31/2016
Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.
Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+74% from +71% late Tuesday.
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:32:13 GMT - 08/31/2016
1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless 2-SEP FRI
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade
Trading Themes --
The focus for the balance of the week will be the August U.S. Non-farm Payrolls report due on Friday. Street estimates are for a gain in jobs on the order of 180K in the month. However, there is street chatter of a statistical quirk that could result in reading of 50K below the prevailing rate. I would never trust such a story, or try to trade on it. I only mention it because the story is out there. NFP is a random number and I have never seen anyone who could make consistently accurate forecasts of the data.
The ADP Private payrolls survey for August saw a gain of +177K vs. a revised +194K in July. The ADP data are in line with street estimates for +180K. However, keep in mind that the ADP report notoriously is an unreliable predictor of NFP.
Many expect that a strong August employment report could serve as a justification for a Fed interest rate hike in as early as three weeks (September 21).
There is new murmuring in the markets that U.K. PM May's commitment to Brexit may be wavering. The major focus now is the timing of when she will invoke article 50.
German August employment data were in line with estimates while July Retail Sales were mixed.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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