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dc CB  20:53:08 GMT - 09/23/2016  
But the timing of the president’s veto is designed to erode congressional support for the bill and put off a politically damaging override vote until after the November elections. Obama waited until the very end of the 10-day period he had to issue a veto, hoping to buy time to lobby members of Congress against the measure.

More details:

White House officials also hope congressional leaders will leave Washington to hit the campaign trail before trying for an override, kicking a vote to the lame-duck session after the election.

Siding With Saudi Arabia, Obama Vetoes Sept 11 Bill Passed Unanimously In Congress

dc CB  20:28:02 GMT - 09/23/2016  

Dillon AL  18:03:20 GMT - 09/23/2016  
If the return on productive capital is too low, what happens to the rate of interest or savings will change nothing. This is the current status quo. It matters not what the natural rate is when profitability on traditional investment is currently such that the growth in the economy is pedestrian. In essence what we are talking about is velocity of which there is precious little in a deflationary world.
Until CBs start to understand that the Bernanke comparison to the 1930s is incorrect and that the better reference is Tulip-mania and the South Sea Bubble then we cannot come out from under the economic cloud and we will continue with mispricing of all asset classes

dc CB  17:46:47 GMT - 09/23/2016  
Crude collapses as the latest fanatasy about caps and cutbacks vaporizes.

GVI Trading Room john bland  17:04:09 GMT - 09/23/2016  
Rig Counts continue to rise.

GVI Trading Room john bland  17:03:36 GMT - 09/23/2016  
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 511 vs 506 (+5) prev
US (oil): 418 vs. 416 (+2) prev

Canada 138 vs. 132 (+6) prev

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Livingston nh  16:47:18 GMT - 09/23/2016  
Al - I think the yield curve is too flat (a result of the sudden interest in the Unknown wicksellian R) and businesses are not making capital investments with record amount of debt issuance undertaken // the interest portion of Personal Income has declined while the Savings rate is higher - the fiscal side has been very loose over the past few years w/ a record increase in the debt (lifestyle maintenance rather than investment) so the monetary side must be the culprit

Dillon AL  16:38:46 GMT - 09/23/2016  
jp just about every business is built around borrow short lend long. The issue is the majority of CFOs have no business being in the positions they are in.
Classic case which I am sure will go down in teaching annals was Vodafone getting out of Verizon then transferring everything into Sterling at 1.57. Great trade not. They missed out on future value of Verizon and they lost out on FX benefit. The problem is that so many companies hedge far too late and too little. Their borrowing requirements are met when needed IE funded take-overs. In a positive sloping yield curve referred to as a normal curve there is every reason to borrow short and lend long so long as there is plenty of liquidity available which frequently is determined on the basis of credit quality

Mtl JP  16:28:57 GMT - 09/23/2016  
AL 16:18 can u name some businesses that make long-term plant and equipment - not stock buybacks - investment decisions based on short/term 0% overnite rates ?

Dillon AL  16:18:04 GMT - 09/23/2016  
wanted to raise interest rates to help prolong the economic expansion

??? oh yes let me see raise the cost of capital and that aids business to thinks not....The last thing the economy needs is people like him in positions of trust and power and influence. Time for him to retire

Livingston nh  16:09:21 GMT - 09/23/2016  
AARGH - the daily data points are missed by the economists because the models have "normal" relationships built in and the Fed policies are in direct conflict with every stated GOAL that Yellen has expressed over the last two years (savings rate, productivity, inflation expectations and EMPLOYMENT)

Rosengren is no longer drinking the Kool-ade

Mtl JP  15:42:53 GMT - 09/23/2016  
it is raining yakkers today:

At noon NYT voter Harker and voting hawk Mester yak at some panel
Half hour later voter Kaplan yaks; apparently w/Q&A

Mtl JP  15:29:26 GMT - 09/23/2016  
soooo... NY Fed GDP forecast not promising and Rosengren says he wanted to raise interest rates to help prolong the economic expansion

GVI Trading Room john bland  15:20:25 GMT - 09/23/2016  
NY Fed GDP forecast not very promising, especially if the FOMC looks at it.

