But the timing of the president’s veto is designed to erode congressional support for the bill and put off a politically damaging override vote until after the November elections. Obama waited until the very end of the 10-day period he had to issue a veto, hoping to buy time to lobby members of Congress against the measure.
More details:
White House officials also hope congressional leaders will leave Washington to hit the campaign trail before trying for an override, kicking a vote to the lame-duck session after the election.
OBAMA VETOES BILL ALLOWING SEPT 11 VICTIMS TO SUE SAUDI ARABIA
Dillon AL 18:03:20 GMT - 09/23/2016
If the return on productive capital is too low, what happens to the rate of interest or savings will change nothing. This is the current status quo. It matters not what the natural rate is when profitability on traditional investment is currently such that the growth in the economy is pedestrian. In essence what we are talking about is velocity of which there is precious little in a deflationary world.
Until CBs start to understand that the Bernanke comparison to the 1930s is incorrect and that the better reference is Tulip-mania and the South Sea Bubble then we cannot come out from under the economic cloud and we will continue with mispricing of all asset classes
dc CB 17:46:47 GMT - 09/23/2016
Crude collapses as the latest fanatasy about caps and cutbacks vaporizes.
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:04:09 GMT - 09/23/2016
Rig Counts continue to rise.
GVI Trading Room john bland 17:03:36 GMT - 09/23/2016
Al - I think the yield curve is too flat (a result of the sudden interest in the Unknown wicksellian R) and businesses are not making capital investments with record amount of debt issuance undertaken // the interest portion of Personal Income has declined while the Savings rate is higher - the fiscal side has been very loose over the past few years w/ a record increase in the debt (lifestyle maintenance rather than investment) so the monetary side must be the culprit
Dillon AL 16:38:46 GMT - 09/23/2016
jp just about every business is built around borrow short lend long. The issue is the majority of CFOs have no business being in the positions they are in.
Classic case which I am sure will go down in teaching annals was Vodafone getting out of Verizon then transferring everything into Sterling at 1.57. Great trade not. They missed out on future value of Verizon and they lost out on FX benefit. The problem is that so many companies hedge far too late and too little. Their borrowing requirements are met when needed IE funded take-overs. In a positive sloping yield curve referred to as a normal curve there is every reason to borrow short and lend long so long as there is plenty of liquidity available which frequently is determined on the basis of credit quality
Mtl JP 16:28:57 GMT - 09/23/2016
AL 16:18 can u name some businesses that make long-term plant and equipment - not stock buybacks - investment decisions based on short/term 0% overnite rates ?
Dillon AL 16:18:04 GMT - 09/23/2016
wanted to raise interest rates to help prolong the economic expansion
??? oh yes let me see raise the cost of capital and that aids business to grow....me thinks not....The last thing the economy needs is people like him in positions of trust and power and influence. Time for him to retire
Livingston nh 16:09:21 GMT - 09/23/2016
AARGH - the daily data points are missed by the economists because the models have "normal" relationships built in and the Fed policies are in direct conflict with every stated GOAL that Yellen has expressed over the last two years (savings rate, productivity, inflation expectations and EMPLOYMENT)
Rosengren is no longer drinking the Kool-ade
Mtl JP 15:42:53 GMT - 09/23/2016
it is raining yakkers today:
At noon NYT voter Harker and voting hawk Mester yak at some panel
Half hour later voter Kaplan yaks; apparently w/Q&A
Mtl JP 15:29:26 GMT - 09/23/2016
soooo... NY Fed GDP forecast not promising and Rosengren says he wanted to raise interest rates to help prolong the economic expansion
GVI Trading Room john bland 15:20:25 GMT - 09/23/2016
NY Fed GDP forecast not very promising, especially if the FOMC looks at it.
GVI Trading Room john bland 15:18:10 GMT - 09/23/2016
NY Fed GDP forecast now 2.30% from 2.80% on sep 9.
--TTN
GVI Trading Room john bland 15:16:48 GMT - 09/23/2016
Keep in mind Kashkari has political ambitions. He is using his job at the Fed as a stepping stone.
