Took profit for the weekend. Out of that 1.3224 portion at 1.3041. Let 1.3331 run for new lows. Just sell rallies for cable. Cannot go wrong. Easy peasy.
manila tom 04:29 GMT September 14, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:: Reply
thanks for the heads up sja, i was short cable also from 1.3331 after the 1.36 scream, looking to add short 1.3230, before setting stop for all at around 1.3290ish, target obviously open to new lows
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:16:15 GMT - 09/16/2016
To my eyes, the Baker Hughes Rig Count data were about neutral.
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:14:48 GMT - 09/16/2016
GVI Trading Room john bland 10:51:48 GMT - 09/16/2016
This excellent item pretty much summarizes the current thinking about the BOJ next Wednesday. It seems like Tokyo sometimes floats a number of trial balloons before key meetings. BOJ decision comes ahead of the Fed that day.
GVI Trading Room10:47:21 GMT - 09/16/2016
Japan Abe advisor Honda:
Deeper negative rates could pull down inflation expectations
- BOJ must not shrink QE
- Deeper negative rates would hit bank shares, drag down Tokyo stock markets
- BOJ could steepen yield curve by buying more short-, mid-term debt
- BOJ must not be perceived as preparing to taper QE
- Foreign bond purchases by BOJ an option
- Govt should compile new extra budget in January if needed
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Trading Room john bland 15:21:47 GMT - 09/15/2016
GDP estimate cut following lacklustre data today.
GVI Trading Room john bland 15:18:43 GMT - 09/15/2016
ATL Fed q3 GDP forecast cut to 3.00% vs 3.30% on Sept 9.
Source: TTN
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:30:14 GMT - 09/15/2016
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:40:54 GMT - 09/15/2016
dc I agree.
dc CB 13:39:33 GMT - 09/15/2016
john,
when you look, the 10Y yield is still very low. My opinion is that the elections are moving the yield higher because neither outcome inspires the trust --- to lend at 1.5% for 10Years.
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:33:05 GMT - 09/15/2016
I am trying to figure out the 10-yr. All I can figure is that some might starting to get out when the "getting is good"? Bond prices should not be falling on weak data.
dc CB 13:30:51 GMT - 09/15/2016
After CASH Treas Opened at 8:20AM, the Yield on the 10 dropped to 1.665 on the Data releases at 8:30. CASH hours 8:20- 3:00PM ET. The after hours futures are tiny.
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:26:39 GMT - 09/15/2016
U.S. 10-yr last 1.710% vs 1.712% much earlier today. prev close 1.696%.
dc CB 13:21:12 GMT - 09/15/2016
Yields fell with the 8:30 data, but now have erased all that and are rising. Change in the winds?, the yield birds flying north in to the winter months. contra seasonal
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:16:50 GMT - 09/15/2016
IP data as per the leak so no surprise
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:16:42 GMT - 09/15/2016
Leaked data correct. IP weaker than consensus. These data come from the Fed. The Fed usually does not "leak".
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:15:04 GMT - 09/15/2016
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization July 2016
Care!.....One wire reporting:
US AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.4%; CONSENSUS -0.2%
NB data due out 09:15EST
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:11:54 GMT - 09/15/2016
IP might have been released early. said to be -0.40%.
which would be weaker than expected.
Source: TTN
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:11:07 GMT - 09/15/2016
Trade the News reporting possible leak in IP data -- weaker than expected (note possible leak)
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:01:08 GMT - 09/15/2016
SFH- great minds!
LONDON SFH 12:56:16 GMT - 09/15/2016
Data seem to me to be universally weaker than forecasts so definitely on hold...no important data due before FOMC that can get them to move now I think
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:54:40 GMT - 09/15/2016
Going through the slew of data, most were lacklustre except for the strong Philly Fed. Confirming Fed should be on hold next week. Industrial production due in about 20 mins. IP seen weaker.
london red 12:38:46 GMT - 09/15/2016
euro. stops run abv yest high. data maybe not shocking but still might be enough in tank to squeeze a few more stops. in any case, if seen (i wouldnt buy here), fade approach to 113. stop can be tight abv 11306 or better abv 11330.
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:35:19 GMT - 09/15/2016
U.S. Current Account 1Q16 (USD bln)
ALERT
-119.9 vs. -119.8 exp. vs. -124.7 (-131.8) prev.
tom, you may want to consider 23.8 fib 13320, pretty magnetic IMO
i am not too excited, it is going nowhere
manila tom 04:36:12 GMT - 09/14/2016
monitoring usdcad also, looks like imminent major break to upside,
should give good directional play if happens (more more more..moaaarr) pretty good for usd so far
manila tom 04:33:06 GMT - 09/14/2016
re usdjpy today all good buy down to 102.20-50, stop 101.67, target 104.70 and beyond by end of the week
manila tom 04:29:50 GMT - 09/14/2016
thanks for the heads up sja, i was short cable also from 1.3331 after the 1.36 scream, looking to add short 1.3230, before setting stop for all at around 1.3290ish, target obviously open to new lows
Bali Sja 02:33:39 GMT - 09/14/2016
JP, i agree. Above 102.50 targetting 103.70 and 104.50.
