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GVI Trading Room john bland  20:05:46 GMT - 09/21/2016  

22-Aug THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
23-Aug FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales


Trading Themes--
  • The economic calendar for Thursday is light ahead of an active Friday, which sees a slew of flash PMI readings and key Canadian releases (Retail Sales and CPI).

  • The Federal Reserve kept its key Fed Funds target range steady at 0.25-0.50%. The markets had been running very low odds on a rate hike this time around after a run of poor data recently. Futhermore, while the Fed tries to be an apolitical organization, in the past they often have held back on policy changes so close to national elections so they cannot be accused of impacting the election.

  • So politics can play a role in their decision-making. As for future policy, all we can do is wait to see what the markets dictate to Chair Yellen what she will decide at that time.

  • Wednesday saw volatile trade in the JPY after a confusing policy decision by the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan announced a fundamental change in how it implements policy. It will no longer will be targeting reserves. It now will target JGB yields. Most notably, it will target the 10-yr JGB at around zero. The BOJ wants to steepen the yield curve and therefore improve the profitability of the financial system and therefore help the economy.

  • The Bank of Japan did not change rates, nor did it change the volume of its QE. As expected, extreme JPY volatility followed the BOJ decision. After spiking up sharply, USD is closing down sharply on the day.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On



GVI Trading Room john bland  20:19:50 GMT - 09/21/2016  
Odds for one Fed rate hike by yearend currently 54% vs. 56% on Tuesday's close. That is down a touch.


GVI Trading Room john bland  08:16:07 GMT - 09/22/2016  

22-Sep THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23-Sep FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales


Trading Themes--
  • The USD is trading mostly weaker against Europe but it is higher vs. the JPY following the Fed and ECB yesterday. The economic calendar for today is light ahead of an active Friday, which sees a slew of flash PMI readings and key Canadian releases (Retail Sales and CPI).

  • On Wednesday the Federal Reserve kept its key Fed Funds target range steady at 0.25-0.50%. The markets had been running very low odds on a rate hike. Chair Yellen did indicate that a rate hike was likely by year-end, which suggests the December 13-14 meeting.

  • Wednesday saw volatile JPY trade after a confusing policy decision by the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan announced a fundamental change in how it implements policy. It will no longer will be targeting reserves. It now will target the 10-yr JGB at around zero. The BOJ wants to steepen the yield curve and therefore improve the profitability of the financial system and therefore help the economy.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On


Singapore 08:30:08 GMT - 09/22/2016  
GV trading - why are your data dated Aug and not September?


GVI Trading Room john bland  08:42:29 GMT - 09/22/2016  
Just testing you! Thanks for pointing it out!


GVI Trading Room john bland  08:44:58 GMT - 09/22/2016  

1.


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GVI Trading Room john bland  10:06:50 GMT - 09/22/2016  
Equities: Risk On
DAX +199
DJ +59
SP +7

10-yr
1.649% -0.9bp


GVI Trading Room john bland  11:39:50 GMT - 09/22/2016  
ECB President Draghi speaks at 13:00 GMT






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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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