Gary Gensler will be the Treas Secy under Clinton.
Mtl JP 20:04:05 GMT - 09/12/2016
to consider Brainard as Treasury Secretary and as a trade for the USD clinton will have first to make it into the w/house, she a hillary's girl if I am not mistaken
-
I am leaning to usdyen to low 101.2x; keeping an eye on the 20day ma
Livingston nh 20:03:57 GMT - 09/12/2016
JP - "moral suasion" is Janet's vote -- she might have more effect if Brainard got to visit Nome as Fed representative in January for the Chamber of Commerce breakfast induction of New Officers and Fargo for Valentine's Day and the end of month audit reviews for some local banks
Mtl JP 19:48:58 GMT - 09/12/2016
doesn't janet's "vote" outweigh all other votes combined ?
what about diamon's executive memo (JP 18:34) ?
Livingston nh 19:46:33 GMT - 09/12/2016
JP - you correctly tipped Bernanke as Fed Head - as a trade for the USD consider Brainard as Treasury Secretary -- Cable to 2.50 and yen to 50, eh
Livingston nh 19:31:35 GMT - 09/12/2016
JP - Members vote - so opinion counts // thus, if Members are HAWKS rates will rise more often than be cut - but today ONE Dove trumps 3 Chicken Hawks
Mtl JP 19:14:13 GMT - 09/12/2016
nh replay 4 me plz again why does it matter if someone is a FOMC voter or not - i.e what is the tradeable part of that attribute ? tia
Mtl JP 18:36:14 GMT - 09/12/2016
SFH 18:34 gold says lael has chicken brain
LONDON SFH 18:34:51 GMT - 09/12/2016
jp-with respect -what does gold say?
Mtl JP 18:32:06 GMT - 09/12/2016
what janet thinks of players
Mtl JP 18:31:30 GMT - 09/12/2016
Gold says all you need to know what players think about what the yakkers try to communicate about prospect of rate hike
LONDON SFH 18:30:01 GMT - 09/12/2016
JP-I take it you would rather be stuck with Yelllen as a bedfellow in every sense!
Mtl JP 18:26:29 GMT - 09/12/2016
SFH 17:49 when it comes to a woman's opinion about rate hike , between lael and janet I think janet's carries more weight
LONDON SFH 17:49:15 GMT - 09/12/2016
Mtl JP 17:20 GMT 09/12/2016
I would rather be stuck on a dessert island with her rather than Yellen!
LONDON SFH 17:30:09 GMT - 09/12/2016
great two way action on dow...
Mtl JP 17:20:23 GMT - 09/12/2016
the harvard PhD sounds like a scared chicken
Livingston nh 17:15:23 GMT - 09/12/2016
I think
2.77 was b to c on 3 yr // 2.35 was 10 yr b to c
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:04:45 GMT - 09/12/2016
10-yr 1.699%
bid to cover 2.77 vs 2.98
weak
dc CB 15:47:46 GMT - 09/12/2016
Mtl JP 14:49
Failure to Delivers. aka Default, by the borrower, who used the Note as collateral and now can't come with it when it's due.
Mtl JP 15:04:48 GMT - 09/12/2016
1.1214 been tested now 3rd time, just shy of the 100 day 1.1209
Mtl JP 14:49:07 GMT - 09/12/2016
dc CB re "If and when shortages extend well beyond the settlement date, that is when it will be time for Yellen to panic."
in what form(at) could a yellen panic be expected to manifest itself ?
dc CB 14:41:34 GMT - 09/12/2016
Stone McCarthy reports this morning, the 10-year note is trading at -270 basis points this morning, after trading at -270 basis points at the end of last week. Though issues often trade special, there is a limit to how low they can trade. Or rather, there should be.
oh dang... Both the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.27% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.17% plunged below their 50-day moving averages, precipitated by a rout in equities and government bonds, like the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.47% on intensifying fears that the Federal Reserve could finally pull the trigger on raising rates after a nearly 10-month hiatus.
nh gap on my chart (e-mini)
-
I like 10-yr yield uP and market odds of a yellen hike this year
keeping eurdle down bias sofar
Livingston nh 13:55:56 GMT - 09/12/2016
JP - GAP @ 2100 spx
dc CB 13:55:31 GMT - 09/12/2016
When combining the new health concerns with all of the other "plumes of smoke" surrounding Hillary including questions over the Clinton Foundation, lost emails, Benghazi, etc, Fleischer thinks "politically [this] is a deadly combination."
Meanwhile the liberal machine is mounting a defense in the only way it knows how, by labeling anyone who might question Hillary's health as a sexist.
Trump is subtly forcing the health issue by vowing to release the results of a detailed medical physical conducted last week.
IMO it is the general uncertainty about the election -- known (Clinton) vs different (Trump) - age of both, cross party issues -- this is gonna be "interesting"
LONDON SFH 13:54:54 GMT - 09/12/2016
Mtl JP 13:43 GMT 09/12/2016
Lying affect Wall Street? Since when??
