The economic calendar starts to pick up Tuesday with the German ZEW Survey and UK CPI data due. There will ba a lot to focus on in the rest of the week, including central bank decisions by Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Thursday sees a slew of data from the U.S. and abroad to include the latest U.S. Retail Sales data.
Fed Governor Brainard was dovish in her comments Monday. She was the last Fed official to comment ahead of the quiet period heading into the Fed policy decusion in just over one week's time. Many had been hoping for a definitive view today, but she just added to the uncertainty.
Concern that the Fed could be ready to lead central banks into a period of "policy normalization" had seen equity prices falling and bond yields rising to start the new week. Predictions about the timing and magnitude of moves to less accomodative policies is something that the Fed will have to start to manage.
Markets got unsettled Thursday by the non-decision decision by the ECB last Thursday. The best explanation I have heard about the ECB is that President Draghi was keeping policy on hold until he saw what the Fed was going to do on September 21. Furthermore, Fed speakers sent hawkish signals early on Friday. It is long past due for the U.S. central bank to get its act together and send consistent messages to the markets or just keep quiet.
As for the Fed, Fed Funds futures odds for a September 21 rate hike closed the day at 12% after they closed last week at 20%. The chances for one rate hike by the end of the year are only 59%, despite Chair Yellen's signal at Jackson Hole that it is time for a rate increase.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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