GVI Trading Room john bland  15:18:10 GMT - 09/23/2016  
NY Fed GDP forecast now 2.30% from 2.80% on sep 9.


GVI Trading Room john bland  15:16:48 GMT - 09/23/2016  
Keep in mind Kashkari has political ambitions. He is using his job at the Fed as a stepping stone.

GVI Trading Room john bland  15:15:32 GMT - 09/23/2016  
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari-
- still slack in economy
- want to see unemployment rate is falling
- more worried about raising rates too quickly than too slowly

Source : TTN

GVI Trading Room 15:04:26 GMT - 09/23/2016  
ECB policymakers said to be inclined to tweak QE, not make radical changes - press

- Source

LONDON SFH  13:58:10 GMT - 09/23/2016  
I know John-Im saying no one is getting it right- I would sack all the waste of time economists anyway- Money for old rope

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:56:27 GMT - 09/23/2016  
Sorry I was referring to U.S. econ data.

LONDON SFH  13:54:22 GMT - 09/23/2016  
When was the last time an official central bank got a forecast right?

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:49:55 GMT - 09/23/2016  
I can't recall the last data point that hasn't missed.

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:46:04 GMT - 09/23/2016  
flash mfg PMI miss

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:45:10 GMT - 09/23/2016  
U.S. flash Markit Mfg PMI September 2016

51.4 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.0 prev.

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Markit PMI Press Release

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:45:31 GMT - 09/23/2016  
Canada: CPI miss

Canada: Retail Sales miss expectations

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:34:19 GMT - 09/23/2016  
Data miss across the booard

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:33:00 GMT - 09/23/2016  

Canada: CPI (August) Retail Sales (July) 2016

Canada Charts

Bank of Canada Core
yy: +1.80% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.
mm: -0.20% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy: +1.10% vs. +1.40% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.


Retail Sales
Headline: -0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% (r) prev.
X-Autos: -0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.80% (r -0.60%) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  08:01:21 GMT - 09/23/2016  
EZ Flash PMIs September 2016

mfg: 52.6 vs. 51.1 exp. vs. 51.7 prev.
svc: 52.1 vs. 52.6 exp. vs. 52.8 prev.

mfg: 54.3 vs. 53.1 exp. vs. 53.6
svc: 50.6 vs. 52.1 exp. vs. 51.7

mfg: 49.5 vs. 48.4 exp. vs. 48.3
svc: 54.1 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.3

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Trading Room john bland  07:42:22 GMT - 09/23/2016  
Japan flash PMI September 2016

50.3 vs. n/a exp. vs. 49.5 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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EARLIER: Japan flash PMI higher.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:31:09 GMT - 09/22/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

+52 vs. +56 exp vs. +62 prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  14:05:08 GMT - 09/22/2016  
Existing Homes Sales Miss

PAR 14:04:35 GMT - 09/22/2016  
Leading indicators pointing to recession .

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:02:00 GMT - 09/22/2016  
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

5.330 vs. 5.450 exp. vs 5.390 (r 5.380) prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  14:01:16 GMT - 09/22/2016  
U.S. Leading Indicators August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-0.20% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.

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GVI Trading Room john bland  12:30:36 GMT - 09/22/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)
252K vs. 260K exp. vs. 260K prev.

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Livingston nh  01:10:37 GMT - 09/22/2016  
JP - Your point that Yellen "wants her public to believe" strikes a chord -- her well rehearsed answer about political considerations at the Fed was part of a pattern that she uses - there is a point at which she (and others) seems to have crossed into an active deception in order to move markets to believe that there is always a chance to raise rates - it's not that she is non-committal or unsure when she makes her statements about productivity, labor markets and inflation she is intentionally misleading

Mtl JP  22:06:38 GMT - 09/21/2016  
so yellen , who claims inability to see bubbles until after they burst , wants her public to believe she will give an order to raise rates before her notion of inflation - whatever that is - becomes visible up-close.