Mtl JP 13:51:27 GMT - 09/12/2016
SnP 500 needs to hold 2120
Mtl JP 13:43:22 GMT - 09/12/2016
do u think clinton's lies and health r now an nega-issue for wallstreet ?
Livingston nh 13:38:17 GMT - 09/12/2016
STOX internals on Friday were as bad as I've seen them - more than the Fed was at work - a combination of worries from different sectors and players pushed everybody to the door at once // any bounce will meet sellers
Mtl JP 13:30:24 GMT - 09/12/2016
gv chartpoint: 100 day 1.1209
I like it
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:28:12 GMT - 09/12/2016
If the September 21 FOMC is the focus, odds on a rate hike, basis October (clean month) futures, are now 18%. These odds are very low. Brainard speaks after the European close.
September 12 Speech - Governor Lael Brainard
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Implications
At the Chicago Council on Global Affairs: Global Economic Series, Chicago, Illinois 1:15 p.m. ET
We will see if these odds change afterwards. We are currently experiencing a minor "taper tantrum".
Livingston nh 13:20:34 GMT - 09/12/2016
JM - a bounce maybe but then a rethink since she is out of sync w/ the Troika who want a "live" meeting
Mtl JP 13:18:51 GMT - 09/12/2016
nh hope u r getting rich off the cad$ s-line *-^
Mtl JP 13:17:04 GMT - 09/12/2016
voting dove brainard is scheduled for 1700gmt or 1 pm ET
some say 17:15 if it matters
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 12:46:58 GMT - 09/12/2016
EUR soft vs. GBP and JPy but up vs commodity currencies, and vs. this time last week remains up vs. USD
Stocks off lows as suggested but how they close is more important
Amazing Trader had a good run to downside earlier but now not chasing moves within the range.
dc CB 12:38:50 GMT - 09/12/2016
Wall Street money has too much in the tank to let the market crash and really kill Hillary's chances.
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:03:41 GMT - 09/12/2016
DAX -193
DJ -91
SP-7
10-yr 1.684% +1.2
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:53:59 GMT - 09/12/2016
Risk-Off
DAX -202
DJ -97
SP -12.5
10-yr 1.684% +1.2
fwiw U.S. equities rarely follow the lead of overseas trading.
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:00:00 GMT - 09/12/2016
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 12-SEP Monday
No major Data 13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey 14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude 15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production 16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
Trading Themes--
Concern that the Fed could be ready to lead central banks into a period of "policy normalization" has seen equity prices falling and bond yields rising to start the new week. Predictions about the timing and magnitude of moves to less accomodative policies is something that the Fed will have to start to manage.
Markets got unsettled Thursday by the non-decision decision by the ECB last Thursday. The best explanation I have heard about the ECB is that President Draghi was keeping policy on hold until he saw what the Fed was going to do on September 21. Furthermore, Fed speakers sent hawkish signals early on Friday. Later in the day Governor Tarullo sent a more dovish signal. It is long past due for the U.S. central bank to get its act together and send consistent messages to the markets or just keep quiet.
The economic calendar is quiet on Monday. There will ba a lot to focus on in the rest of the week, including central bank decisions by Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Thursday sees a slew of data from the U.S. and abroad to include the latest U.S. Retail Sales data.
Word Chinese forex reserves have reached their lowest level since 2012 has been raising eyebrows in recent days. Large scale intervention and management of its reserve basket can have significant impacts elsewhere.
As for the Fed, Fed Funds futures odds for a September 21 rate hike closed the week at one in five. The chances for one rate hike by the end of the year are only 64%, despite Chair Yellen's signal at Jackson Hole that it is time for a rate increase
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:12:54 GMT - 09/11/2016
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 12-SEP Monday
No major Data 13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey 14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude 15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production 16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
Trading Themes--
Markets got unsettled Thursday by the non-decision decision by the ECB last Thursday. The best explanation I have heard about the ECB is that President Draghi was keeping policy on hold until he saw what the Fed was going to do on September 21. Furthermore, Fed speakers sent hawkish signals early on Friday. Later in the day Gopvernor Tarullo sent a more dovish signal. It is long past due for the U.S. central bank to get its act together and send consistent messages to the markets or just keep quiet.
The economic calendar is quiet on Monday. There will ba a lot to focus on in the rest of the week, including central bank decisions by Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Thursday sees a slew of data from the U.S. and abroad to include the latest U.S. Retail Sales data.
Word Chinese forex reserves have reached their lowest level since 2012 has been raising eyebrows in recent days. Large scale intervention and management of its reserve basket can have significant impacts elsewhere.
As for the Fed, Fed Funds futures odds for a September 21 rate hike closed the week at one in five. The chances for one rate hike by the end of the year are only 64%, despite Chair Yellen's signal at Jackson Hole that it is time for a rate increase
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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