they need to raise so they can cut. i and many said this years ago. almost always any fed hike has been 100% priced in a wk before meet. we aren't there yet. penny may drop monday. or not.
loonie straddle less than a fig. initial sup/res.
Mtl JP 12:25:22 GMT - 09/09/2016
FED gang member Kaplan - he does not vote - will yak in an hour
Livingston nh 12:25:22 GMT - 09/09/2016
Interesting that Rosengren has little to say about inflation "too low"
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:24:49 GMT - 09/09/2016
Fed leaning against the wind? You never know when these jokers are sending a signal.
london red 12:24:35 GMT - 09/09/2016
2 yards at 11250 likely to limit downside til cut
Mtl JP 12:23:22 GMT - 09/09/2016
not nuff to bust the 20ma
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:22:33 GMT - 09/09/2016
Market reacting to Rosengren. EURUSD lower.
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:21:33 GMT - 09/09/2016
Rosengren (former dove now moderate)
-- Gradual rate increase appropriate
-- economy resilient despite oversea drag
-- 80-100K jobs increase sufficient keeps unemployment rate steady
-- waiting too long to hike could lead to more pronounced slowdown later
london red 11:26:25 GMT - 09/09/2016
mkt waiting for brainard on monday, the last pre fed. thinking is if normally dovish brainard turns turns more hawkish, rates could go up. but if dovish then any dollar move shud unwind. so dont think we break any big ranges but dollar shud be supported until brainard.
Mtl JP 11:15:22 GMT - 09/09/2016
red tks !
I am also somewhat guided by:
eurdlr Pivot 1.1272
50 day 1.1142
200 day 1.1136
london red 11:13:19 GMT - 09/09/2016
euro. plenty of lrg expiries today between 112-113 so mkt oscilating within a tight range with a downside slant. mkt shud make its way towards 11194-11235 band and test sup there before a rebound.
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:58:08 GMT - 09/09/2016
SFH- good point. For those who don't know what the "j-curve" is, it relates to the initial impact in the terms of trade on an exchange rate move before competitive effects kick in (6 mos or so).
LONDON SFH 08:47:41 GMT - 09/09/2016
J curve effect on the trade balance....doesnt signal any increase in demand at all
LONDON SFH 08:38:50 GMT - 09/09/2016
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:34:42 GMT - 09/09/2016
Uk trade performance (after revisions) weaker. Might reflect an increase in demand.
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:31:34 GMT - 09/09/2016
A Wall Street Journal survey of economists in recent days found that just 13.1% of them expected the Fed to raise rates at its Sept. 20-21 meeting, while 73.8% said policy makers will hold off until their December gathering.
how about that : 1.1274 comes on radar
pips in bag
Mtl JP 13:59:38 GMT - 09/08/2016
now that mario is taking his post-conf destressing leak...
if 1.1286 breaks 1.1274 comes on radar
LONDON SFH 13:54:31 GMT - 09/08/2016
Yeah I agree JP-south but not too far maybe 11280 ish...
Mtl JP 13:52:59 GMT - 09/08/2016
SFH what is your instinct about 1.13 atm ?
I am gunning south
dc CB 12:59:35 GMT - 09/08/2016
hey PM May: trigger Art 50...get out while the gettin's good.
dc CB 12:55:39 GMT - 09/08/2016
*DRAGHI SAYS ECB DIDN'T DISCUSS EXTENSION OF ASSET-PURCHASE PLAN
*DRAGHI SAYS NO ADDITIONAL STIMULUS NEEDED FOR TIME BEING
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:53:53 GMT - 09/08/2016
Draghi sounding gloomy.
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:52:42 GMT - 09/08/2016
-- expect rates to stay at present or lower levels for extended period
-- baseline scenario subject to downside risks
LONDON SFH 12:49:59 GMT - 09/08/2016
Good luck with it JP-certainly a lot of jobbing opportunties,,,
Mtl JP 12:48:10 GMT - 09/08/2016
SFH 12:30 nice
I am loading a short 1.1320, tight sl
LONDON SFH 12:42:19 GMT - 09/08/2016
Spanish 10y bond yields hit an all-time low ahead of the ECB decisions and they are struggling to form a Government with new elections looming. Risk-reward totally on its head....Draghi doing absolutely nothing could cause the EUR to weaken this time given how he seems to be able to make it only stronger when he actually does something.
euro. channel res at 11317 and 47. daily straddle about 60 pips so initial sup/res either side. draghi will try to talk dwn but if nothing more, shorts will get squeezed. thru 11350/60 plenty of stops.
LONDON SFH 12:30:48 GMT - 09/08/2016
Mtl JP 12:27 GMT 09/08/2016
It seems like a popular trade-personally I got long-just below current levels and would t/p at 11350 -go short slightly higher if seen...
Mtl JP 12:27:23 GMT - 09/08/2016
nh odds r euro is a sell on pops against 1.1320-ish
does not appear to be very good time to try to get filthy rich off the cretins
Livingston nh 12:15:19 GMT - 09/08/2016
So far Tues ISM fig had a bigger effect on EUR
Livingston nh 11:53:20 GMT - 09/08/2016
Action and reaction -- nothing new here so a reaction before DRAGHI speaks
GVI Trading Room john bland 11:49:46 GMT - 09/08/2016
ECB policy changes announced. Wait now for press conference for details.
LONDON SFH 11:46:33 GMT - 09/08/2016
*ECB REAFFIRMS PLAN TO RUN QE TO MARCH 2017 OR BEYOND IF NEEDED
thats the only news
GVI Trading Room john bland 11:45:17 GMT - 09/08/2016
European Central Bank (ECB) July 2016
Refi Rate Steady at 0.05%
Marginal Lending Rate steady at 0.30%
Deposit Rate steady At -0.40%
So what he wants to say? Pound is a very good currency? Buy now!
