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GVI Trading john bland  18:14:20 GMT - 11/02/2016  
10yr 1.788%, -3.4bp
S&P 2100, -12

no changes



Livingston nh  17:41:37 GMT - 11/02/2016  
JP - back now re: your gap post -----

Livingston nh 13:59 GMT September 14, 2016
STOXic??: Reply
SPX Resting JP's 100dma - 2100 is Primary GAP below w/ large gaps above - who gets filled first? 2100 been out there longer -- 2040 SPX was a JP favorite a while back and a goodly gap there again
______________

Everything comes to those who wait (of course, the guy who wrote that didn't have carry costs in mind)


GVI Trading john bland  17:35:16 GMT - 11/02/2016  
Pre Fed
10-yr 1.790% -3.2bp
S&P 2100, -12


GVI Trading john bland  17:25:24 GMT - 11/02/2016  
S&P just hit
2093 emini
2098 Cash


dc CB  15:45:09 GMT - 11/02/2016  
Gold and Silver, which normally get whacked pre FOMC to "save Yellen face", are off to the races.
Lucy will pull the football away again...is the messsage.

and for those who think that a Clinton Win will be good for the markets? That may prove to be better for Gold/Silver than thought.

Citi sez: "a Clinton presidency is highly likely to be marked by near-continuous investigations as well as the risk of impeachment."


GVI Trading Jay Meisler  14:55:22 GMT - 11/02/2016  
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Look at EURGBP (.9034) as a source of EURUSD demand, GBPUSD supply. EURUSD tested 61,8% at 1.1115

Amazing Trader levels updated


London Chris  13:48:31 GMT - 11/02/2016  
... or filthy poor if a poll comes out in favour of Hillary


Mtl JP  13:44:29 GMT - 11/02/2016  
 
I see two gaps on SnP that are still waiting to close:
just below 2040 and a bit above 1860
see if u can spot them;
maybe get filthy rich playing for them


Mtl JP  13:32:22 GMT - 11/02/2016  
nh 12:39 awwhhhh...
-
I continue to keep euro trading robot constrained to playing from short side only for now.


GVI Trading john bland  13:30:41 GMT - 11/02/2016  
EIA crude will be closely watched in just about an hour to see if it confirms the 9.2mn build in the API data yesterday. WTI and the S&P tend to be correlated, but not always.


GVI Trading Jay Meisler  13:18:53 GMT - 11/02/2016  
Two posts on GVI Forex from the Amazing Trader. Note EURUSD 1.1104 was cited as key resistance since yesterday and again in our live meeting. HOD 1.1102

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EURUSD 1.1104 remains untouched. Amazing Trader shows a risk for 1.1086/80/71



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Perfect roadmap with low around 1.1081, bounce off support coming out of a bounce in EUR crosses. (e.g. EURGBP back to .9005


Livingston nh  12:39:03 GMT - 11/02/2016  
JP 22:20

Yellen motivations are "status quo" -- maybe a different CB would be more LT thinking ?? -- so odds of "better today" are off the BOARD, NO Line (lottery ticket has better win chance)


GVI Trading john bland  12:06:51 GMT - 11/02/2016  
Pre ADP
DAX -81
DJ -24
SP -1

10-yr 1.799% -2.3


GVI Trading john bland  11:55:17 GMT - 11/02/2016  
you can see from these charts where the stops are resting

Heavy shorts remained in EURUSD




GBP positions still heavily short, but being trimmed.


GVI Trading john bland  11:35:02 GMT - 11/02/2016  
ADP @ 12:15 GMT a neutral 170K is expected. Due to the unreliability of the series, it does not tell us much about NFP. but it can be a source of s-t volatility.


GVI Trading john bland  10:44:52 GMT - 11/02/2016  
WTI $45.93, -0.74 following an unexpectedly large build in the API crude late Tuesday. EIA Crude will be watched today for confirmation.

S&P emini is 2100, -4
Clearly the 2100 level is a key level in the cash and futures markets.


GVI Trading john bland  10:36:14 GMT - 11/02/2016  
Equities: Risk-Off
DAX -95
DJ -52
SP -5

10-yr 1.799% -2.3bp


GVI Trading john bland  08:56:13 GMT - 11/02/2016  
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Amazing Trader charts updated on your systems


GVI Trading john bland  08:40:48 GMT - 11/02/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
2-Nov Wed
All-Day Mfg PMIs
7:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Private Employment
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
3-Nov Thu
00:00 JP- Holiday
All Day Service PMIs
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:30 US- Productivity
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
4-Nov Fri
All Day Service PMIs
12:30 US- Jobs/Trade
12:30 CA- Jobs/Trade


Trading Themes--
  • Equity markets weakness from late Tuesday has spilled over into Wednesday trading. Investors are now worried about new uncertainties related to U.S. Presidential vote next Tuesday. The talking heads still feel Hillary Clinton will be elected, but after the Brexit fiasco, their opinions are not to be trusted.