GVI Trading Room 21:05:40 GMT - 09/21/2016  
""Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. Our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging economic data." - Source

GVI Trading Room john bland  21:03:27 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Reserve Bank of New Zealand September 2016

Unchanged at 2.00%.

RELEASE: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

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Mtl JP  19:45:10 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Yellen -
- Fed has measures to counter conflict-of-interest concerns involving bankers on regional Fed boards
- "not in favor" of whites-of-eyes approach on inflation

Mtl JP  19:39:54 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Gold.. is rocking too

dc CB  19:35:38 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Nasdaq new all time high
Janet Janet Janet Janet

dc CB  19:23:10 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Mission accomplished, nah nah nah

SToX Up, Bonds Up, Crude Up.

dc CB  19:20:58 GMT - 09/21/2016  
"you won't find any signs of political motivation in the transcripts that are released in five years"

london red  19:18:00 GMT - 09/21/2016  
euro. some stops abv yest high. but 50% fib at 11225 likely to keep honest

Mtl JP  19:17:07 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Yellen -
- 'I want to lead an institution that is not political'
- Fed has to balance risk of overheating with fact that inflation is running below 2%

Mtl JP  19:09:47 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Yellen says
- there are risks in waiting too long to hike rates
- Dissents at meeting were about timing of rate hike
- Threats to financial stability 'are moderate'

trying instill a bit of a hawk slant ? haha

Mtl JP  19:03:30 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Yellen says -
every Fed meeting is 'live,' leaving door open for November move
02:53 Yellen: Partisan politics does not enter Fed decisions
02:53 Yellen denies Trump charge she makes policy based on Obama White House's wishes
02:51 Yellen: It's good Fed doesn't suffer from 'group-think
02:50 Yellen says she welcomes 'range of views' on Fed policy committee

Livingston nh  18:55:45 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Well now we know Yellen is a lyin' sack of ______ - she is retreating to the wise Congress that gave Fed independence and she assures that Fed does NOT take politics into account

BTW I have a Bridge in Brooklyn for sale

Livingston nh  18:49:15 GMT - 09/21/2016  
What if they gave a Presser and nobody came? -- no news deserves no reporters

Livingston nh  18:38:05 GMT - 09/21/2016  
This Fed can't REALIZE anything - Bernanke and Yellen have screwed this economy up for the last 5 years -- in the process the Fed has screwed most other economies as well

This MOPE couldn't decide what shoes to wear tomorrow

PAR 18:37:03 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Yellen will be out of a job before US rates will be raised.

dc CB  18:36:32 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Once again The Fed chickened out - despite reaching every goal they have set. Janet Yellen needs to explain why Trump is wrong, given her comments that "the case for an increase in fed funds rates has strengthened but [we] decided, for the the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress." Simply put, the data dependent Fed just admitted that it's going to ignore the data and just choose to stay on hold (before the election) as Trump might say "choosing the political answer not the right answer."


PAR 18:34:26 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Fed seems to realise US economy heading towards the worst recession since the 1920 's.

Livingston nh  18:31:55 GMT - 09/21/2016  
At least there were some dissents -- more than was expected less than was deserved

Livingston nh  18:27:45 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Another MAIL IT IN meeting -- no self esteem, no f#*king clue

dc CB  18:25:20 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Now Yellen will 'splain what they really meant.


Berlin DG  18:17:29 GMT - 09/21/2016  
FED actual action keeps the market nearly flat, now Yellen blahblahing to make the 1.13 or 1.10... with such lazy market 1.13 seems natural move, so expect the unexpected.

