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dc CB  20:53:10 GMT - 09/12/2016  
Gary Gensler will be the Treas Secy under Clinton.


Mtl JP  20:04:05 GMT - 09/12/2016  
to consider Brainard as Treasury Secretary and as a trade for the USD clinton will have first to make it into the w/house, she a hillary's girl if I am not mistaken
-
I am leaning to usdyen to low 101.2x; keeping an eye on the 20day ma


Livingston nh  20:03:57 GMT - 09/12/2016  
JP - "moral suasion" is Janet's vote -- she might have more effect if Brainard got to visit Nome as Fed representative in January for the Chamber of Commerce breakfast induction of New Officers and Fargo for Valentine's Day and the end of month audit reviews for some local banks


Mtl JP  19:48:58 GMT - 09/12/2016  
doesn't janet's "vote" outweigh all other votes combined ?
what about diamon's executive memo (JP 18:34) ?



Livingston nh  19:46:33 GMT - 09/12/2016  
JP - you correctly tipped Bernanke as Fed Head - as a trade for the USD consider Brainard as Treasury Secretary -- Cable to 2.50 and yen to 50, eh


Livingston nh  19:31:35 GMT - 09/12/2016  
JP - Members vote - so opinion counts // thus, if Members are HAWKS rates will rise more often than be cut - but today ONE Dove trumps 3 Chicken Hawks


Mtl JP  19:14:13 GMT - 09/12/2016  
nh replay 4 me plz again why does it matter if someone is a FOMC voter or not - i.e what is the tradeable part of that attribute ? tia


Mtl JP  18:36:14 GMT - 09/12/2016  
SFH 18:34 gold says lael has chicken brain


LONDON SFH  18:34:51 GMT - 09/12/2016  
jp-with respect -what does gold say?


Mtl JP  18:32:06 GMT - 09/12/2016  
 
what janet thinks of players


Mtl JP  18:31:30 GMT - 09/12/2016  
 
Gold says all you need to know what players think about what the yakkers try to communicate about prospect of rate hike


LONDON SFH  18:30:01 GMT - 09/12/2016  
JP-I take it you would rather be stuck with Yelllen as a bedfellow in every sense!


Mtl JP  18:26:29 GMT - 09/12/2016  
SFH 17:49 when it comes to a woman's opinion about rate hike , between lael and janet I think janet's carries more weight


LONDON SFH  17:49:15 GMT - 09/12/2016  
Mtl JP 17:20 GMT 09/12/2016

I would rather be stuck on a dessert island with her rather than Yellen!


LONDON SFH  17:30:09 GMT - 09/12/2016  
great two way action on dow...


Mtl JP  17:20:23 GMT - 09/12/2016  
the harvard PhD sounds like a scared chicken


Livingston nh  17:15:23 GMT - 09/12/2016  
I think
2.77 was b to c on 3 yr // 2.35 was 10 yr b to c


GVI Trading Room john bland  17:04:45 GMT - 09/12/2016  
10-yr 1.699%
bid to cover 2.77 vs 2.98

weak


dc CB  15:47:46 GMT - 09/12/2016  
Mtl JP 14:49
Failure to Delivers. aka Default, by the borrower, who used the Note as collateral and now can't come with it when it's due.




Mtl JP  15:04:48 GMT - 09/12/2016  
1.1214 been tested now 3rd time, just shy of the 100 day 1.1209


Mtl JP  14:49:07 GMT - 09/12/2016  
dc CB re "If and when shortages extend well beyond the settlement date, that is when it will be time for Yellen to panic."
in what form(at) could a yellen panic be expected to manifest itself ?


dc CB  14:41:34 GMT - 09/12/2016  
Stone McCarthy reports this morning, the 10-year note is trading at -270 basis points this morning, after trading at -270 basis points at the end of last week. Though issues often trade special, there is a limit to how low they can trade. Or rather, there should be.

10 Year Repo "Failing" Again



Mtl JP  14:29:48 GMT - 09/12/2016  
"taper tantrum" = still btfd

TRUMP: Janet Yellen should be ‘ashamed’ of what she’s doing to the country



Mtl JP  14:21:09 GMT - 09/12/2016  
oh dang... Both the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.27% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.17% plunged below their 50-day moving averages, precipitated by a rout in equities and government bonds, like the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.47% on intensifying fears that the Federal Reserve could finally pull the trigger on raising rates after a nearly 10-month hiatus.

The stock-market rout just drove the S&P 500, Dow below a key level



Mtl JP  14:04:24 GMT - 09/12/2016  
 
nh gap on my chart (e-mini)
-
I like 10-yr yield uP and market odds of a yellen hike this year
keeping eurdle down bias sofar


Livingston nh  13:55:56 GMT - 09/12/2016  
JP - GAP @ 2100 spx


dc CB  13:55:31 GMT - 09/12/2016  
When combining the new health concerns with all of the other "plumes of smoke" surrounding Hillary including questions over the Clinton Foundation, lost emails, Benghazi, etc, Fleischer thinks "politically [this] is a deadly combination."

Meanwhile the liberal machine is mounting a defense in the only way it knows how, by labeling anyone who might question Hillary's health as a sexist.

Trump is subtly forcing the health issue by vowing to release the results of a detailed medical physical conducted last week.