  • After some EZ holidays Tuesday, today sees final manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone.

  • Later the latest Fed policy decision is due. Most feel there is no chance for a policy change just before the U.S. elections. Any hints about the December decision is the focus.

  • On Thursday a BOE policy decision is due. No policy changes are expected. BOE Governor Carney is also expected to announce that he is not stepping down in the immediate future. On Friday, October employment data are due from the U.S. and Canada.

  • The likely outcome of the U.S. Presidential election remains up in the air with less than one week to go. As for the FBI disclosure on Friday, there simply is not enough time for a large number of documents (650K) to be cleared for release, and voting has already been underway and will continue.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk Off



dc CB  23:12:39 GMT - 11/01/2016  
Yellen won't do anything. The "statement" will be a retread with a few phrases changed, which the "oracles of finance" will parse to death.

The real actioin is the election and the apparently ignored by the press - revolt by the FBI - to scupper you know who. And unless the Rooskies have infiltrated the ranks of the FBI (which is a charge I'm sure will be thrown out there), this is gonna be a bad news week for the Hillary camp.

see BBG link below.

FBI Surprises With Files on Clinton 01 Pardon of Marc Rich



Mtl JP  22:33:43 GMT - 11/01/2016  
fwiw, still keeping BoD on usdcad


Mtl JP  22:20:33 GMT - 11/01/2016  
nh 20:35 what is your "Tomorrow would be better" bet's target price ?
tia


GVI Trading john bland  20:39:09 GMT - 11/01/2016  
nh- many thanks.


Livingston nh  20:35:37 GMT - 11/01/2016  
My thought is that her three dissenters disappear after December - if she thought the economy could take a hike tomorrow would be better than December (the election issue is not an issue unless you make it one) - December raises issues more critical than November

She doesn't want to do anything but she needs to keep the three in line (she would have smacked down Brainard in Sept if she really wanted to hike) until they are replaced in January

Tomorrow would be better just in case Trump wins 'cause she's gone if he does and she'll take flak for the next year as a lame duck (gotta have somebody to blame if there's a recession and Trump knows where to direct FIRE)

It's not the Earth the Meek inherit; it's the Dirt


GVI Trading john bland  20:16:40 GMT - 11/01/2016  
nh- my guess is the Fed will be cautious about what it signals tomorrow. IN other words, I think they WANT to hike in December, but they don't have a lot to gain by locking themselves in ahead of two Jobs reports. Any thoughts??


Livingston nh  20:03:12 GMT - 11/01/2016  
Yellen needs to be careful which side she offends if the market starts to think there is no Yearly rate hike- BBRG had an article about three banks saying no hike until 2017 and Goldman worrying about a "strong" dollar giving the Fed pause in Dec

A 20% change in Market opinion into the Payroll Friday might send a "COMEY" message into next week -"Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practise to deceive"

GO Janet - there is no upside


GVI Trading john bland  19:49:41 GMT - 11/01/2016  
NOTE: we flagged a risk of a change in our EURUSD statistical bias yesterday. It has flipped from "DOWN" to "UP" today with spot EURUSD ending above its 20-day average of 1.1008. Odds on a Fed rate hike by year end are 64% vs. 69% Monday


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GVI Trading john bland  19:45:18 GMT - 11/01/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
2-Nov Wed
All-Day Mfg PMIs
7:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Private Employment
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
3-Nov Thu
00:00 JP- Holiday
All Day Service PMIs
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:30 US- Productivity
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
4-Nov Fri
All Day Service PMIs
12:30 US- Jobs/Trade
12:30 CA- Jobs/Trade


Trading Themes--
  • Tuesday has been a rough day fr equity markets in Europe and the U.S. as it appears that investors have started to worry about the new uncertainties related to U.S. Presidential vote in a week. The talking heads still feel Hillary Clinton will be elected, but after the Brexit fiasco, their opinions are not to be trusted. After some EZ holidays Tuesday, Wednesday will see final manufacturing PMIs from major economies on the Continent.

  • Today saw Chinese PMIs improve and the Japanese flash PMI revised down modestly. U.S. manufacturing PMIs were modestly better. Wednesday sees the latest Fed policy decision. Market pundits feel there is no chance for a policy change just before the U.S. elections, but hints about the December decision would not surprise.

  • As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged. Japan pushed out by one year the time frame for meeting its 2% inflation target.

  • On Thursday a BOE policy decision is due. No policy changes are expected. BOE Governor Carney is also expected to announce that he is not stepping down in the immediate future. On Friday, October employment data are due from the U.S. and Canada.

  • The likely outcome of the U.S. Presidential election remains up in the air with just one week to go. As for the FBI disclosure on Friday, there simply is not enough time for a large number of documents (650K) to be cleared for release, and voting has already been underway and will continue.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk Off






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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