The Fed appears to have been successful in convincing the markets that a policy tightening is in the works by year-end. Odds are now about 2 in 3 that rates will be marked higher, and the yield on the 10-yr note has risen to 1.77% +4bp in anticipation of a U.S. policy normalization. This sentiment has given the USD a lift.
September U.S. Jobs data on Friday were soft, but not a disaster. This is a cautious Fed. Markets are indicating that the Fed will try to plow ahead with a rate hike in December, but it still will need solid October and November jobs data.
As for the U.S. Presidential election contest, it seems the Republican party leadership are seeing it as a lost cause are are focusing now on salvaging the House and Senate races.
A trader at a top European bank Monday warned about "phantom liquidity" in the forex markets, especially in the Far East. He said the "flash crash" in the GBP was a red flag. His firm had been warning about "phantom liquidity" before the event. He said recently there has been 60% more volatility with the same trading volume than in the past.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
GVI Trading john bland 20:22:22 GMT - 10/10/2016
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As expected, Monday saw restrained trading activity. There did not appear to be much market reaction to the Presidential debate Sunday evening which was a nasty affair. Only German ZEW sentiment survey data are due on Tuesday.
A trader at a top European bank Monday warned about "phantom liquidity" in the forex markets, especially in the Far East. He said the "flash crash" in the GBP was a red flag. His firm had been warning about "phantom liquidity" before the event. He said recently there has been 60% more volatility with the same trading volume than in the past.
September U.S. Jobs data on Friday were soft, but not a disaster. Payrolls increased +156K, below expectations for a gain of 175K. This is a cautious Fed. They could still would like to plow ahead with a rate hike in December, but first will need solid October and November jobs data.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
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