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GVI Trading Room john bland  20:16:59 GMT - 09/12/2016  

13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production
16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

Trading Themes--
  • The economic calendar starts to pick up Tuesday with the German ZEW Survey and UK CPI data due. There will ba a lot to focus on in the rest of the week, including central bank decisions by Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Thursday sees a slew of data from the U.S. and abroad to include the latest U.S. Retail Sales data.

  • Fed Governor Brainard was dovish in her comments Monday. She was the last Fed official to comment ahead of the quiet period heading into the Fed policy decusion in just over one week's time. Many had been hoping for a definitive view today, but she just added to the uncertainty.

  • Concern that the Fed could be ready to lead central banks into a period of "policy normalization" had seen equity prices falling and bond yields rising to start the new week. Predictions about the timing and magnitude of moves to less accomodative policies is something that the Fed will have to start to manage.

  • Markets got unsettled Thursday by the non-decision decision by the ECB last Thursday. The best explanation I have heard about the ECB is that President Draghi was keeping policy on hold until he saw what the Fed was going to do on September 21. Furthermore, Fed speakers sent hawkish signals early on Friday. It is long past due for the U.S. central bank to get its act together and send consistent messages to the markets or just keep quiet.

  • As for the Fed, Fed Funds futures odds for a September 21 rate hike closed the day at 12% after they closed last week at 20%. The chances for one rate hike by the end of the year are only 59%, despite Chair Yellen's signal at Jackson Hole that it is time for a rate increase.

  • John M. Bland, MBA


GVI Trading Room john bland  10:12:40 GMT - 09/13/2016  
Risk-Off in U.S. equity futures. DAX catch-up?
DAX +38
DJ -111
SP -13

10-yr 1.647% -2.3bp Brainard effect?

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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