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GVI Trading john bland  19:13:12 GMT - 10/07/2016  
November was never going to happen.

I saw Former Chair Greenspan yesterday in an interview. He said in his 17 years as Fed Chair, there was never a discussion about not raising rates ahead of an election. On the other hand, he said there was an unspoken agreement not to change policy in the period leading up to a national election, except under special circumstances.

I worked a couple of decades for a top Fed watching service, The owners had been top Fed officials and told me numerous times that the Fed tries to keep a low profile into national elections.


dc CB  18:58:54 GMT - 10/07/2016  
The subdued September jobs report ensures the Federal Reserve won’t be raising short-term interest rates at its November policy meeting, a week before the U.S. presidential election, and creates a new thread of uncertainty about its action in mid-December.

The Fed Whisperer
Jon Hilzenrath
WSJ


GVI Trading john bland  16:01:13 GMT - 10/07/2016  
Almost back to 2% where it belongs.


GVI Trading john bland  16:00:13 GMT - 10/07/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDP forecast for3Q16 2.1% vs 2.2% on Oct 5.

Source: TTN


GVI Trading john bland  15:08:45 GMT - 10/07/2016  
Odds for a December rate hike 67% unchanged from Late Thursday.


Barna 10:38:34 GMT - 10/07/2016  
Great info, thanks guys...


GVI Trading john bland  09:34:19 GMT - 10/07/2016  
EMAIL If you would like to join (free) our Pre-Employment conference call at 11:00-11:30 GMT.

1.

Amazing Trader charts updated on your systems


kl fs  09:23:48 GMT - 10/07/2016  
even with reassuring words, who is going to hold it into the weekend


GVI Trading john bland  09:21:11 GMT - 10/07/2016  
disappointing UK output data 45mins ago could be weighing on GBP into the weekend. I imagine many are taking a low-profile after the overnight price action.

Don't be surprised if we get some reassuring words from the BOE on the pound at some point today.


GVI Trading john bland  08:10:29 GMT - 10/07/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
7-Oct Fri
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 CA/US- Employment

9-Oct Sun
21:00 US- Presidential Debate
10-Oct Mon
00:00 JP/CA/US (partial) Holiday
11-Oct Tue
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12-Oct Wed
18:00 US- Fed Minutes
13-Oct Thu
11:00 GB- BOE Decison
15:00 US- EIA Crude
14-Oct Fri
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich


Trading Themes--
  • Overnight trading hes seen a "flash crash" in the GBP. Some are blaming "Brexit", but the root problem clearly is a lack of liquidity in a over-regulated quiet market. We are still picking up the pieces.

  • U.S. jobs data today could be decisive for the Fed policy decision in mid-December. Keep in mind there will be one more jobs reading (November) before then. Markets are jockeying for position ahead of U.S. employment data Friday. Street estimates are for a gain of about 170K in the month after the +151K advance in August. Any reading of roughly around +150K or above should keep a December rate hike in the frame.

  • Wednesday saw a big surprise in the U.S. ISM Service PMI, which saw a much stronger than expected headline number of 57.1 vs. 51.4 in August. Furthermore, the employment sub-component was strong (57.2 vs. 50.7). It can often (NOT always!) presage NFP. This item suggests we could see a strong NFP report Friday.

  • ECB VP Constancio said a report earlier in the week that ECB is near tapering its QE is wrong. He said QE would continue until inflation is back on target. The initial report at the time struck me as being premature.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets



GVI Trading john bland  21:38:53 GMT - 10/06/2016  
EMAIL If you would like a join (free) our daily conference call at 11:00-11:30 GMT.

1.

Odds of a rate hike by year-end 37% vs 69% late Wednesday 20-day avg 1.1209 Pivot 1.1165


GVI Trading john bland  20:40:33 GMT - 10/06/2016  
cb- Thanks.


dc CB  20:21:42 GMT - 10/06/2016  
10-Oct Mon
00:00 JP/CA/US Holiday

FYI in the US it's only a Bank Holiday. Stock markets are Open


GVI Trading john bland  19:48:37 GMT - 10/06/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
7-Oct Fri
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 CA/US- Employment

9-Oct Sun
21:00 US- Presidential Debate
10-Oct Mon
00:00 JP/CA/US Holiday
11-Oct Tue
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12-Oct Wed
18:00 US- Fed Minutes
13-Oct Thu
11:00 GB- BOE Decison
15:00 US- EIA Crude
14-Oct Fri
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich


Trading Themes--
  • Markets are jockeying for position ahead of U.S. employment data Friday. Street estimates are for a gain of about 170K in the month after the +151K advance in August. Any reading of roughly around +150K or above should keep a December rate hike in the frame.

  • Wednesday saw a big surprise in the U.S. ISM Service PMI, which saw a much stronger than expected headline number of 57.1 vs. 51.4 in August. Furthermore, the employment sub-component was strong (57.2 vs. 50.7). It can often (NOT always!) presage NFP. This item suggests we could see a strong NFP report Friday.

  • ECB VP Constancio said a report earlier in the week that ECB is near tapering its QE is wrong. He said QE would continue until inflation is back on target. The initial report at the time struck me as being premature.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com







Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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