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PAR 17:46:02 GMT - 09/29/2016  
German banks - Show us the money . Liquidation of the derivative positions will get messy , Huge profits for some , gigantic losses for others . Better be careful .

GVI Trading john bland  17:19:47 GMT - 09/29/2016  
Also, Commerzbank slammed 7%+ in aftermarket trade.

PAR 17:18:22 GMT - 09/29/2016  
I would no longer execute new orders from Deutsche Bank . I would put them on liquidation only .

PAR 17:16:28 GMT - 09/29/2016  
Who has the biggest exposure to Deutsche Bank ?

GVI Trading john bland  17:15:50 GMT - 09/29/2016  
Somebody knows something? "Smart Money" headed for the door.

GVI Trading 16:47:00 GMT - 09/29/2016  
Reportedly 10 hedge funds have reduced exposure to Deutsche Bank, hedge fund clients have reduced collateral on trades - press - Source

GVI Trading john bland  14:34:53 GMT - 09/29/2016  
Fed's Powell:
-- Fed can continue to be patient
-- supports gradual rate hike path

Source: TTN

GVI Trading john bland  14:30:28 GMT - 09/29/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

+49 vs. +55 exp vs. +52 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  14:05:32 GMT - 09/29/2016  
Pending Homes Sales much weaker than forecast.

GVI Trading john bland  14:05:32 GMT - 09/29/2016  
Pending Homes Sales much weaker than forecast.

GVI Trading john bland  14:01:03 GMT - 09/29/2016  
U.S. Pending Homes Sales August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-2.40% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. +1.30% (r +1.20%) prev.
RELEASE: Pending Home Sales

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GVI Trading john bland  12:32:03 GMT - 09/29/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)
254K vs. 260K exp. vs. 252K prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims steady

Click on chart for over twelve-year history

GVI Trading john bland  12:30:20 GMT - 09/29/2016  
U.S. GDP 2Q16
U.S. Data Charts
U.S. Data Charts

+1.40% vs. +1.30% exp. vs. +1.10% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  12:28:59 GMT - 09/29/2016  
-- Rate increase could cone at any time
-- makes sense to wait for more evidence before raising rates

GVI Forex john bland  08:06:06 GMT - 09/29/2016  
German september Jobless increased slightly (lower is better).

GVI Forex john bland  07:58:14 GMT - 09/29/2016  
German Unemployment September 2016

Rate: 6.10% vs. 6.10% exp. vs. 6.10% prev.
Change: +1K vs. -5K exp. vs. -7K (r -6K) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB  20:37:55 GMT - 09/28/2016  
US producers and Canadian producers will be "glad" to agree to cut production and cooperated with OPEC countries, you know, the those wonderful Mid Eastern rulers who successfully bankrupted so many NoAmer companies. LOL

dc CB  20:30:12 GMT - 09/28/2016  
IMHO this will all fall apart next week...the OPEC Headlines.
This a move to boost the bottom line for the end of the quarter.
A whole bunch bought in the on the "it's goin' to $50" run during the last time this BS made the rounds in August.

GVI Trading Room john bland  20:04:04 GMT - 09/28/2016  
OPEC formal meeting underway to agree to November output cut.

GVI Trading Room john bland  19:32:48 GMT - 09/28/2016  
New update to OPEC production estimate 32.5 to 33.0 bbd range.

Source: TTN

dc CB  19:10:58 GMT - 09/28/2016  
WSJ: OPEC Reaches Understanding on Output Cut

PAR 18:43:50 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Rising crude prices and negative interest rates .A lethal combination making Draghi look like a fool.

GVI Trading Room john bland  18:39:12 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Headline below has been corrected. Item on CNBC said the base was 40 mln, instead of 33.2mln on Reuters. Cut would be about 700K bbd.

Many are always skeptical. Some say if it holds prices would head to maybe $50 per barrel.

As with the Fed, pay attention to what they do, not what they say!

GVI Trading Room john bland  18:35:32 GMT - 09/28/2016  
OPEC reportedly agrees to a cut in production to 32.5 mln barrels from current 33.2 mln BBD in August. Thus would take place in November. -- Reuters

LONDON SFH  14:43:45 GMT - 09/28/2016  

Good old Janet

Mtl JP  14:35:43 GMT - 09/28/2016  
SFH 14:20 - It is all in The Plan !

