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Mtl JP  15:33:40 GMT - 10/28/2016  
dc CB suggest just watch usdcad price action....
quicker signal than any "news" release by the OPEC collective that hits your computer that u have to additionally decipher whether to buy or sell


dc CB  15:18:02 GMT - 10/28/2016  
your daily Oil BS headline....Spike...LOL

OPEC EXPERTS YET TO AGREE ON DETAILS OF OIL OUTPUT REDUCTION PLAN, IRAN OPPOSES - RTRS


london red  14:13:56 GMT - 10/28/2016  
yield spread moved on a bit and helping euro. think needs to trigger stops overextend then may instill fresh interest to sell.


Mtl JP  14:12:10 GMT - 10/28/2016  
when eurdlr can't rally it
a) languishes or
b) goes South

still keeping robot to look to sell only.
ditto usdcad: BoD


london red  12:21:39 GMT - 10/28/2016  
if gdp beats well us 10 shud outperform bund to downside ie. bigger losses for the us. thats what will drive euro lower (also for yen). a miss shud maintain the bund outperformance and so sup euro. currently us 10 just making its move to downside over bund last few mins.


london red  12:12:34 GMT - 10/28/2016  
euro at 200hma for third time this week unable to close abv on either of the first two occasions. hourly close abv would suggest upside but stops over 10947 likely to be tripped before hourly close next res at 10967-75 then expect fades ahead of 11040. downside barriers at 10850 and 108 with sup also seen at 10810/20. those are the battle lines, mkt is complacent on most front so expect large ranges and moves to stick if gdp surprises up or dwn.


london red  12:05:16 GMT - 10/28/2016  
little guy helping the little guy as it shud be JP


Paris ib  12:00:21 GMT - 10/28/2016  
You taking a shot at me JP? Please.


Mtl JP  11:56:46 GMT - 10/28/2016  
red 11:51 ur generosity, kindness and tolerance are remarkable


london red  11:51:19 GMT - 10/28/2016  
said it yest ib, theres always end of month for that pair and gd sup to work off at that time


london red  11:47:19 GMT - 10/28/2016  
gdp good or bad, one thing for certain them eod euro straddles are priced too low. either or (or maybe both) 10850 10967-75 guarandamnteed today. currently about 35 pips a steal.


Paris ib  11:46:54 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Hindsight Harry red


Livingston nh  11:45:56 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Today may be a good day for Housecleaning, especially if we see some spikes // next week will have a Fed/NFP combo so adjustment time seems today -- Cable below 1.21 again is attractive level to trim shorts for fear of a squeeze, Aussie coming back towards support in its recent range and oil may spike USD/CAD above 1.3450 // EM has been VERY sensitive to rising yields the past days so next week CBs and data could make this worse

Choppy stox this week has seen volume increasing each day -- my take on US GDP will be governed by Nominal GDP because the Deflator is still a good broad indicator of "lumpy" inflation (Treasurys reaction)


london red  11:45:33 GMT - 10/28/2016  
ib time to buy eurgbp was yest, question for today is hold or sell? do we bust 9025 or not if yes then it will likely close abv there, if not its poss pair will lose all of todays gains.


GVI Trading john bland  11:41:20 GMT - 10/28/2016  
PLEASE BE AWARE

GDP forecasts by the professional economists are all over the map. No result would surprise me. There are also technical reasons in the manner it is calculated that always can distort the data either way.

Bottom line, the market is going to react to the headline announcement. but personally I have no confidence either way in anyone's forecast. They seem to range from an annualized +1.50% to 3.50%.


Paris ib  11:37:40 GMT - 10/28/2016  
So sell those bonds. If they get the growth they get the rate hike.


Paris ib  11:36:57 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Ok red so do you buy or sell EURGBP here?


