JP-Kuroda has a great sense of humour....he is still convinced they will spark some inflation in Japan from QE
Mtl JP 12:25:21 GMT - 10/21/2016
Tenous = genious
Mtl JP 12:23:44 GMT - 10/21/2016
Numnuts Kuroda for Nobel's "tenuous" of economics prize
And some folks think that Trump is an awkward humour dinner party guest...
GVI Trading john bland 10:53:38 GMT - 10/21/2016
-- will continue extremely accomodative expansive monetary policy
-- expect monetary base to exceed 100% of economy in coming year
dc CB 21:35:31 GMT - 10/20/2016
I am concerned that the appointment for Treasury Secretary offers either a great opportunity or a lost one or in one case would create a future problem.
The latter, obviously, is Larry Summers who is an extra bright version of Donald Rumsfeld, arrogantly unpleasant to his subordinates, dismissive to his equals and pandering to his superiors. I spent some time with Neil Rudenstine on Wednesday, and he would use even stronger terms ......
I think the one person with global credibility is Paul Volcker and credibility is as useful a currency as cash for addressing our problems and perhaps even rarer. He was at my house for election eve and did not object to my forwarding his name, but, properly, will not seek it directly.
The answer to the age issue, putting aside that he is demonstrably very active, would be to appoint Tim Geithner as deputy with the clear understanding, but not commitment, that he would succeed in a year or two. Geithner was at my house for dinner last spring with Paul, Felix, Henry Kissinger and a few others to discuss the situation as it then existed, and I was impressed with him, but he seemed a little young (that may be a reflection on me not him) so a few years of seasoning would not be a bad thing. I have talked to John Whitehead, Felix Rohatyn and Joe Flom about this, and they have authorized me to say that they fully support it.
Bob Pirie, founder of Skadden Arps, November 7, 2008
EARLIER: 2Q16 China GDP in line with street estimates.
Livingston nh 21:39:00 GMT - 10/18/2016
JP - FIE on goodness FIE - it's not the earth the meek inherit; its the dirt
Vlad will learn
Mtl JP 21:33:04 GMT - 10/18/2016
nh u forgot to honor mention Vladimir (TIME mags Peacemaker Man of the Year lol)
Livingston nh 21:03:24 GMT - 10/18/2016
CRUDE - let's see -- 2 things -- OPEC having a problem ahead of the MEETING can't agree on Production (IRAN IRAQ and VZ) and N. Amer drillers coming back // so wk to wk moves can't change LT SUPPLY ( the PROBLEM)
fs, that could change in a blink of an eye
SFH, mug's game. i like that
LONDON SFH 09:10:20 GMT - 10/18/2016
fs-yes i think we are close to a temporary bottom...more talk on Brexit could resume selling tho'
Stable for now as this court case rumbles on but as I read on 1 commentary this morning trading Sterling right now is somewhat a "mug's game"
kl fs 09:05:07 GMT - 10/18/2016
SFH, downside is over for now for cable you reckon? seems stabilising and slight upside bias
LONDON SFH 08:59:23 GMT - 10/18/2016
bali sja 08:55 GMT 10/18/2016
We are at 2% RPI now.....when the FX devaluation comes in we are looking at inflation headlines of 3-4% or more this time next year. 70% of economist forecasting rate cuts from the BOE.....theyve all lost their textbooks and have become headless chickens....Or just idiots
bali sja 08:55:49 GMT - 10/18/2016
Carney has clearly said BOE will tolerate some inflation overshoot
GVI Trading john bland 08:33:29 GMT - 10/18/2016
UK inflation hotter than expected. GBP initially spikes higher.
Fischer made clear, despite all the rhetoric, that the Fed is relying on the mythical unknowable R* and he takes his cue from the markets not data dependent (see Fed Funds at prior times when the "preferred" inflation rate was at these levels and unemployment was at 5%) -- and he, like Yellen, was worried about recession issues
GVI Trading john bland 21:46:58 GMT - 10/17/2016
New Zealand 3Q16 CPI
-- ALERT --
QQ: +0.20% vs. +0.00% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
YY: +0.20% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
..."Now, I am sure that the reaction of many of you may be, "Well, if you and your Fed colleagues dislike low interest rates, why not just go ahead and raise them? You are the Federal Reserve, after all." One of my goals today is to convince you that it is not that simple, and that changes in factors over which the Federal Reserve has little influence--such as technological innovation and demographics--are important factors contributing to both short- and long-term interest rates being so low at present.