Mtl JP  14:34:50 GMT - 09/28/2016  
according to janet:
- Big U.S. bank conditions have improved 'considerably' since crisis

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:33:59 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Crude Oil draw unexpected, although API fell yesterday.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:31:30 GMT - 09/28/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -1.900 vs. +2.750 exp vs. -6.200 prev.
Gasoline: +2.000 vs. +0.070 exp vs. -3.200 prev.
Distillates: -1.900 vs. -0.650 exp vs. +2.200 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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PAR 14:26:39 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Selling assets will not help Deutsche in the long run . When they sell all profitable assets , what will be left ? A big US fine ?

Livingston nh  14:25:07 GMT - 09/28/2016  
SFH - the ostmark was a bit unexpected -- all politicians are the same

LONDON SFH  14:20:17 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Germany says no since it doesn't belive in state subsidies..regardless of Italy....DB would be a bigger event than Lehman imo...The way the stock price is going DVB won't be so big for long...Snapchat is worth more than DB

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:18:14 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Yellen did not comment on policy in her prepared remarks, as expected. She could see policy questions in her Q&A.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:15:27 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Atlanta Fed 3Q16 GDP forecast cut to 2.8% vs. 2.9% on Sep 20.

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:43:06 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Testimony--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Supervision and Regulation
Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives
10:00 a.m. ET (14:00 GMT)

Not likely to be market moving unless some policy questions pop-up in the Q&A.

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:40:18 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Draghi testimony is before the German Parliament.

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:39:12 GMT - 09/28/2016  
-- ECB not operating in a vacuum, other economic policies are needed.
-- ECB not main reason for low bank profitability
-- Inflation to rise by 1/2% over 2016 and 2017

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:35:05 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Headline Durable Gods orders better than expected, but previous data revised down. On balance not strong data.

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:33:12 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Durable Goods Orders August 2016

U.S. Data Charts

Headline: 0.0% vs. -1.40% exp. vs. +4.40% (r +3.60%) prev.
Ex-Trans: -0.40% vs. -0.50% exp. vs. +1.50% (r +1.10%) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

LONDON SFH  09:04:44 GMT - 09/28/2016  
The piece states it is a worst-case scenario but clearly they have to have a contingency...

GVI Trading Room john bland  09:00:55 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Another press source denying the DB contingency plan.

Logic suggests that there MUST be a plan in place or at least being considered. Its understandable that the government would be putting pressure on the bank to sort this out for itself if it can.

LONDON SFH  08:54:28 GMT - 09/28/2016  
It does highlight the seriousness of the situation... Despite Merkel saying there would be no public money for them...but do you want to be long bunds when the German Govt is supporting DB?

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:51:40 GMT - 09/28/2016  
Press Report -- German government preparing a plan to take a stake in DB in a "worst-case" scenario".

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:01:44 GMT - 09/27/2016  
Big beat in Conference Board.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:00:21 GMT - 09/27/2016  
U.S. Conference Board Survey September 2016
U.S. Data Charts

104.1 vs. 99.0 exp. vs. 101.1 (r) prev.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence Data

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GVI Trading Room john bland  13:59:58 GMT - 09/27/2016  
Richmond Fed misses.

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:59:29 GMT - 09/27/2016  
U.S. Richmond Fed Index September 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-8 vs. -2 exp. vs. -11 prev.

TTN: Live News

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:45:57 GMT - 09/27/2016  
Markit Service flash PMI beats

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:45:19 GMT - 09/27/2016  
U.S. Markit flash Services PMI September 2016
U.S. Data Charts

51.9 vs. 51.1 exp. vs. 51.0

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Trading Room john bland  13:01:27 GMT - 09/27/2016  
U.S. Case Shiller-20 July 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+5.00% vs. +5.10% exp. vs. +5.10% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading Room john bland  11:42:09 GMT - 09/27/2016  
Markets are not taking this offer seriously.

GVI Trading Room john bland  11:41:00 GMT - 09/27/2016  
Report Saudis offer to cut output by 500K per day if Iran caps its output.