GVI Trading Room john bland 15:15:32 GMT - 09/23/2016
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari-
- still slack in economy
- want to see unemployment rate is falling
- more worried about raising rates too quickly than too slowly
Source : TTN
GVI Trading Room15:04:26 GMT - 09/23/2016
ECB policymakers said to be inclined to tweak QE, not make radical changes - press
- Source TradeTheNews.com
LONDON SFH 13:58:10 GMT - 09/23/2016
I know John-Im saying no one is getting it right- I would sack all the waste of time economists anyway- Money for old rope
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:56:27 GMT - 09/23/2016
Sorry I was referring to U.S. econ data.
LONDON SFH 13:54:22 GMT - 09/23/2016
When was the last time an official central bank got a forecast right?
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:49:55 GMT - 09/23/2016
I can't recall the last data point that hasn't missed.
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:46:04 GMT - 09/23/2016
flash mfg PMI miss
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:45:10 GMT - 09/23/2016
NEWS ALERT
Bank of Canada Core
yy: +1.80% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.
Headline
mm: -0.20% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy: +1.10% vs. +1.40% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.
.
Retail Sales
Headline: -0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% (r) prev.
X-Autos: -0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.80% (r -0.60%) prev. TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Trading Room john bland 08:01:21 GMT - 09/23/2016
EZ Flash PMIs September 2016
ALERT
EZ
mfg: 52.6 vs. 51.1 exp. vs. 51.7 prev.
svc: 52.1 vs. 52.6 exp. vs. 52.8 prev.
German
mfg: 54.3 vs. 53.1 exp. vs. 53.6
svc: 50.6 vs. 52.1 exp. vs. 51.7
France
mfg: 49.5 vs. 48.4 exp. vs. 48.3
svc: 54.1 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.3
JP - Your point that Yellen "wants her public to believe" strikes a chord -- her well rehearsed answer about political considerations at the Fed was part of a pattern that she uses - there is a point at which she (and others) seems to have crossed into an active deception in order to move markets to believe that there is always a chance to raise rates - it's not that she is non-committal or unsure when she makes her statements about productivity, labor markets and inflation she is intentionally misleading
Mtl JP 22:06:38 GMT - 09/21/2016
so yellen , who claims inability to see bubbles until after they burst , wants her public to believe she will give an order to raise rates before her notion of inflation - whatever that is - becomes visible up-close.
GVI Trading Room21:05:40 GMT - 09/21/2016
""Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. Our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging economic data." - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Trading Room john bland 21:03:27 GMT - 09/21/2016
Yellen -
- Fed has measures to counter conflict-of-interest concerns involving bankers on regional Fed boards
- "not in favor" of whites-of-eyes approach on inflation
Mtl JP 19:39:54 GMT - 09/21/2016
Gold.. is rocking too
dc CB 19:35:38 GMT - 09/21/2016
Nasdaq new all time high
Janet Janet Janet Janet
dc CB 19:23:10 GMT - 09/21/2016
Yellen
Mission accomplished, nah nah nah
SToX Up, Bonds Up, Crude Up.
dc CB 19:20:58 GMT - 09/21/2016
Yellen
"you won't find any signs of political motivation in the transcripts that are released in five years"
london red 19:18:00 GMT - 09/21/2016
euro. some stops abv yest high. but 50% fib at 11225 likely to keep honest
Mtl JP 19:17:07 GMT - 09/21/2016
Yellen -
- 'I want to lead an institution that is not political'
- Fed has to balance risk of overheating with fact that inflation is running below 2%
Mtl JP 19:09:47 GMT - 09/21/2016
Yellen says
- there are risks in waiting too long to hike rates
- Dissents at meeting were about timing of rate hike
- Threats to financial stability 'are moderate'
trying instill a bit of a hawk slant ? haha
Mtl JP 19:03:30 GMT - 09/21/2016
Yellen says -
every Fed meeting is 'live,' leaving door open for November move
02:53 Yellen: Partisan politics does not enter Fed decisions
02:53 Yellen denies Trump charge she makes policy based on Obama White House's wishes
02:51 Yellen: It's good Fed doesn't suffer from 'group-think
02:50 Yellen says she welcomes 'range of views' on Fed policy committee
MarketWatch
Livingston nh 18:55:45 GMT - 09/21/2016
Well now we know Yellen is a lyin' sack of ______ - she is retreating to the wise Congress that gave Fed independence and she assures that Fed does NOT take politics into account
BTW I have a Bridge in Brooklyn for sale
Livingston nh 18:49:15 GMT - 09/21/2016
What if they gave a Presser and nobody came? -- no news deserves no reporters
Livingston nh 18:38:05 GMT - 09/21/2016
This Fed can't REALIZE anything - Bernanke and Yellen have screwed this economy up for the last 5 years -- in the process the Fed has screwed most other economies as well
This MOPE couldn't decide what shoes to wear tomorrow
PAR18:37:03 GMT - 09/21/2016
Yellen will be out of a job before US rates will be raised.
