Trading activity appears to be modestly subdued due to holiday observances. The economic calendar is light again until later in the day when the Minutes from the latest Fed meeting are released.
The Minutes often are often shaped to reflect the current thinking of the bank, so they often are new news and can move the markets.
U.S. interest rates continue to rise with the yield on the 10-yr note a key focus. Higher interest U.S. have been a weight on shares and have given the USD a boost. The Fed appears to have finally been successful in convincing the markets that a policy tightening by year-end is likely.
The GBP has bounced back sharply today on word PM May is offering Parliament a chance to vote on her Brexit plan. It is not a vote on Brexit itself.
As for the U.S. Presidential election contest, it seems the Republican party leadership sees it as a lost cause are are focusing now on trying to salvage the House and Senate races.
Trading activity should be subdued Wednesday in some key locations by Yom Kippur observances. Otherwise, the economic calendar is relatively light. One major release is the Minutes from the latest Fed meeting.
U.S. interest rates continued to rise Tuesday with the 10-yr note breaking through the 1.75% line (1.757% last). Higher interest U.S. rates were a weight on shares, which fell. Rising interest rates also gave the USD a boost. The Fed appears to have been successful for now in convincing the markets that a policy tightening is in the works by year-end. Odds are now about 2 in 3 that rates will be marked higher.
The GBP continues to fall. It has tumbled by nearly 20% singe just before "Brexit" was approved by the voters. The latest fall was triggered by Brexit Secretary Davis, who said the falling currency would provide a boost to exporters. In the early 1990's, a sharply weaker GBP gave the economy a major boost without igniting inflation.
September U.S. Jobs data on Friday were soft, but not a disaster. This is a cautious Fed. Markets are indicating that the Fed will try to plow ahead with a rate hike in December, but it still will need solid October and November jobs data.
As for the U.S. Presidential election contest, it seems the Republican party leadership are seeing it as a lost cause are are focusing now on salvaging the House and Senate races.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com
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Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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