-- Jobs report close to a "goldilocks" number
-- growth NOT close to what we are used to
Livingston nh 13:51:56 GMT - 10/07/2016
I agree John she will use any reason to avoid a hike
GVI Trading john bland 13:36:16 GMT - 10/07/2016
nh- I'm not saying what they SHOULD do, I'm stuck trying to predict what they WILL do.
Livingston nh 13:31:51 GMT - 10/07/2016
John - Yellen is dreaming if she puts that stupid line about a continued improvement needed in employment -- we are at the natural limits -- BLS repeated throughout today's labor report "virtually unchanged" "nearly unchanged" or unchanged for every stat over the last year
She has sacrificed good at the altar of the perfect - Brainard talks today and this is Yellen's proxy for any delay (she keeps the BoG w/o dissent) because the focus is inflation and the mythical "neutral rate" that they are banging the drum for
PAR13:29:57 GMT - 10/07/2016
Worse, however, than even the breakdown in September job quality, was another seldom-touted series: the number of Multiple jobholders, or people who are forced to hold more than one job due to insufficient wages. It was here that the red flashing light came on because as a result of the 301K monthly surge in Americans holding more than one job, the 5th highest monthly spike in the past decade, the total number of Multiple jobholders soared to 7.863 million, the highest number since the financial crisis, and a number surpassed just once in the past decade: in August of 2008, just before all hell broke loose.
PAR13:27:09 GMT - 10/07/2016
Part-Time Jobs Soar By 430,000 As Multiple Jobholders Surge To August 2008 Levels
I remain of the view that the first market to crack will be the bond market. After which I guess you get stocks and then chaos on currency markets... and someone at some point will have to jail all the Central Bankers of the world and their enablers. Whoever they may be. Gonna be fun. Not. gl gt
Paris ib 16:23:21 GMT - 10/06/2016
And we are all sitting here waiting for someone to pull the plug...
Paris ib 16:20:37 GMT - 10/06/2016
John we all know the history. It's just we prefer not to think about it.
GVI Trading john bland 16:12:17 GMT - 10/06/2016
Makes me a bit nervous that the major central banks at some point are going to own everything! They will have bought it all with "printed paper" I think we have seen this story once before after WWI and that did not end well in Germany. But of course nobody knows any history any more!
Paris ib 16:04:18 GMT - 10/06/2016
How this all ends John is anyone's guess but seriously does anyone think this money madness can end well? Anywhere? I just don't see that happening. How the mess explodes is an open question but that's just the detail.
GVI Trading john bland 16:01:45 GMT - 10/06/2016
There was never any chance the ECB was ready to taper. I believe they accept that QE and negative interest rates have been a boondoggle, but they don't like to admit that they were wrong.
Paris ib 15:54:13 GMT - 10/06/2016
Sure but the USD is gaining a bit against everything (except OIL). AUD down, USD/JPY up....
GVI Trading john bland 15:53:06 GMT - 10/06/2016
ECB's Constancio Report nearing consensus to taper QE incorrect.
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 15:50:59 GMT - 10/06/2016
EURUSD down on this
11:47 (EU) ECB's Constancio (Portugal): earlier report ECB was near tapering consensus is not correct; QE to go until inflation is back on path to target - press
- no foundation to rumors surrounding future QE policy- council has not discussed anything on QE timetable
Markit Service PMI due at 13:45 GMT. This is a relatively new series and is not too widely followed. The major report of the day is the well-established ISM servic PMI due at the top of the hour. This report is closely monitored. Last month it was much weaker than expected and put the final nail in the coffin for a September Fed rate hike.
Must have been a big API crude draw. Prices up sharply
Livingston nh 16:15:53 GMT - 10/04/2016
Draghi been getting heat from banks and pols about NIRP - the only way to rein in the CBs short of impeachment or national treasury finance folks putting the bankers back under the thumb
london red 16:08:42 GMT - 10/04/2016
might be some covering at 75
london red 16:04:21 GMT - 10/04/2016
euro. no hourly close over 200hma. if nxt hr closes abv can move higher but doesnt look like it. so possie may now work into nfp. but that sup 11115/20 shud hold into nfp.
london red 15:56:20 GMT - 10/04/2016
no higher daily high made yet. proper stops will be over 11284 but they shud be safe. folk will be fading mids 30's 50 and 70 odd with stops abv said lvl.
Livingston nh 15:51:45 GMT - 10/04/2016
Squeezes in nervous markets
Livingston nh 15:50:06 GMT - 10/04/2016
Sounds like DB rumor redux
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 15:42:38 GMT - 10/04/2016
EURUSD spiked on this:
11:39 (EU) ECB QE tapering scenarios reportedly include slowing by increments of €10B/month; timing on tapering to depend on economic outlook - press - program could still be extended at full 80B/mo pace beyond March 2017 -
GVI Trading john bland 13:23:00 GMT - 10/04/2016
Paychex indicator is another ADP type number. What caught my eye is "lowest point in 2016". Lets watch to see if it was a harbinger for the Friday data.
GVI Trading john bland 13:20:34 GMT - 10/04/2016
"The Paychex - IHS Small Business Jobs Index declined in September to its lowest point in 2016. Nevertheless, at 100.52, the national index continues to show solid small business employment gains. "
nw kw 08:50:54 GMT - 10/04/2016
chf trend softest,?
LONDON SFH 08:49:12 GMT - 10/04/2016
sja- The mkt is hitting the politicians hard...and the idiots deserve it..
nw kw 08:40:14 GMT - 10/04/2016
year out looking for 125 that's not much down side?
bali sja 08:38:28 GMT - 10/04/2016
yesterday's beat data could not bring it above 1.29, today's data also beat cannot bring it above 1.28, stairways down to hell for cable
GVI Trading john bland 08:31:01 GMT - 10/04/2016
Strong beat by U.K. Construction PMI.
GVI Trading john bland 08:30:12 GMT - 10/04/2016
Construction PMI September 2016
-- NEWS ALERT --
52.3 vs. 49.0 exp. vs. 49.2 prev.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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