911 and the Lost American Culture by globalintelhub - Sep 11, 2016 10:38 PM 911 was the paradigm game changer of our century. WeeKeND AT 9-11 by williambanzai7 - Sep 11, 2016 1:36 PM A BANZAI7 EXCLUSIVE Hillary Faces A "Political Crisis"



Livingston nh  13:54:55 GMT - 09/12/2016  
IMO it is the general uncertainty about the election -- known (Clinton) vs different (Trump) - age of both, cross party issues -- this is gonna be "interesting"


LONDON SFH  13:54:54 GMT - 09/12/2016  
Mtl JP 13:43 GMT 09/12/2016

Lying affect Wall Street? Since when??


Mtl JP  13:51:27 GMT - 09/12/2016  
SnP 500 needs to hold 2120


Mtl JP  13:43:22 GMT - 09/12/2016  
do u think clinton's lies and health r now an nega-issue for wallstreet ?


Livingston nh  13:38:17 GMT - 09/12/2016  
STOX internals on Friday were as bad as I've seen them - more than the Fed was at work - a combination of worries from different sectors and players pushed everybody to the door at once // any bounce will meet sellers


Mtl JP  13:30:24 GMT - 09/12/2016  
gv chartpoint: 100 day 1.1209
I like it


GVI Trading Room john bland  13:28:12 GMT - 09/12/2016  
If the September 21 FOMC is the focus, odds on a rate hike, basis October (clean month) futures, are now 18%. These odds are very low. Brainard speaks after the European close.

September 12 Speech - Governor Lael Brainard
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Implications
At the Chicago Council on Global Affairs: Global Economic Series, Chicago, Illinois 1:15 p.m. ET


We will see if these odds change afterwards. We are currently experiencing a minor "taper tantrum".


Livingston nh  13:20:34 GMT - 09/12/2016  
JM - a bounce maybe but then a rethink since she is out of sync w/ the Troika who want a "live" meeting


Mtl JP  13:18:51 GMT - 09/12/2016  
nh hope u r getting rich off the cad$ s-line *-^


Mtl JP  13:17:04 GMT - 09/12/2016  
 
voting dove brainard is scheduled for 1700gmt or 1 pm ET
some say 17:15 if it matters


GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  12:46:58 GMT - 09/12/2016  

1.


EUR soft vs. GBP and JPy but up vs commodity currencies, and vs. this time last week remains up vs. USD

Stocks off lows as suggested but how they close is more important

Amazing Trader had a good run to downside earlier but now not chasing moves within the range.


dc CB  12:38:50 GMT - 09/12/2016  
Wall Street money has too much in the tank to let the market crash and really kill Hillary's chances.


GVI Trading Room john bland  12:03:41 GMT - 09/12/2016  
DAX -193
DJ -91
SP-7

10-yr 1.684% +1.2


GVI Trading Room john bland  09:53:59 GMT - 09/12/2016  
Risk-Off
DAX -202
DJ -97
SP -12.5

10-yr 1.684% +1.2
fwiw U.S. equities rarely follow the lead of overseas trading.


GVI Trading Room john bland  09:00:00 GMT - 09/12/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
12-SEP Monday
No major Data
13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production
16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey


Trading Themes--
  • Concern that the Fed could be ready to lead central banks into a period of "policy normalization" has seen equity prices falling and bond yields rising to start the new week. Predictions about the timing and magnitude of moves to less accomodative policies is something that the Fed will have to start to manage.

  • Markets got unsettled Thursday by the non-decision decision by the ECB last Thursday. The best explanation I have heard about the ECB is that President Draghi was keeping policy on hold until he saw what the Fed was going to do on September 21. Furthermore, Fed speakers sent hawkish signals early on Friday. Later in the day Governor Tarullo sent a more dovish signal. It is long past due for the U.S. central bank to get its act together and send consistent messages to the markets or just keep quiet.

  • The economic calendar is quiet on Monday. There will ba a lot to focus on in the rest of the week, including central bank decisions by Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Thursday sees a slew of data from the U.S. and abroad to include the latest U.S. Retail Sales data.

  • Word Chinese forex reserves have reached their lowest level since 2012 has been raising eyebrows in recent days. Large scale intervention and management of its reserve basket can have significant impacts elsewhere.

  • As for the Fed, Fed Funds futures odds for a September 21 rate hike closed the week at one in five. The chances for one rate hike by the end of the year are only 64%, despite Chair Yellen's signal at Jackson Hole that it is time for a rate increase

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off



GVI Trading Room john bland  21:22:50 GMT - 09/11/2016  
EURUSD 1.1231 +2
USDJPY 102.60 -8
GBPUSD 1.3261 -8


GVI Trading Room john bland  12:12:54 GMT - 09/11/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
12-SEP Monday
No major Data
13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production
16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey


Trading Themes--
  • Markets got unsettled Thursday by the non-decision decision by the ECB last Thursday. The best explanation I have heard about the ECB is that President Draghi was keeping policy on hold until he saw what the Fed was going to do on September 21. Furthermore, Fed speakers sent hawkish signals early on Friday. Later in the day Gopvernor Tarullo sent a more dovish signal. It is long past due for the U.S. central bank to get its act together and send consistent messages to the markets or just keep quiet.

  • The economic calendar is quiet on Monday. There will ba a lot to focus on in the rest of the week, including central bank decisions by Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Thursday sees a slew of data from the U.S. and abroad to include the latest U.S. Retail Sales data.

  • Word Chinese forex reserves have reached their lowest level since 2012 has been raising eyebrows in recent days. Large scale intervention and management of its reserve basket can have significant impacts elsewhere.

  • As for the Fed, Fed Funds futures odds for a September 21 rate hike closed the week at one in five. The chances for one rate hike by the end of the year are only 64%, despite Chair Yellen's signal at Jackson Hole that it is time for a rate increase

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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