Source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  07:47:42 GMT - 09/27/2016  
Saudi comment implies no decision will be forthcoming.

GVI Trading Room john bland  07:46:17 GMT - 09/27/2016  
Saudi Oil Minister Oil Minister, Algiers meeting "consultative".

Mtl JP  14:43:42 GMT - 09/26/2016  
Its in the hands of the politicians to do something. I am not holding my breath.

Which is Worse (Better?) : An Impotent Central Banker Or A Politician With A Case Of The Do-Something?

HK  [email protected]  14:39:38 GMT - 09/26/2016  

I expect NASA, to at least announce something like... the discovery of aliens sacrificing their own race on high pyramids in abandoned temples in the jungles.

LONDON SFH  14:38:55 GMT - 09/26/2016  
One thing the ECB has been doing in recent mos is bleating about how the Govts should do more....and the Germans have most room....elections next year so if you hold your breath you will go blue v soon

HK [email protected]  14:33:36 GMT - 09/26/2016  

It is not that they have nothing to say, but they know traders are expecting something sensational.
So creating disappointment is their trade.

I hope NASA will not get us the same trash about Europa Moon today, so I shall not become angry.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:29:18 GMT - 09/26/2016  
SFH- true. For all their bluster, there is not not much that any of the central banks can do. Its in the hands of the politicians to do something. I am not holding my breath.

Mtl JP  14:27:14 GMT - 09/26/2016  
spew meaningless words is an art
or an indication of ... _________

LONDON SFH  14:25:02 GMT - 09/26/2016  
He really saying nothing new... Wasting everyones time

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:21:56 GMT - 09/26/2016  
Draghi prepared text to EU Parliament:
-- EZ economy expected to continue to grow at a moderate and steady pace, but slightly less momentum than thought in June.
-- low rates symptom of underlying situation.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:02:01 GMT - 09/26/2016  
Slight beat in NHS vs. expectations, but data were down mo/mo. Prev data revised up a touch.

GVI Trading Room john bland  14:00:56 GMT - 09/26/2016  
U.S. New Home Sales August 2016

609K vs. 600K exp. vs. 654K (r 659K) prev.

New Residential Sales

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP  13:46:25 GMT - 09/26/2016  
raining cretins today
Coeure is just one other one in a parade of cretins trying to influence players by peddling drivel. market for practical purposes zzzzz

Lets see what what reaction Mario "bazooka" Draghi elicits from the trading crowd at top of the hour

Later this eve BoC Poloz yaks
something on meddling with markets

Poloz - Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy Time 16:10 (Pacific Time), 19:10 (Eastern Time)

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:27:39 GMT - 09/26/2016  
Sounds like the rest of the world...

GVI Trading Room john bland  13:26:58 GMT - 09/26/2016  
Coeure : France at risk to being caught in low growth/low interest rate equilibrium.


Mtl JP  13:04:44 GMT - 09/26/2016  
ECB' Coeure about to yak

Livingston nh  12:42:39 GMT - 09/26/2016  
Here we go again -- Fed version Russian Roulette (all empty chambers - shell game w/ no pea)

GVI Trading Room john bland  12:31:15 GMT - 09/26/2016  
Lacker (hawK):
-- Case strong for December rate hike based on what we see now.

source: TTN

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:25:30 GMT - 09/26/2016  
BOJ Kuroda:
-- will steer monetary appropriately while watching JPY closely

LONDON SFH  08:04:05 GMT - 09/26/2016  
Big numbers....Even DB can make money in an exconomy growing like that

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:01:41 GMT - 09/26/2016  
IFO Much stronger than expected

GVI Trading Room john bland  08:01:11 GMT - 09/26/2016  
German IFO Survey September 2016
Global-VIew EZ and German Charts


Climate:109.5 vs. 106.3 exp. vs. 106.2 prev.
Conditions: 114.7 vs. 112.9 exp. vs. 112.8 prev.
Expectations: 104.5 vs. 100.1 exp. vs. 100.1 prev.

IFO Climate Survey

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

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Tue 28 May 2019
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Thu 30 Mar 2019
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