There are at least three reasons why we should be concerned about such low interest rates. First...
Hillary's "excellent health" medical statement, where once again the media, listed as "AP, Politico, WSJ, WaPo, etc" is exposed as coordinating and colluding with the campaign to send a message that Hillary is in great health.
In the email written in the early hours on Friday, Fallon writes that in the "rollout plan" for that same day, the campaign will "Pitch the first round of stories to the travelling press corps (AP, Politico, WSJ, WaPo, etc) with a 2 pm embargo."
He goes on to say that for these stories "we will provide the full text of HRC’s physician’s letter, summarizing that she is in excellent health and is medically fit to perform the duties of President. We will push that she is the FIRST presidential candidate to release this info."
In further evidence of the prepared media narrative, Fallon points out that "we expect the stories that pop at 2 pm to have headlines such as “CLINTON IN ‘EXCELLENT HEALTH,’ MEDICAL RECORDS SAY” … “CLINTON RELEASES HEALTH REPORT."
During a campaign rally Saturday in New Hampshire, the GOP presidential nominee compared himself and Clinton to athletes.
"Athletes, they make them take a drug test, right. I think we should take a drug test prior to the debate," Trump said.
"Why don't we do that? We should take a drug test, prior, because I don't know what's going on with her, but at the beginning of her last debate, she was all pumped up at the beginning, and at the end it was like, 'Oh, take me down,' " Trump said, imitating Clinton.
15:38 (US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): expects Fed's next rate rise this year; expects rate rise relatively soon
- Fed has not faced urgency to raise rates- a rate rise is not aimed at slowing the economy- there's big uncertainty over outlook limits guidance the Fed can give
- US likely to grow 2-2.5%; inflation to 2% within 2 years
- Source TradeTheNews.com
dc CB 18:54:15 GMT - 10/14/2016
The press conference started moments ago and here are the highlights: Inappropriate Sexual Conduct With Apprentice Contestant
GLORIA ALLRED BEGINS NEWS CONFERENCE ON TRUMP ACCUSATION
ALLRED TRUMP ENGAGED IN INAPPROPRIATE SEXUAL CONDUCT
ALLRED: SUMMER ZERVOS IS PERSON ALLEGING TRUMP MISCONDUCT
ZERVOS SAYS SHE SAW TRUMP AS MENTOR, POSSIBLE EMPLOYER
ZERVOS SAYS TRUMP KISSED HER ON THE LIPS TWICE AT MEETING
dc CB 17:38:20 GMT - 10/14/2016
john bland 17:36 GMT
--high pressure policy may need for full recovery from crisis.
Translation: the FireHose, but we will call it something other than QE this time.
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 17:37:32 GMT - 10/14/2016
13:30 (US) Fed Chair Yellen: high pressure policy may be needed for full recovery from crisis - comments in Boston
- may want to be extra-accommodative in recoveries
- maintaining accommodation for too long may have costs; costs may include financial instability and inflation
- crisis may have permanently damaged output, forcing policymakers to prepare more aggressive and faster action in future downturn
- more explicit guidance may be needed given that interest rates may stay low for some time and low rates alone may not be adequate to trigger growth in another recession
- policymakers need a better grasp of causes of crises; further studies needed to decide how the labor market conditions influence inflation
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Trading john bland 17:36:03 GMT - 10/14/2016
--high pressure policy may need for full recovery from crisis
PAR I think of China as this great big take over company, a sort of mega multi national company buying the world. For now. The idea is what? One big world, one big company, one big economy and no choices for the likes of us. Same old, same old.
Paris ib 16:43:43 GMT - 10/14/2016
nh.... that's the theory isn't it? And yes they can print and say save the Treasury market in theory but if they did that there is no way they can save the USD. So they have to hope that foreign investors DON'T start unloading Treasuries otherwise the USD goes the way of the GBP, with all the consequences... negative and positive.
Mtl JP 16:32:23 GMT - 10/14/2016
john I argue(d) that one of the biggest scoring Qs in interviewing for FED position is not some wizardry w/math modeling but communication skills , ability to propagandize and to carry lies.
GVI Trading john bland 16:24:57 GMT - 10/14/2016
JP- you give them to much credit! They would have to know what they were doing to play with us. LOL
Mtl JP 16:17:00 GMT - 10/14/2016
john they are NOT in lala land.
They ARE toying w/u.
PAR16:14:55 GMT - 10/14/2016
Do like France , whenever a French company runs into trouble it is sold to a Chinese (state? ) company .