PAR 11:35:07 GMT - 10/28/2016  
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy could top 3% growth in the third quarter for the first time in two in a half years owing to stronger exports, steady consumer spending and an increase in restocking at warehouse shelves.


london red  11:29:17 GMT - 10/28/2016  
never a better day than a friday to make a killing. id say more than 50% of my gains in dollar terms will have come on fridays. when panic sets in, folk dont think straight and thats when u shud thrive.


london red  11:25:42 GMT - 10/28/2016  
usually when mkt breaks it will run stops other sider first. id like to see euro move a bit higher on german inflation and on a 3% gdp shud then finish that particular hour no higher than 10886. as re options there are 1.5 yards at both 108 and 10875-85 also nearly 1.5 at 10940-50 if number soft.


Paris ib  11:22:43 GMT - 10/28/2016  
If you're bored it might perk up your Friday. :-)


Paris ib  11:21:09 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Yeah so buy EUR/GBP rather than sell the range. But it's Friday. I don't like the risk reward at all.


london red  11:21:02 GMT - 10/28/2016  
regulations and hft means trading certain mkts no longer a banker for banks. hence the staff reductions and exits. it makes for more volatility which is good news for the patience and disciplined retail trader.


Mtl JP  11:18:21 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Paris ib 11:14 for some / many it is exactly "high volatility situation" in which to trade.
market is going to trade with or without you.


Paris ib  11:17:44 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Which is why they are firing all their staff and closing down their proprietary trading desks. No, I don't think so.


PAR 11:16:13 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Imho banks trading desks and trading computers are front running ECB and FED trading and getting plenty rich doing so. They no longer need customers they just make money trading on inside info from FED and ECB .


Paris ib  11:14:39 GMT - 10/28/2016  
You like risk you can sell it. But I wouldn't. We are entering a high volatility situation. Think about it. Geopolitics. Ugly stuff. U.S. election. Certainly not better. Brexit can go anywhere and nowhere. And then we have South China seas....


london red  11:12:24 GMT - 10/28/2016  
draghi reversal came in around 9025, so thats a key lvl. as i mentioned yest the cross is subject to end of month buying and coupled with the NI court decision today, there havent been many reasons to buy gbp thus far. it will need a poor us gdp to avoid a close under 12080/90.


Mtl JP  11:08:46 GMT - 10/28/2016  
8997 eurgbp close to round number
any trade ideas ? tia


Paris ib  11:08:36 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Oops. Wrong link. Sergey Aleynikov was accused of stealing software from Goldman which had the potential to ramp markets... reportedly.

Sergey



Paris ib  11:05:28 GMT - 10/28/2016  
The French have a particular breed of cretins who are really in their own league. The priesthood. Big time.

The Goldman Software



GVI Trading john bland  11:04:01 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Equities Mixed:
DAX -25
DJ +22
SP +4

10-yr 1.852% +0.7bp


Mtl JP  11:03:14 GMT - 10/28/2016  
"Procrastination and forbearance have not served the euro area well."

asserted little earlier chief economic cretin

Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy in a low-growth environment



GVI Trading john bland  09:52:27 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


Amazing Trader charts updated on your systems


GVI Trading john bland  09:34:01 GMT - 10/28/2016  
Mixed Equities:
DAX -42
DJ +6
SP +2

10-yr 1.8547% +0.9bp


london red  08:44:16 GMT - 10/28/2016  
eod straddle for euro about 40 pips. if us gdp beats thats too small - euro will break 10850 barrier and test 10810/20 on a 3% gdp. topside 10967/75 tested on a miss.
can use better german cpi to set up one arm of straddle and covering arm ahead of us gdp where euro shud give up any gains pre print. optimal option trigger zones 30-40 and 10-20 while naked euro sell 30-40 tgt 10850 10820 stop 52.


london red  08:28:36 GMT - 10/28/2016  
add german cpi to that list, seems will beat slightly as regionals coming in better or as f/c all morning.