As for cable we have seen the top 1.34 now heading towards 1.20. Still not too late to enter short. Will not go beyond 1.3240 today sell near there if seen.
Mtl JP 02:01:45 GMT - 09/14/2016
usdyen gv chart points - using history's numbers to help sinners make money tomorrow :
Res 3 104.48
Res 2 103.61
Res 1 103.16
Pivot 102.29
ps - as an old gv poster used to remind: plz mind your risk
Mtl JP 01:32:29 GMT - 09/14/2016
dlryen 103
ding ding
Mtl JP 00:30:25 GMT - 09/14/2016
players reacting to numbnut's claim that one his arrows has skewered deflation. probably trying to hint at more and deeper nega-rates
Mtl JP 00:10:56 GMT - 09/14/2016
numbnuts Abe blurting out something about economy and deflation
plYERS slow to take him seriously sofar
I have my robot watch 103 on top and 101.20 at bottom
is "13/09/16 17:00 A UST TRY 30-yr" a typo ?
presenting an "A" risk ?
Mtl JP 14:30:13 GMT - 09/13/2016
SFH as traders our job is not to analyse but to react to and to profit from opportunities. but if u need to know: fiat money, politicians' promises and govt' deficits to finance the dreams is the liberal way.
LONDON SFH 14:22:23 GMT - 09/13/2016
It has been a long time since anything remotely useful has come out of a G-20 / IMF / OECD statment... Wonder why he chose to listen to that one
Mtl JP 14:15:02 GMT - 09/13/2016
some time ago the G-20 / IMF / OECD and Co issued an edict ordering fin mins to pick-up where citizens are failing: load up on debt. (i.e. the "growth plan")
Just in is not only full compliance, he is exceeding it. Hence Christine's accolades for the one with pretty hair and socks.
LONDON SFH 14:06:56 GMT - 09/13/2016
JP
so he is working on a growth plan? Where have we heard this before....and did that work??
Their economy has done so well they deported the Central Bk Governor to the UK so he could go there and screw up things too
Livingston nh 14:05:06 GMT - 09/13/2016
JP - Blame doesn't require acceptance - it's like driving behind an open manure truck - only a little of the total needs to stick
Mtl JP 14:02:28 GMT - 09/13/2016
“I hope that many countries follow Prime Minister Trudeau’s global leadership. The more countries adopt it, the greater the mutual benefit for growth.”
Lagarde will meet Tuesday afternoon with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Ottawa, with a press conference to follow.
woopeeee. time to start to think about exploiting new trade opportunities off these cretins
Mtl JP 13:49:50 GMT - 09/13/2016
laying it "at yellen's feet"
-
here is Lagarde .."growing inequality in wealth, income, and opportunity in many countries has added to a groundswell of discontent, especially in the industrialized world—a growing sense among some citizens that they “lack control,” that the system is somehow against them"
laying blame anywhere/everywhere but ... at the current and recent past policymakers.
Nh and JP, well done on usdcad BOD trade. Go usd!
Cable will need a miracle to go above 1.3240.
Mtl JP 13:16:51 GMT - 09/13/2016
nh 11:44 "when does the silliness end" ?
when janet and her crew of 2% target-ers and low interest rate as stimulus peddlers somehow get run out of town
Livingston nh 13:13:52 GMT - 09/13/2016
JP -- yes faith restored USD/CAD = more more more
dc CB 13:04:23 GMT - 09/13/2016
zerohedge @zerohedge 5m5 minutes ago
Super fails: 10Y traded at -3.50% this morning, most special since 2009, according to Stone & McCarthy
Mtl JP 12:54:00 GMT - 09/13/2016
1.1237
Pivot 1.1237
10 day 1.1209
-
I m keeping a down bias;
s/t trgt 1.1150 and lower
Mtl JP 12:41:38 GMT - 09/13/2016
nh 10:59 = that is my wet FX dream !
-
in the meantime .... usdcad is almost euphoric; 1.32/1.3250 on radar
LONDON SFH 11:52:38 GMT - 09/13/2016
When idiot CBks stop buying bonds and let long rates find their equilibrium based on on inflation expectations...
Livingston nh 11:44:41 GMT - 09/13/2016
SFH - markets need to adjust and will -- sometimes painful // the US yield curve is flatter than last year - the 30 yr was about 3% and now its 2 3/8% so there is a cushion -- when does the silliness end?