dc CB 18:36:32 GMT - 09/21/2016
Once again The Fed chickened out - despite reaching every goal they have set. Janet Yellen needs to explain why Trump is wrong, given her comments that "the case for an increase in fed funds rates has strengthened but [we] decided, for the the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress." Simply put, the data dependent Fed just admitted that it's going to ignore the data and just choose to stay on hold (before the election) as Trump might say "choosing the political answer not the right answer."
ZeroHedge
PAR18:34:26 GMT - 09/21/2016
Fed seems to realise US economy heading towards the worst recession since the 1920 's.
Livingston nh 18:31:55 GMT - 09/21/2016
At least there were some dissents -- more than was expected less than was deserved
Livingston nh 18:27:45 GMT - 09/21/2016
Another MAIL IT IN meeting -- no self esteem, no f#*king clue
FED actual action keeps the market nearly flat, now Yellen blahblahing to make the 1.13 or 1.10... with such lazy market 1.13 seems natural move, so expect the unexpected.
GVI Trading Room john bland 18:13:46 GMT - 09/21/2016
10-yr 1.663% vs 1.694% beforehand.
dc CB 18:11:10 GMT - 09/21/2016
Well the Nov 2 meeting is OUT OF THE QUESTION
So all will be tooin' and froin' the Dec...And there's so much that will happen between now and then. Maybe, just maybe people will STFU about it until mid November.
GVI Trading Room john bland 18:10:33 GMT - 09/21/2016
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
austin mw 18:09:39 GMT - 09/21/2016
Stanley Fischer should step down immediately. In Jan 4 hikes and a month ago 2 hikes and he votes with the doves!
GVI Trading Room john bland 18:06:22 GMT - 09/21/2016
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on average. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.
GVI Trading Room john bland 18:00:06 GMT - 09/21/2016
U.S. Fed Policy Decision September 2016
NEWS ALERT
Fed Funds Target Range Steady at 0.25%-0.50%
euro. the pre fed stop run. 68-71 and 86 potential tops. stops abv 11202 unlikely to be rumbled pre fed. will settle off high into fed.
haifa ac 15:32:45 GMT - 09/21/2016
The short term chart (GE or Eurodollar) just made the LOW OF THE YEAR a few hours ago (99.04). This is traded as HEDGE by big banks and they are betting AGAINST the fed right now.
Prepare for some adjustment. Both (the market AND short term interest rate ) cannot go opposite direction and both be right!
Livingston nh 15:15:40 GMT - 09/21/2016
JP - RAISE interest rates if you believe that the long term will respond - Raise interest rates even if long rates don't care about CB policy -- money needs to move
Mtl JP 14:57:46 GMT - 09/21/2016
Mr Yen (Sakakibara) says this policy will disappoint the markets. He sees USDJPY at 95 to 100 by yearend
or... alternately, the three-arrow numbnuts duo is failing to deliver a painful lesson to yen speculators who are having a field day mocking with the cretins' macroeconomic policy.
It appears that, for now at least, the good old days of bringing to heel the speculators and thus offering new trading opportunities are off
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:37:06 GMT - 09/21/2016
Crude draw much larger than expected.
GVI Trading Room john bland 14:36:10 GMT - 09/21/2016
NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -6.200 vs. +2.250 exp vs. -0.600 prev.
Gasoline: -3.200 vs. -1.450 exp vs. -0.570 prev.
Distillates: +2.200 vs. -1.350 exp vs. +4.650 prev.
Again a line chart (no clutter) shows USD/JPY 100 similar to Cable 1.29 lvl -- all these currencies are hostage to the Yellen Fed
LONDON SFH 12:10:49 GMT - 09/21/2016
Not far to go....yen at pretty close to the years's lows already
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:06:51 GMT - 09/21/2016
Not my forecast...