GVI Trading john bland  08:15:42 GMT - 10/28/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
23:30 JP- CPI
28-Oct Fri
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan
30-Oct Sun
00:00 EZ/GB Clocks turn back one hour


Trading Themes--
  • Today has seen bond yields remain at elevated levels into the release of preliminary U.S. 3Q16 GDP. Fixed Income markets have started to worry that interest rates might not remain at near-zero levels forever. Equity and forex markets are nervous as a result.

  • Friday sees U.S. preliminary 3Q16 GDP. Following September Advance Trade data Wednesday, CNBC said its tracking of private GDP estimates (due Friday) have been raised substantially to 3%+ from about 2.5%. The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 3Q16 GDP Thursday was 2.10% from 2.00% on October 19.

  • Thursday saw the first estimate for 3Q16 UK GDP. This was first broad snapshot of how the economy has performed since the Brexit passage vote. GDP grew by +0.5% vs. estimates for +0.3%. This was another nail in the coffin for a BOE rate cut in the near term. Gilt yields closed at 1.257% +10.8bp.

  • Markets continue to try to reconcile the prospects for a Fed policy tightening in December with Yellen's new notion of a high-pressure economy. Odds are the Fed will hike rates before putting policy on hold again for most of 2017. Fed Funds futures have zeroed in on roughly 70% odds (69%) on a rate hike. It looks to me like the hawks and doves have reached a deal. The hawks get a December token rate hike in return for the doves getting a steady monetary policy next year.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off



dc CB  20:49:09 GMT - 10/27/2016  
Bezos Bombs
AMZN down $40 after earnings


dc CB  20:45:24 GMT - 10/27/2016  
zerohedge @zerohedge
Ever since the SEC started looking into Goldman's EOD ETF rebal, the ramp is gone. Strange
3:02 PM - 27 Oct 2016

meaning the 3:30 to 4PM SToX Rampolooza


Mtl JP  20:22:24 GMT - 10/27/2016  
re "fixed income markets got a pre-Halloween fright that interest rates might not remain at near-zero levels forever."

how about maybe some players realize that inflation numbers pumped out by officialdom are bullsh!t instead ?

If that is the case janet and her gang would have one h3ll of a problem of credibility. Could raise the qtn of who is ultimately bigger: the FED gang or the market. Exit doors could become both rather narrow and rare.

Captain Blood - Errol Flynn 1935 movie - quipped: "forewarned is forearmed" in an enduring bit of life's wisdom.


GVI Trading john bland  20:07:41 GMT - 10/27/2016  
Register for the Amazing Trader

1.



GVI Trading john bland  19:41:15 GMT - 10/27/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
23:30 JP- CPI
28-Oct Fri
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan
30-Oct Sun
00:00 RZ/GB Clocks turn back one hour


Trading Themes--
  • Thursday saw bond yields back-up across the board as fixed income markets got a pre-Halloween fright that interest rates might not remain at near-zero levels forever. Equity and forex markets were closing mixed and nervous on the day.

  • Friday sees U.S. preliminary 3Q16 GDP. Following September Advance Trade data Wednesday, CNBC said its tracking of private GDP estimates (due Friday) have been raised substantially to 3%+ from about 2.5%. The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 3Q16 GDP Thursday was 2.10% from 2.00% on October 19.

  • Thursday saw the first estimate for 3Q16 UK GDP. This was first broad snapshot of how the economy has performed since the Brexit passage vote. GDP grew by +0.5% vs. estimates for +0.3%. This was another nail in the coffin for a BOE rate cut in the near term. Gilt yields closed at 1.257% +10.8bp.

  • Markets continue to try to reconcile the prospects for a Fed policy tightening in December with Yellen's new notion of a high-pressure economy. Odds are the Fed will hike rates before putting policy on hold again for most of 2017. Fed Funds futures have zeroed in on roughly 70% odds (69%) on a rate hike. It looks to me like the hawks and doves have reached a deal. The hawks get a December token rate hike in return for the doves getting a steady monetary policy next year.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Msarkets






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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
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C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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