U.K. COMMONS TO HOLD BREXIT DEBATE ON MONDAY NOV 7
london red 09:31:56 GMT - 10/27/2016
JP bar servs, nothing really contributed to gdp, some parts even negative. capital spending is likely to be a drag for revs so likely as gd as it will get for q3. even so id like to see topside stops done as they can often hinder downside progress. and something else to keep in mind youve got some promising tech for eurgbp gains nearterm as well as poss month end flows which usually sup that cross.
Mtl JP 09:27:23 GMT - 10/27/2016
impressive amount of gbp sellers after the reaction to a stellar GDP
london red 09:17:18 GMT - 10/27/2016
art 50 quite clearly states that the nation declaring its intent to leave will remain a member for 2 years unless agreed upon to extend by all other members. this means there will be 2 years from art 50 being triggered. as for negotiations, it will be done via a qualified majority as per arti 238(3)(b) of the treaty. qualified majority is understands as 72% of the members of the council comprising at least 65% of the population of the union.
nobody is saying agreements will be easy to come by, hence the uncertainty will pull dwn sterling. but as always mkts will price in the worse and overshoot.just take crude as an example. it will be much the same.
LONDON SFH 08:58:24 GMT - 10/27/2016
I think you need to look at Article 50 and what it means....no one has ever triggered it and whilst they write in a 2y period (or more) the process has never been tested. Do you believe all 28 EU states can ratify whatever deal they manage to draw up over over 2yrs? How long does that take,.,,,when Latvia, for example say no then its back to the drawing board and the process starts again. There will ALWAYS be something someone doesn't agree with when you discuss the whole of the EU and its laws. Wallonia has a population of around 3.5m and has scuppered a trade deal for 350m people....a tall order is the biggest understatement since Trump got called sexist
london red 08:45:31 GMT - 10/27/2016
brexit guarandamnteed. dont doubt it. just a question of when. mps will vote on ratification but not on the triggering of the process. art 50 will be tripped next spring and the count down begins...its a tall orda to get it done it 2 years so sterling will suffer but will bottom b4 we see light at end of tunnel. anywhere from parity to 1.10 gud for lt but dont park the cash in gilts at that time.
PAR08:41:34 GMT - 10/27/2016
Good news as UK is big contributor to EU budget . The longer they stay in the better .
Paris ib 08:39:36 GMT - 10/27/2016
SFH - Whoa!! Now that's worth thinking about.
LONDON SFH 08:33:13 GMT - 10/27/2016
If Wallonia can scuper the EU-Canada Trade deal, there is no way that all 28 EU states will ratify a Brexit deal....even if it has taken 2yrs or more to find an agreement. That means we could find 5yrs down the line the UK is still an EU member.
So Sterling is just boosting the economy at the expense of the EU
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