GVI Trading Room john bland  18:13:46 GMT - 09/21/2016  
10-yr 1.663% vs 1.694% beforehand.

dc CB  18:11:10 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Well the Nov 2 meeting is OUT OF THE QUESTION
So all will be tooin' and froin' the Dec...And there's so much that will happen between now and then. Maybe, just maybe people will STFU about it until mid November.

GVI Trading Room john bland  18:10:33 GMT - 09/21/2016  

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

austin mw  18:09:39 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Stanley Fischer should step down immediately. In Jan 4 hikes and a month ago 2 hikes and he votes with the doves!

GVI Trading Room john bland  18:06:22 GMT - 09/21/2016  
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on average. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.

GVI Trading Room john bland  18:00:06 GMT - 09/21/2016  
U.S. Fed Policy Decision September 2016

Fed Funds Target Range Steady at 0.25%-0.50%

RELEASE: Policy Statement

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london red  15:38:48 GMT - 09/21/2016  
euro. the pre fed stop run. 68-71 and 86 potential tops. stops abv 11202 unlikely to be rumbled pre fed. will settle off high into fed.

haifa ac  15:32:45 GMT - 09/21/2016  
The short term chart (GE or Eurodollar) just made the LOW OF THE YEAR a few hours ago (99.04). This is traded as HEDGE by big banks and they are betting AGAINST the fed right now.
Prepare for some adjustment. Both (the market AND short term interest rate ) cannot go opposite direction and both be right!

Livingston nh  15:15:40 GMT - 09/21/2016  
JP - RAISE interest rates if you believe that the long term will respond - Raise interest rates even if long rates don't care about CB policy -- money needs to move

Mtl JP  14:57:46 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Mr Yen (Sakakibara) says this policy will disappoint the markets. He sees USDJPY at 95 to 100 by yearend

or... alternately, the three-arrow numbnuts duo is failing to deliver a painful lesson to yen speculators who are having a field day mocking with the cretins' macroeconomic policy.

It appears that, for now at least, the good old days of bringing to heel the speculators and thus offering new trading opportunities are off

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:37:06 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Crude draw much larger than expected.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:36:10 GMT - 09/21/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -6.200 vs. +2.250 exp vs. -0.600 prev.
Gasoline: -3.200 vs. -1.450 exp vs. -0.570 prev.
Distillates: +2.200 vs. -1.350 exp vs. +4.650 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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Livingston nh  12:19:21 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Again a line chart (no clutter) shows USD/JPY 100 similar to Cable 1.29 lvl -- all these currencies are hostage to the Yellen Fed

LONDON SFH  12:10:49 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Not far to go....yen at pretty close to the years's lows already

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:06:51 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Not my forecast...


GVI Trading Room john bland 04:52 GMT 09/21/2016 -
Mr Yen (Sakakibara) says this policy will disappoint the markets. He sees USDJPY at 95 to 100 by yearend.

Haifa ac  08:15:02 GMT - 09/21/2016  
"glut of supply". Indeed. If EXXON closes the month below 81.98--the chart calls for 64.

LONDON SFH  08:10:45 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Quite a few people hoping for oil pxs to go higher but all we have is a glut of supply..not conducive in my opinion....main message out of BOJ for me is that they are, like the ECB, pretty happy with what they're doing and in no rush to increase it. Curves have steepend up sharply in the last few mos in JGBs and they are happy with where it is now so don't expect any big curve moves from here

GVI Trading Room john bland  07:59:32 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Just for the record, the BOJ is focused on getting inflation above 2.0%. Here is where we stand as of the latest data. BOJ's Kuroda appeared to be hoping for higher oil prices earlier. I don't know it that counts?

