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GVI Trading Room john bland  14:47:03 GMT - 09/06/2016  
10-yr 1.556% -5.2bp vs. 1.609% early.


GVI Trading Room john bland  14:42:02 GMT - 09/06/2016  

1.



Seeing EURUSD short-covering. COT report Friday had the market still short.





dc CB  14:35:16 GMT - 09/06/2016  
Oil Freeze "headlines" hitting the wires.

IRAN IS NOW "CLOSER TO THE IDEA" OF FREEZING OIL PRODUCTION THAN IT WAS WHEN OPEC MINISTERS LAST MET IN JUNE: RTRS

IRAN PRESIDENT TO SUPPORT MEASURES FOR OIL PRICE RECOVERY: IRNA


nw kw  14:26:38 GMT - 09/06/2016  
eur bund range top side cfd breakout faster market / ecb risk


GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  14:24:44 GMT - 09/06/2016  

1.



Another ISM surprise that will take a Sept rate hike risk off the table and market has responded accordingly.

USDJPY is through 102.80 = post-NFP low

EURUSD is back above 1.12 (which now sets the tone) but still below its post-NFP 1.1252 high. It blasted through Amazing Trader stops (we are great at pointing these out) at 1.1169 and 1.1182, the latter is the key to keeping the bid.

GBPUSD trading around 1.34 (next Amazing Trader target 1.3480) if it stays above 1.3375-80) but reverting to a lag after leading earlier.

Amazing Trader levels have been updated with current risks and targets.


Mtl JP  14:23:51 GMT - 09/06/2016  
sofar dlr is off about 0.5% against the eur and 1% against the yen
stocks behaving unusually for a change on bad news


GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  13:51:54 GMT - 09/06/2016  

1.


Tug-of-war day out of GBP crosses

EURGBP .8350 is the battle line with layers of support starting at .8344 to .8210 (.8344/.8297/.8254) to show the current risk if .8350 gets firmly broken.




Mtl JP  13:03:51 GMT - 09/06/2016  
gbpusd seems to struggle with 1.3350, making multiple top now


GVI Trading Room john bland  12:39:35 GMT - 09/06/2016  
DAX +41
DJ +17
SP +2

10-yr 1.594% -1.4bp

Markets setting up for Fed decision in two weeks time. ISM Service PMI due in just over an hour. This is a slow week for data.


Mtl JP  12:20:52 GMT - 09/06/2016  
gbpusd 1.3354
Pivot 1.3325 = current s/t bias uP
I suspect 1.3390-ish should be tuff to break North


GVI Trading Room john bland  08:53:18 GMT - 09/06/2016  

6-SEP Tuesday
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
09:00 EZ- GDP
13:45 US- Final SVC PMI
14:00 US- ISM PMI
7-SEP Wednesday
00:30 AU- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
8-SEP Thursday
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Crude
9-SEP Friday
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 CA- Employment


Trading Themes --
  • North American markets return today after Monday holidays, which marked for some the unofficial end of summer. The focus now is on how markets are setting up for the Fed meeting in just over two weeks time (September 21). Opinions are split on the chances on a Fed rate hike at that meeting. Fed Funds futures put the odds at about one in five for a rate hike.

  • Today sees the ISM Services PMI from the U.S. It is seen roughly flat at a solid 55.5 (consensus 55.3), after the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction in August. These data could influence the upcoming Fed policy decision.

  • Swiss CPI improved, but remains in contraction.

  • August U.S. Non-farm Payrolls grew by only 151K in the month, while revisions to the June and July data turned out to be a wash. The street had been expecting a gain of 180K in the month, but importantly, average hourly earning increased a scant 0.12% in the month and hours worked declined.

  • There was no smoking gun in the report that should force a rate hike on September 21. In fact this report, taken with the contraction in the ISM Manufacturing PMI should be a cause for caution at the Fed. It would be wiser for the central bank to wait for more data before raising rates. The last thing they should do now is compound their many blunders by trying to save face.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com







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