Thursday looks to be a quiet session on the data front ahead of U.S. and Canadian employment data on Friday.
Wednesday saw a big surprise in the U.S. ISM Service PMI, which saw a much stronger than expected headline number of 57.1 vs. 51.4 in August. August weakness might have been an aberration.
Furthermore, the employment sub-component was strong (57.2 vs. 50.7). It can often (NOT Always!) presage NFP. This item suggests we could see a strong NFP report Friday.
Street estimates are for a gain of about 170K in the month after the +151K advance in August. Any reading of roughly around +180K would keep a December rate hike in the frame. It is expected to increase +170K vs. +151K in August.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
dc CB 21:09:37 GMT - 10/05/2016
You guys are sooooooo Dumb
And Dumb for , give you a break, 4 years running
Wednesday saw one big surprise in U.S. data. First of all, the September ADP Payroll data were right in line with street expectations gaining 154K jobs vs. expectations for and advance of 165K. The ISM Service PMI saw a much stronger than expected headline number of 57.1 vs. 51.4 in August.
Furthermore the employment sub-component was strong (57.2 vs. 5.07). It can often (NOT Always!) presage NFP. It suggests a strong reading on Friday. The headline reading washed out the big decline in the August data. No major market-moving data are due Thursday.
The broader trading focus now is on the U.S. September employment data on Friday. Street estimates are for a gain of about 170K in the month after the +151K advance in August. Any reading of roughly around +180K would keep a December rate hike in the frame. It is expected to increase +170K vs. +151K in August.
Sentiment in the EURUSD was changed Tuesday by a story discussing possible ECB tapering scenarios. Reportedly, one such scenario would cut back on purchases by EUR 10bln per month. It said its timing would depend on the economic outlook. I don't think an ECB tapering is imminent, but when traders saw the word tapering, they reacted immediately by buying EURUSD. Nevertheless an end to EZ QE is somewhere out on the horizon.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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