GVI Trading16:05:59 GMT - 10/14/2016
German govt rules out state help for Deutsche Bank.
Officials: state support "inconceivable"
-- wire report
GVI Trading john bland 16:02:22 GMT - 10/14/2016
I stated earlier that Fed officials such as Rosengren are in La-La-Land.
Fed poised to tighten as the economy slows.
GVI Trading john bland 16:00:50 GMT - 10/14/2016
Atlanta latest GDPNow forecast 1.90% vs. 2.10% on 10/7
Livingston nh 15:34:24 GMT - 10/14/2016
RE: debt - any government that PRINTS its currency can always pay debt -- sovereign debt is just currency with a coiupon
Paris ib 15:27:24 GMT - 10/14/2016
One thing though, this little achilles heel might just prevent WWIII. So it's not all bad news. :-)
"Washington may be forced to renege on its huge debt to Beijing under catastrophic circumstances, says the former head of the Bank of England Mervyn King. He suggests governments could mitigate risk by diversifying their assets.
“Who knows what the future holds, but China and other countries do not want to be in a situation where all their international assets are in effect dependent on the US,” said King, who was the Governor of the Bank of England"....
This was published in RT, so maybe a bit of a political agenda there. But if Lord King said it I guess you have to take notice. Doesn't appear that the Chinese did take notice though. :-)
Not indifferent just powerless but he's gotta say at least he noticed. Yeah too bad about that. Not much I can do. I'll get back to you when I notice the market has settled. Thanks for listening...
Bali Sja 14:56:09 GMT - 10/14/2016
He is using reverse psychology. He is happy with gbp falling for he does not need to do everything w.r.t brexit. Market takes care of itself for him to sit comfortably
GVI Trading john bland 14:53:50 GMT - 10/14/2016
ib- agree. No idea what he meant on GBP, but I passed along the comment anyway. I figured he must have been expressing some discontent with the falling exchange rate, but I wasn't positive?
Paris ib 14:50:27 GMT - 10/14/2016
Does Carney think these types of nonsense comments earn his wages?
GVI Trading john bland 14:49:23 GMT - 10/14/2016
-- Not indifferent on GBP, but no magic number on exchange rate.
-- Uncertainty having macroeconomic impact.
Paris ib 14:47:21 GMT - 10/14/2016
"China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell in July to their lowest since early 2013 as official ownership of U.S. government debt declined for a fourth straight month, data from the U.S. Treasury Department showed on Friday.
China, which remained the bigger U.S. creditor, owned $1.219 trillion of U.S. government debt in July. This was the lowest level since $1.214 trillion in January 2013."
Rote learning will only get you so far. You'd think they'd have learned that rote learning doesn't really work in the real world. Makes obedient citizens but that's about all. That's what tripped the Mandarins up way back when.... Confucian poetry has limited applications.
Rosengren says Fed Funds Futures ~70% odds on a December rate hike are "about right".
GVI Trading john bland 11:37:28 GMT - 10/14/2016
Rosengren has been drinking the Kool-Aide.
GVI Trading john bland 11:36:29 GMT - 10/14/2016
Boston Fed President Rosengren:
-- Close to full employment
-- inflation close to target
GVI Trading john bland 10:59:37 GMT - 10/14/2016
-- forecast for BOE rate cut moved from November to February
-- Maintains expectation of additional asset purchases of £50B in 2017
-- Believes BOE follows weaker data rather than act pre-emptively
GVI Trading john bland 07:53:12 GMT - 10/14/2016
China CPI Septmber 2016
Earlier News Alert
CPI yy: +1.90% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.
-- 74% of economists see Fed hike in December
-- 20% odds of a recession im 2017
-- 59% odds of recession in next four years
Haifa ac 13:51:47 GMT - 10/13/2016
Podesta is a small potatoe
the list so far is very dmaging--but will all be swept under the rag by a totally supportive media
Hacked WikiLeaks emails show concerns about Clinton candidacy, email server
By Abby Phillip and John Wagner October 12 at 11:38 PM
WikiLeaks released yet another batch of hacked emails from inside Hillary Clinton’s campaign Wednesday, and with them came another round of embarrassing headlines and new glimpses of internal anxiety over the candidate’s weaknesses
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS WHAT WE HEAR DAILY FROM WASHINGTON ABOUT RUSSIAN HACKERS IS A LIE
GVI Trading john bland 12:45:17 GMT - 10/13/2016
I see no impact from Matthew on data. Claims were dead flat (after revisions from a week earlier. We should see a jump in next week's data. Weekly jobless claims have not been telling us much for several years now. It may be a product of the persistently flat economy.