REPEAT
GVI Trading Room john bland 04:52 GMT 09/21/2016 -
Mr Yen (Sakakibara) says this policy will disappoint the markets. He sees USDJPY at 95 to 100 by yearend.
Haifa ac 08:15:02 GMT - 09/21/2016
"glut of supply". Indeed. If EXXON closes the month below 81.98--the chart calls for 64.
LONDON SFH 08:10:45 GMT - 09/21/2016
Quite a few people hoping for oil pxs to go higher but all we have is a glut of supply..not conducive in my opinion....main message out of BOJ for me is that they are, like the ECB, pretty happy with what they're doing and in no rush to increase it. Curves have steepend up sharply in the last few mos in JGBs and they are happy with where it is now so don't expect any big curve moves from here
GVI Trading Room john bland 07:59:32 GMT - 09/21/2016
Just for the record, the BOJ is focused on getting inflation above 2.0%. Here is where we stand as of the latest data. BOJ's Kuroda appeared to be hoping for higher oil prices earlier. I don't know it that counts?
GVI Trading Room john bland 06:54:52 GMT - 09/21/2016
Kuroda:
-- too flat yield curve could add to worries about financial sector
-- short term rates and long term yields to be policy target
-- BOJ will not hesitate to add stimulus if needed
Source: TTN
GVI Trading Room john bland 06:47:53 GMT - 09/21/2016
Not much new coming from Kuroda's press conference. BOJ remains committed to 2% price target.
singapore td 06:25:00 GMT - 09/21/2016
Nikkei says more more more
singapore td 06:23:15 GMT - 09/21/2016
they all target the same thing: save stock markets, BTFD!
singapore td 06:21:27 GMT - 09/21/2016
great, Kuroda the hero, 103.40 guaranteed
GVI Trading Room john bland 06:20:06 GMT - 09/21/2016
Kuroda press conference set for 06:30 GMT (~10 mins)
SaaR KaL 05:37:01 GMT - 09/21/2016
USDCAD Target 1.2600 from tops 1.3300
SaaR KaL 05:34:35 GMT - 09/21/2016
..I agree
I am shorting it this week till 103.8
tgt 95
singapore td 05:25:20 GMT - 09/21/2016
Mr Yen obviously forget about usd dynamics, not just jpy dynamics
95-100 by year end means nothing if we go to 110-120 first
GVI Trading Room john bland 05:15:12 GMT - 09/21/2016
JGB 10-yr -0.039% +0.016
GVI Trading Room john bland 04:52:05 GMT - 09/21/2016
Mr Yen (Sakakibara) says this policy will disappoint the markets. He sees USDJPY at 95 to 100 by yearend.
GVI Trading Room john bland 04:45:16 GMT - 09/21/2016
Goal of QQE policy will be to steepen the yield curve, namely to push longer term rates higher vs/ short-term. USDJPY is up sharply as markets digested the news.
Nikkei up 191pts on the day
GVI Trading Room john bland 04:39:56 GMT - 09/21/2016
Bank of Japan
-- Interest rate target unchanged at -0.10%
-- monetary base expansion steady at JPY 80tn
-- Changes monetary policy framework to yield control
Source: TTN
Livingston nh 22:40:46 GMT - 09/20/2016
Could the draw be related to the pipeline break as try to replace the leaked gasoline?
CB - what say you?
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:36:43 GMT - 09/20/2016
A large draw was unexpected.
GVI Trading Room john bland 20:35:46 GMT - 09/20/2016
In this manipulated world this would happen ONLY if they know for sure (how?!) that Trump is going to win. Otherwise they are obligated to protect Hillary.
The debate will certainly be a knock out.
Manila Tom 14:11:47 GMT - 09/20/2016
My bet is fed will hike tomorrow. Gold is flashing sell signal.
GVI Trading Room john bland 13:59:16 GMT - 09/20/2016
Atlanta Fed 3Q16 estimate now 2.90% vs. 3.00% 0n September 15.
-- Source: TTN
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:46:40 GMT - 09/20/2016
Housing Stats/Permits both miss estimates.
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:30:46 GMT - 09/20/2016
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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