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Mtl JP  22:13:30 GMT - 10/07/2016  
Mtl JP 00:06 GMT September 20, 2016
Tuesday Trading: Reply
usdcad 1.32
odds are it heads higher
first trgt: 1.33
----------------
some of my best trades are those that I do not nurse by way of the 5-minute chart....


GVI Trading Room john bland  14:25:02 GMT - 09/20/2016  
Current odds on Fed rate hike on Wednesday 12% (unchanged from late Monday). A rate hike would be an unexpected event for traders based on these market prices.


GVI Trading Room john bland  13:23:17 GMT - 09/20/2016  
DAX +68
DJ +64
SP +8

10-yr 1.582% -1.8bp


GVI Trading Room john bland  09:01:15 GMT - 09/20/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

20-Aug TUE
12:30 US-Housing Starts/Permits
21-Aug WED
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
22-Aug THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
23-Aug FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales


Trading Themes--
  • Markets continue to jockey for positions ahead of key central bank decisions by the BOJ and Fed decisions tomorrow. Today features Housing Starts and Permits from the U.S. for August. Housing is a key metric for the economy.

  • I am not sure about what to expect from the Bank of Japan. They seem to have a habit of over-promising and under-delivering. I expect they will announce another round of half-hearted monetary stimulus. Expect JPY volatility after the BOJ decision is announced, depending on the outcome.

  • As for the Federal Reserve. Recently, they have turned the policy reins over to the marketplace, most notably the Fed Funds futures market. Fed Funds futures have placed very low odds on a rate hike thus week, so it might be best to follow their lead. As for future policy, all we can do is wait to see what the markets dictate to Chair Yellen what she will decide at that time. I am expecting EURUSD to weaken after the Fed, as their policy statement will likely take a hawkish tone.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets



nw kw  00:42:53 GMT - 09/20/2016  
Overconfidence can be dangerous in tournaments like this one, the Canadian head coach said. Babcock wants his team living "scared" instead, ready to combat a potentially irritable U.S. squad on Tuesday night.
soft jpy //cad softest I'm on cadjpy for eurcad up trend?


Mtl JP  00:14:22 GMT - 09/20/2016  
maybe odds of hike are priced low
but Diamon ordered them raised

Jamies knows there is a fed-induced financial bubble that needs some letting out


Mtl JP  00:06:29 GMT - 09/20/2016  
usdcad 1.32
odds are it heads higher
first trgt: 1.33


GVI Trading Room john bland  21:02:09 GMT - 09/19/2016  
Fed rate hike odds for Wednesday 10%
20-day 1.1214
pivot 1.1176



Mtl JP  20:51:59 GMT - 09/19/2016  
Trade suggestion ?
"it might be best to follow their lead" = most but not all on same side of the boat

in betting the crowd favorit costs the most for least expected reward
it is the longshot that costs the least and pays the most if - on the rare occasion - he comes in.



GVI Trading Room john bland  20:28:05 GMT - 09/19/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

20-Aug TUE
12:30 US-Housing Starts/Permits
21-Aug WED
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
22-Aug THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
23-Aug FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales


Trading Themes--
  • Markets put in their typical cautious session on Monday. This week their focus is on the BOJ and Fed decisions due Wednesday. Tuesday features Housing Starts and Permits from the U.S. for August. Housing is a key metric for the economy.

  • Germany's CDU ruling party, Angela Merkel's CDU suffered big losses in Regional elections in Berlin over the weekend, due to the unpopularity of her immigration policies. Next year sees national elections.

  • This week features key central bank decisions by the Bank of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. I am not sure about what to expect from the Bank of Japan. They seem to have a habit of over-promising and under-delivering. I expect they will announce another round of half-hearted monetary stimulus. Expect JPY volatilty after the BOJ decision is announced, depending on the outcome.

  • As for the Fderal Reserve. Recently, they have turned the policy reins over to the marketplace, most notably the Fed Funds futures market. Fed Funds futures have placed very low odds on a rate hike thus week, so it might be best to follow their lead. As for future policy, all we can do is wait to see what the markets dictate to Chair Yellen what she will decide at that time. I am expecting EURUSD to weaken after the Fed, as their policy statement will likely take a hawkish tone.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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