EARLIER China Trade surplus Misses. y/y exports fall by -10.0% y/y.
dc CB 21:21:37 GMT - 10/12/2016
Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) announced today that Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf has informed the Company’s Board of Directors that he is retiring from the Company and the Board, effective immediately
Dudley and the Shell Game -- labor slack at 5%? he should see continued claims every Thursday // inflation (core PCE) at 1.7%? see a 20 yr chart and look for 2% // there are no peas in this game
GVI Trading john bland 13:04:53 GMT - 10/12/2016
Dudley sounding cautiously dovish.
LONDON SFH 13:04:33 GMT - 10/12/2016
On the day the Courts hear the case that it is against the law to trigger Article 50 without a Parliamentary vote, the Government feels it is necessary to comment on their view....their timing and record since coming into power has been impecably poor
Cable down to the lows again on Davis's comments...good job...Give the guy a raise
GVI Trading john bland 13:04:16 GMT - 10/12/2016
NY Fed Dudley
-- inflation a little below our target
-- would like to see rates rise as economy strengthens
-- One reason to be cautious on rate hikes is uncertainty about labor slack.
LONDON SFH 13:03:42 GMT - 10/12/2016
*DAVIS SAYS U.K. IS GOING FOR A `BRITISH OPTION' ON BREXIT.....how stupid are the guys PM May has in charge of the exit strategy!?
GVI Trading john bland 13:00:13 GMT - 10/12/2016
GBP lower on Brexit headline
GVI Trading john bland 12:59:35 GMT - 10/12/2016
Brexit Minister Davis:
-- No one will be able to veto referendum result
-- government will decide when to trigger Article 50
PAR09:24:19 GMT - 10/12/2016
Markets went from Hard Brexit to Soft Brexit .
May is getting scared by falling pound and huge deficits .
LONDON SFH 09:18:11 GMT - 10/12/2016
Well it isn't up to him is it....court case starts today on that issue so best he waits until then before opening his mouth and potentially embarrassing himself...
GVI Trading john bland 09:13:23 GMT - 10/12/2016
UK PM spokesman:
-- there will NOT be a vote on triggering Article 50. Earlier PM May offered Parliament a vote on her Brexit plan.
Bali Sja 16:58:29 GMT - 10/11/2016
As i saidbefore those going short usd was completely frog-boiled as in the case of cable
GVI Trading john bland 15:55:11 GMT - 10/11/2016
Kashkari has political ambitions.
GVI Trading john bland 15:54:18 GMT - 10/11/2016
- U.S. should act soon to end too big to fail banks
-- No urgency on rates with inflation undershooting
GVI Trading john bland 15:41:35 GMT - 10/11/2016
Special OPEC Meeting set for Oct 28-29 in Vienna to set framework for implementing output cut.
GVI Trading john bland 10:11:35 GMT - 10/11/2016
Earlier ZEW survey beats
GVI Trading john bland 10:10:59 GMT - 10/11/2016
German ZEW Survey October 2016
Current Situation: vs. +55.4 exp. vs. +55.1 prev.
Economic Expectations: vs. +3.50 exp. vs. +0.50 prev.
Democrats expected the FBI investigation into Clinton's email server to be a major problem—which Donald Trump solved
It was in the best interest of Clinton, and therefore the Democratic Party, that Trump was the Republican presidential nominee. Polls indicated Sen. Rubio, Gov. Kasich, or almost any other establishment Republican would likely beat Clinton in a general election. Even Cruz, who is reviled by most Republicans, would still maintain the ability to rally the Republican Party—especially its wealthy donors—around his candidacy.
All the Clinton campaign had to do was push the mainstream media in the general direction of covering and attacking Trump as though he was the star of the Republican presidential primaries. As the presumed Democratic nominee, whomever she decided to dignify by responding to—whether the comments were directed at her or not—would be presumed to be the spokesperson, or nominee, of the Republican Party.
“Clinton, Trump trade insults as rhetoric heats up between front-runners,” read the headline from a CNN article in September 2015. “Hillary Clinton Seizes On Donald Trump’s Remarks to Galvanize Women,” read a New York Times headline from December. Several media outlets criticized the mainstream media obsession with Trump, but despite a few concerns that the media was propping up his legitimacy as a candidate with their constant news coverage, it continued unabatedly.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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