Mtl JP 15:33:34 GMT - 09/07/2016
is that what gbpusd bounced up on from 1.3335 ?
LONDON SFH 15:30:00 GMT - 09/07/2016
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY - I AM SAYING NEVER TO HELICOPTER MONEY
....told you he was clever
Mtl JP 15:16:58 GMT - 09/07/2016
what is pathetic - if not ridiculous - about "August stimulus package timely and coherent" - john bland 13:25, is the apparent claim that carney's monetary policy boosted past economic numbers
LONDON SFH 15:15:10 GMT - 09/07/2016
haha....very true....he isn't out of b/s ammo tho!
BOE'S CARNEY -WE ARE VERY MUCH NOT OUT OF AMMUNITION OR TRIGGER HAPPY
That sounds like an intelligent man
Mtl JP 15:11:43 GMT - 09/07/2016
because on Aug. 4th (rate cut and quantitative easing announcement), the rockstar of central banking believed his own b/s that he needed to meddle because the Brexit vote had caused the pound to dive and that the “outlook for growth in the short to medium term has weakened markedly."
nevermind that a weaker pound is a good thing on one hand.... lol
this fiat-promoting cretin is as entertaining as any that is trapped in his own cesspool of bull$h!t
LONDON SFH 15:03:17 GMT - 09/07/2016
You could also ask why he eased so quickly also
LONDON SFH 14:59:39 GMT - 09/07/2016
HE is a genius.... So why is he in favour of more easing?
Mtl JP 14:57:07 GMT - 09/07/2016
according to carney: "There's less risk of recession now compared with before Brexit referendum"
Mtl JP 14:45:40 GMT - 09/07/2016
when confused = do not trade
wait for fog to clear
Kl Fs 14:40:49 GMT - 09/07/2016
I am confused. So sell cable ?
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:38:23 GMT - 09/07/2016
-- inflation risks have receded thanks to BOE actions.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:21:21 GMT - 09/07/2016
Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Ivey PMI weaker. It is hard to trust the Ivey PMI.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:04:40 GMT - 09/07/2016
JOLTS data stronger than expected.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:02:48 GMT - 09/07/2016
BOC GDP held back by wildfires.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:00:59 GMT - 09/07/2016
numbnuts mario probably contemplating what to say about his QE program. originally was scheduled to die in sept 2016 it appears to have topped a trillion euros in govt paper and recently suffered the embarrassment of folks not wanting to let go of their govvy paper in exchange for his euros.
Mtl JP 15:27:55 GMT - 09/06/2016
players are already or will soon start to make odds on
08/09/16 11:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.05% 0.05%
Mtl JP 15:01:31 GMT - 09/06/2016
So what ls the Fed going to do now?
A: when you cant hit the target adjust the goal post.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:56:39 GMT - 09/06/2016
10-yr 1.556% -5.2bp vs. 1.609% early.
So what ls the Fed going to do now?
Earlier today (supposedly another Yellen favored index).
(US) Aug Labor Market Conditions Index Change: -0.7 v +1.0 prior - Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 14:51:59 GMT - 09/06/2016
be nice to see some future tense verbs about 1.1253
Mtl JP 14:05:58 GMT - 09/06/2016
lets see if eurdlr will try something with its range's 1.1250-ish topside
tia for guesses
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:01:32 GMT - 09/06/2016
Big miss in ISM Service PMI
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:00:34 GMT - 09/06/2016
JP - thanx -- seems all the currency devaluates are waiting for the Fed to bail them out
Mtl JP 11:50:33 GMT - 09/06/2016
Livingston nh - prepare for gv calendar's tomorrow event :
A CA BOC Rates 0.50% 0.50%
every economist surveyed expects no change from Poloz and his gang
rate rise: 0.00
rate cut: 0.01
tiny room for a surprise, usdcad BoD
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:01:10 GMT - 09/06/2016
cad on gdp strength/ china on consumer improvements/ aud on might be rba looking to up for investments /nzd milk run/
Mtl JP 16:49:59 GMT - 09/05/2016
nh 13:38 - plz tell usdcad that "Oil continues to flood the market" :-)
Livingston nh 13:38:13 GMT - 09/05/2016
G-20 effect on anything = 0000 // China continues to overproduce steel and Oil continues to flood the market -- neither of these situations will improve w/o tariffs, globalization and free trade will contract // Merkel's CDU loses out to anti-immigrant party and immigration woes continue to pile up
ECB this week - not much on offer? // Anybody see a BoC move?
kl shawn 10:27:49 GMT - 09/05/2016
crap, then what was all the buying there for...should get sold off out of this disappointment
GVI Trading Room john bland 10:14:30 GMT - 09/05/2016
Saudis: no need for production freeze at this time.
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:55:13 GMT - 09/05/2016
Crude announcement appears to be less than hoped for.
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:43:50 GMT - 09/05/2016
Reportedly they discussed oil markets and "technology cooperation"...
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:40:55 GMT - 09/05/2016
Saudi Arabia and Russia sign agreement: Await details
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:03:20 GMT - 09/05/2016
EZ Retail Sales beat expectations.
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:01:57 GMT - 09/05/2016
Eurozone Retail Sales July 2016
mm: +1.10% vs +0.00% exp. vs. +0.00% (r -0.10%) prev.
yy: +2.90% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. +1.60% (r +1.70% ) prev.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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