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GVI Trading Room john bland  20:02:58 GMT - 09/06/2016  

7-SEP Wednesday
00:30 AU- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
8-SEP Thursday
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Crude
9-SEP Friday
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 CA- Employment

Trading Themes --
  • North American markets returned Tuesday after their Monday holidays. Many were setting up for the Fed meeting in two weeks (September 21). Fed Funds futures early had placed the odds at one in five for a rate hike.

  • The U.S ISM Services PMI significantly missed expectations and further reduced the odds for a September 21 hike. Late in the day, odds on a rate hike had fallen to a scant 14% from 20% earlier. Furthermore, odds on ONE rate hike by yearend were down to a coin-toss after trading as high as 80% after Yellen's Jackson Hole speech.

  • Late last week, August U.S. Non-farm Payrolls grew by only 151K, while revisions to the June and July data turned out to be a wash. The street had been expecting a gain of 180K in the month, but importantly, average hourly earning increased a scant 0.12% in the month and hours worked declined.

  • It might be wiser now for the central bank to wait for more data before raising rates. The last thing they should do now is compound their many blunders by trying to save face.

  • John M. Bland, MBA

GVI Trading Room john bland  20:10:47 GMT - 09/06/2016  


Blue line (inverted) indicates the odds of a Fed rate hike by year end.

Market Sentiment Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are:
+51% from +69% late Friday.

Spot EURUSD: 1.1247
20-day avg: 1.1226
Pivot Point: 1.1220

Singapore PW  00:34:38 GMT - 09/07/2016  
Let's go BOJ ... buy in secret

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:48:04 GMT - 09/07/2016  

7-SEP Wednesday
00:30 AU- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
8-SEP Thursday
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Crude
9-SEP Friday
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 CA- Employment

Trading Themes --
  • German July industrial production unexpectedly fell -1.5% vs. expectations for a gain of 0.2% in the month. The data will keep pressure on the ECB for additional stimulus tomorrow. U.K. July Manufacturing data were weak.

  • Markets today are still digesting the recent poor run of data out of the U.S. The increasing view is that Fed policy is back on hold. This change in sentiment has seen the EURUSD marked higher to back above the 1.1200 line. One has to wonder if the U.S. economy would be able to sustain a stronger currency.

  • The latest blow to the U.S. was the ISM Services PMI, which significantly missed expectations and this further reduced the odds for a September 21 rate hike. Late in the day, odds on a rate hike had fallen to a scant 14%. Furthermore, odds on ONE rate hike by yearend are down to a coin-toss after trading as high as 80% after Yellen's Jackson Hole speech.

  • It might be wiser now for the central bank to wait for more data before raising rates. The last thing they should do now is compound their many blunders by trying to save face.

  • John M. Bland, MBA

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:07:51 GMT - 09/07/2016  
BoE Governor Mark Carney will testify to members of Parliament at 13:15 GMT on current BOE policy. Carney will be watched for clues on possible future actions.

singapore td  10:11:29 GMT - 09/07/2016  
cable has been up recently, so Carney will talk it down

singapore td  10:17:46 GMT - 09/07/2016  
sell audusd 0.7676, stop 0.7739

singapore td  10:24:21 GMT - 09/07/2016  
they may try to bring 1.3390-1.34 pre-Carney but no higher than 1.3410 and then bring it down again post-Carney

Kaunas DP  10:28:19 GMT - 09/07/2016  
no higher 1.3410, I bet 1k usd it will be >1.3410 pre carn

GVI Trading Room john bland  10:43:33 GMT - 09/07/2016  
Cautious Start--
DAX +38
DJ -2
SP -1

10-yr 1.536% -0.5bp

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  12:13:01 GMT - 09/07/2016  


EURUSD briefly through its overnight 1.1233 low and stops,. Amazing Trader shows a minor support from yesterday at 1.1225.

If you are looking for a source of EURUSD selling it appeared to come from EURGBP ahead of carney's testimony.