GVI Trading Room john bland  06:54:52 GMT - 09/21/2016  
-- too flat yield curve could add to worries about financial sector
-- short term rates and long term yields to be policy target
-- BOJ will not hesitate to add stimulus if needed

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  06:47:53 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Not much new coming from Kuroda's press conference. BOJ remains committed to 2% price target.

singapore td  06:25:00 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Nikkei says more more more

singapore td  06:23:15 GMT - 09/21/2016  
they all target the same thing: save stock markets, BTFD!

singapore td  06:21:27 GMT - 09/21/2016  
great, Kuroda the hero, 103.40 guaranteed

GVI Trading Room john bland  06:20:06 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Kuroda press conference set for 06:30 GMT (~10 mins)

SaaR KaL  05:37:01 GMT - 09/21/2016  
USDCAD Target 1.2600 from tops 1.3300

SaaR KaL  05:34:35 GMT - 09/21/2016  
..I agree
I am shorting it this week till 103.8
tgt 95

singapore td  05:25:20 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Mr Yen obviously forget about usd dynamics, not just jpy dynamics
95-100 by year end means nothing if we go to 110-120 first

GVI Trading Room john bland  05:15:12 GMT - 09/21/2016  
JGB 10-yr -0.039% +0.016

GVI Trading Room john bland  04:52:05 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Mr Yen (Sakakibara) says this policy will disappoint the markets. He sees USDJPY at 95 to 100 by yearend.

GVI Trading Room john bland  04:45:16 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Goal of QQE policy will be to steepen the yield curve, namely to push longer term rates higher vs/ short-term. USDJPY is up sharply as markets digested the news.
Nikkei up 191pts on the day

GVI Trading Room john bland  04:39:56 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Bank of Japan
-- Interest rate target unchanged at -0.10%
-- monetary base expansion steady at JPY 80tn
-- Changes monetary policy framework to yield control

Source: TTN

Livingston nh  22:40:46 GMT - 09/20/2016  
Could the draw be related to the pipeline break as try to replace the leaked gasoline?

CB - what say you?

GVI Trading Room john bland  20:36:43 GMT - 09/20/2016  
A large draw was unexpected.

GVI Trading Room john bland  20:35:46 GMT - 09/20/2016  
US Weekly API Crude

Reportedly -7.500 mn vs. +2.250 mn exp

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Haifa ac  14:28:57 GMT - 09/20/2016  
In this manipulated world this would happen ONLY if they know for sure (how?!) that Trump is going to win. Otherwise they are obligated to protect Hillary.
The debate will certainly be a knock out.

Manila  Tom  14:11:47 GMT - 09/20/2016  
My bet is fed will hike tomorrow. Gold is flashing sell signal.

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:59:16 GMT - 09/20/2016  
Atlanta Fed 3Q16 estimate now 2.90% vs. 3.00% 0n September 15.
-- Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:46:40 GMT - 09/20/2016  
Housing Stats/Permits both miss estimates.

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:30:46 GMT - 09/20/2016  
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Starts: 1.142 vs. 1.190 exp. vs. 1.211 () prev.
Permits:1.139 vs. 1.165 exp. vs. 1.152 (r 1.144)prev.

New Residential Construction

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Mtl JP  19:14:46 GMT - 09/19/2016  
so Gundlach is reading posts on gv
maybe just a nervous reaction from him

Mtl JP  19:11:32 GMT - 09/19/2016  
is or not a promise same as pledge ?

Livingston nh  19:09:13 GMT - 09/19/2016  
The OTHER to watch for is a downplay of "data dependent future" as risks are now "balanced"

Livingston nh  19:07:46 GMT - 09/19/2016  
A HAWKISH promise is different than HAWKISH language -- a promise is a promise

GVI Trading Room john bland  19:03:12 GMT - 09/19/2016  
Gundlach in line with street expectations.

GVI Trading Room john bland  19:02:31 GMT - 09/19/2016  
Doubleline's Gundlach:
-- Fed will not hike Wednesday
-- Expects Hawkish language


GVI Trading Room john bland  14:02:43 GMT - 09/19/2016  
NAHB beats estimates.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:00:27 GMT - 09/19/2016  
U.S. NAHB Index September 2016
U.S. Data Charts

65 vs. 60 exp. vs. 60 (r 59) prev.


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