Disappointing Jobs Once again the markets have been sent mixed signals by economic data. The August increase in jObs was a disappointing +151K following an average gain after revisions of 273K in the previous two months. Furthermore, Average Hourly Earnings gained by a scant 0.12% in the month vs. expectations for 0.20%. So the data missed on several counts. These data were not supportive of speculation about a September 21 increase in the Fed Funds rate.
Something else the Fed has to consider is whether the sharp decline in the August U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI was an aberration or a sign that the economy is about to slip into recession. The past three readings have been falling steadily 53.2, 52.6 and then 49.4. A reading below "50" means an economic contraction. I like the manufacturing PMIs because they tend to be more sensitive to changes in economies. Service sector PMIs tend to less sensitive to changes in the business cycle.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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