Mtl JP  12:22:26 GMT - 09/07/2016  
US stox looking slightly down

Mtl JP  12:25:31 GMT - 09/07/2016  
I am thinking audusd 0.768-ish is a sell
35-ish pips worth of s/l

dc CB  12:29:15 GMT - 09/07/2016  
Apple's San Fran new product day.
iPhone 7???

only real mkmover today

Livingston nh  12:29:36 GMT - 09/07/2016  
STOX yesterday still w/ lo volume and late day Mutual fund buy - bonds AND STOX both rallied (hmm?) // Chart shows SPX floating on an island - Gaps below

Mtl JP  12:30:24 GMT - 09/07/2016  
50 day 103.05
usdyen 101.55
20 day 101.52
having fun boyz n gilz ?

dc CB  12:49:11 GMT - 09/07/2016  
zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 14m14 minutes ago

10Y -2.60% in repo

Livingston nh  12:56:17 GMT - 09/07/2016  
CB - have you seen anything about a screwed-up auction schedule?

Mtl JP  12:57:28 GMT - 09/07/2016  
usdcad 1.2830
planning on BoD 20-25pip dips if seen

london red  13:03:38 GMT - 09/07/2016  
loonie daily straddle just 40 pips. mkt not expecting much. so room for a good move if something said later.
carney to tsc up soon 15 past the hour. carney doesnt make an issue of sterling rate, but mkt will look for guidance on qe/further cut. likely to be in wait and see mode.

dc CB  13:07:02 GMT - 09/07/2016  
annc this thurs as usual for the ammt.

odd that the 3 and 10 go off Mon
the 30 Tues.


GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  13:07:54 GMT - 09/07/2016  


Bi-polar trading

GBPUSD goes from bid to offered, again crosses driving the flows.

GBPJPY seemed to be the driver with to a lesser extent EURGBP as well.

Likely some position adjustments ahead of Carney.

Mtl JP  13:14:57 GMT - 09/07/2016  
rockstar of central banking Carney scheduled to testimoan at 13:15

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:17:06 GMT - 09/07/2016  
Fed Funds futures odds are ~10% for a September hike. I put December odds for one hike at 48.8%.

Why does this matter? Its not about a 25bp or 50bp hikes in interest rates. Its all about how the Fed is reading the economy. We all know they WANT the economy to improve, but despite what may be happening in SF Fed President William's world, it is simply not happening in ours.

london red  13:21:11 GMT - 09/07/2016  
ouch harsh opening words against carney

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  13:42:44 GMT - 09/07/2016  


EURUSD stops today:

1.1263 (buy stops only went 2 pips)

1.1233 (sell stops only went 4 pips)

1.1251 (buy stops only went 2 pips)

What does this suggest? Not much follow through so far as price action seems driven more by crosses, e.g. EURGBP than vs. the USD

Mtl JP  13:52:16 GMT - 09/07/2016  
at top of the hour another A risk rated calendar event:
maybe BoC gang will provide an opportunity to skin some posi-pips

Mtl JP  13:56:51 GMT - 09/07/2016  
Fed gang non-voting hawk Lacker and voting hawk George yakkers at top of the hour should not garner an oversized (i.e more than 50 pips) player-reaction effect

SaaR KaL  13:56:51 GMT - 09/07/2016  
USDCAD Ranges w/ me
1.3114 1.2788
1.3234 1.2667

Livingston nh  14:00:28 GMT - 09/07/2016  
Hope Sueprize CAD

Mtl JP  14:05:21 GMT - 09/07/2016  
nh just like rockstar carney patronizingly pontificates that "Sometimes useful to let FX market know there is a two-way risk to avoid "piling on" " these cretins need to learn that they should serve a useful purpose to FX players as well, I fully expect u skinned some +pips off the BoC gang

Livingston nh  14:14:14 GMT - 09/07/2016  
JP - NO SALE on a much reduced CAD position - was looking to add on an upmove // It appears that many CBs are stepping back (e.g., Riksbank, BoC) in the effort to race to the bottom -- perhaps awaiting the oft promised Fed move

EU markets "hoping" for a Draghi tomorrow -- see if he steps back as well

Mtl JP  14:40:22 GMT - 09/07/2016  
nh for your entertainment: "While Canada's economy shrank in the second quarter, the Bank still projects a substantial rebound in the second half of this year,"

the bank... an inert object whose hallways are populated by artificial intelligence units.