LONDON SFH 11:31:49 GMT - 09/13/2016
The problem with the Fed selling as well as the MOF increasing long issuance could be the snowball effect...deleveraging across the board and those who need duration, such as PFs and Ins cos would sell what they have and sit back and allow the carnage to unfold before buying
Livingston nh 11:19:40 GMT - 09/13/2016
SFH - based on the current levels it appears the market can take the long (over 10 yrs) Treasury holdings, ~630 bio as a first step -- higher rates would put more money into the economy w/ little damage as interest paid goes to economy rather than Fed coffers thence back to government
LONDON SFH 11:02:17 GMT - 09/13/2016
Who will buy them?
Livingston nh 10:59:14 GMT - 09/13/2016
SFH -I hope so - if it works maybe the Fed will release the Treasury Trillions into the market -
singapore td 10:55:32 GMT - 09/13/2016
if below 101.75 printed first then forget about it
LONDON SFH 10:54:31 GMT - 09/13/2016
nh
That is what they want to achieve really.....it is bond bearish globally....especially if you consider the BOJ is seen as a bit of a lead for the ECB in their QE moves
singapore td 10:53:35 GMT - 09/13/2016
i think 102.50 will be broken soon
Livingston nh 10:52:14 GMT - 09/13/2016
If long rates rise Japanese yield seekers will stay home - Treasurys lose the edge especially if yen strengthens
LONDON SFH 10:48:07 GMT - 09/13/2016
singapore td 10:46 GMT 09/13/2016
Initially that was the trade..I faded and sold at 102.30
singapore td 10:46:06 GMT - 09/13/2016
so buy usd?
LONDON SFH 10:45:32 GMT - 09/13/2016
Jp
To insurance cos and whoever wants some yield..It is the Japanese trying to reverse operation twist
bali sja 10:44:17 GMT - 09/13/2016
they are just concerned about propping up usdjpy
no more under 100
BTFD for stocks and indices
Mtl JP 10:42:50 GMT - 09/13/2016
to whom ?
LONDON SFH 10:39:37 GMT - 09/13/2016
*JAPAN MOF APPROVES INCREASE IN SALE OF 40-YR JGBS: NIKKE
LONDON SFH 09:48:57 GMT - 09/13/2016
Livingston nh 09:33 GMT 09/13/2016
Morng nh
You can lay what you like at Yellen's feet...she won't take the blame for it..
re Kuroda..
The comments from the BOJ earlier were saying they were mulling over changes but details were pretty scarce. Recent discussions have centred around them allowing long rates to rise and the curve to steepen and this is what is really a worry for the bond mkts. Makes the last 2 day reboound in Europe and US somewhat fragile
Livingston nh 09:33:43 GMT - 09/13/2016
Yellen criticism starting to go mainstream and Main Street - she needs to understand she's not the Chair of a small college Econ Department so she needs to act like the Head of a Powerful Federal Agency or Congressional Committee and rein in the loose cannons // But it seems there is no Party Line because there is no PLAN only day to day data points
Market disruptions are now going to be laid at her feet
___
Kuroda to make changes in BoJ policy?
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:11:32 GMT - 09/13/2016
U.K. inflation data for August were generally softer than expected and weighed slightly on the GBP. The German ZEW Survey for August fell short of market expectations. There will ba a lot to focus on in the rest of the week, including central bank decisions by Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Thursday sees a slew of data from the U.S. and abroad to include the latest U.S. Retail Sales data.
Fed Governor Brainard was dovish in her comments Monday. She was the last Fed official to comment ahead of the quiet period heading into the Fed policy decusion in just over one week's time. Many had been hoping for a definitive view today, but she just added to the uncertainty.
Concern that the Fed could be ready to lead central banks into a period of "policy normalization" had seen equity prices falling and bond yields rising to start the new week. Predictions about the timing and magnitude of moves to less accomodative policies is something that the Fed will have to start to manage.
Fed Funds futures odds for a September 21 rate hike closed Monday at 12% after they closed last week at 20%. The chances for one rate hike by the end of the year are 59%, despite Chair Yellen's signal at Jackson Hole that it is time for a rate increase.
Brainard QE and low rates need more time . 8 years of surrealistic low interest rates and QE did nothing for the US economy . It just made Wallstreet ,Silicon Valley and ex FED officials who joined hedge funds SUPERRICH .
Livingston nh 17:43:21 GMT - 09/12/2016
John - it appears that the Good Ship SS FED is rudderless, w/o navigational charts and a crew that has been into the RUM
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:38:43 GMT - 09/12/2016
Kashkari sounding dovish
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:20:08 GMT - 09/12/2016
Brainard dovish.
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:19:39 GMT - 09/12/2016
Fed Brainard
-- urges continued prudence in removing accommodation
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