Maybe a useful note for future trade opps is to remember that canadian mortgage rates are really set in NY (keep an eye on the us-can 10-yr spread)

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  14:47:11 GMT - 09/07/2016  


Good day for the Amazing Trader

This is just a hit and run contra strategy but as I noted, selling into a EURUSD pop when it runs stops above HOD continues to work.

This time it was more than a few pips extension and came within a whisker of the 61.8% retracement at 1.1273

Mtl JP  14:49:17 GMT - 09/07/2016  
usdyen's 20dma helding support
audusd holding resistance
usdcad held off 1.2780
bottom line: usd s got some mojo back

Mtl JP  16:12:54 GMT - 09/07/2016  
appreciate odss and views on gbpusd 1.33

LONDON SFH  16:19:21 GMT - 09/07/2016  
1.3300 Looks like it may be a push a bit too far-and good level to long short term in my opinion...

Livingston nh  16:21:23 GMT - 09/07/2016  
JP - on the 4 hr chart Cable just broke below 21 ma - 1.33 in view s/t (MACD is also rolled over)

daily 55 ema was support but price has nicked below

Mtl JP  17:16:16 GMT - 09/07/2016  

Entry: Target: Stop:
nh 14:14 re NO SALE on a much reduced CAD position
trade suggestion:
BoD down to 1.2860-ish
first tp 1.2950

Mtl JP  17:49:11 GMT - 09/07/2016  
JP 12:25 re short aud: tighten sl and 1rst trgt low 76

Mtl JP  20:08:25 GMT - 09/07/2016  
thanks Dennis

Oilís not going above $55 for years, and hereís why: Gartman

Mtl JP  23:38:11 GMT - 09/07/2016  
audusd robot set to short only

Mtl JP  23:46:29 GMT - 09/07/2016  
Japan acct balance due out at same time as GDP could be bigger market whip
in less than 5 minutes

Mtl JP  23:56:34 GMT - 09/07/2016  
dlryen continues to zzzzzz

next A- risk to my account according to gv calendar:
08/09/16 1:30 A AU Trade A$bln -2.75 -3.2
I dont think A - worth but if it should fill some +pips into my account , I wont complain

Mtl JP  00:22:12 GMT - 09/08/2016  
short audusd again here,
tight sl

Bali Sja  02:11:12 GMT - 09/08/2016  
Sell big time gbpusd 1.3350 tsrget 1.3270. Stop 1.3413

Mtl JP  02:16:25 GMT - 09/08/2016  
sell big time = ___ (25+ lots ?)

HK [email protected]  03:11:22 GMT - 09/08/2016  

Maybe makes more sense to sell GBP/JPY

Provo John  04:01:43 GMT - 09/08/2016  
Bali Sja 02:11 GMT 09/08/2016

risking 63 pips for a 80 pip gain does not make sense.

bali sja  04:14:11 GMT - 09/08/2016  
Provo john, you do not have to agree with my trade, feel free to adjust accordingly
the idea is to sell gbp, though it is not ideal winning ratio for some, it is still above 50:50 ratio and on some days you just cannot have that perfect 90:10 ratio

bali sja  04:15:55 GMT - 09/08/2016  
Provo John, perhaps you tell me your plan then that makes sense?

Provo John  04:42:22 GMT - 09/08/2016  
At the moment I do not have one. I am waiting for the ECB dust to settle. My only reason for even saying anything is that risk management is THE most important part of any trade. Personally, unless I can get at least a 1:5 r/r I don't trade ( which is a trade ). I am not criticizing your trade just pointing out to others the risk vs reward ( particularly for anyone new ).

bali sja  04:53:58 GMT - 09/08/2016  
sure, we are not living in ideal world though and timing etc can effect the ideal r/r, unless one is sitting in front of the screen 24 hours

I do hope you also point to others about the danger of trading someone else's ideas that do not include stop loss, that double and triple up positions, plenty of those here...

Provo John  05:03:57 GMT - 09/08/2016  
With regards to "the danger of trading someone else's ideas that do not include stop loss, that double and triple up positions..." all to true.

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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