USDJPY benefitting from Risk On . 110,00 on the table ? Japanese would love it .
PAR16:20:11 GMT - 11/08/2016
GS going for new record high on S&P with a Clinton victory .
There are just no sellers in this market and in low volume HFT can reach new record in no time . S& P 2160 before results are known and above 2200 with a Hilary victory .
Mtl JP 16:07:44 GMT - 11/08/2016
might be priced in
beware of a profit-taking sell-off
as an old gv poster (yipee) used to say: plz mind thy risk
PAR15:40:34 GMT - 11/08/2016
Wall Street convinced of a Hilary victory . Stocks to move higher . Risk On .
Paris ib 15:35:50 GMT - 11/08/2016
Turns out the calls of a low turnout are going to be wrong: massive turnout so far.
Paris ib 15:02:31 GMT - 11/08/2016
CB yeah but the plus side is we got a preview of both. What happens with a Trump win... more or less and what is likely to happen with a Clinton win. Pre Comey we didn't have that interesting preview. :-)
Mtl JP 14:58:35 GMT - 11/08/2016
if volatility hell breaks loose your stop loss likely to be worth zilch
and any oversized tp fill likely to be subsequently denied
dc CB 14:54:19 GMT - 11/08/2016
Deutsche Bank - which likewise has a base case that Clinton will win - has advised it sales and trading team to immediately report to their trading desks should Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan. This means shortly after the polls in these two states close at 8pm, trading will be either promptly die down or will just be getting started.
So should Trump be seen as leading and/or winning in those two key battleground states, expect all volatility hell to break loose.
dc CB 14:35:02 GMT - 11/08/2016
I'm waiting to see what happens. On friday I was planning on making some bearish bets on Monday. I feel like a genius for deciding to wait thru the weekend.
That sheit that Comey pulled....
Some wag tweeted that Comey, looking thru those 650,000 emails found his own suicide note. So he decided to give Hil a pass. LOL
Paris ib 14:28:21 GMT - 11/08/2016
Plus to be honest BREXIT was such a huge one off.... how likely is it that you get TWO huge one offs in ONE year? It's really pushing the envelope on odds. So welcome Madame President. What they gonna do? Put her in formaldehyde right off so they can wheel her out when needed?
Mtl JP 14:28:00 GMT - 11/08/2016
“We gave him two options to see who might become the next U.S. president. He picked Clinton,” Boots’s trainer Sue Zacharias told the newspaper.
“He has been correct in the past,” she added.
hmmm... past performance indicative of future result ?
that goat could become famous and in demand
CB yeah I was just looking around. It does seem that a lot of people believe that Trump can't pull it off because of how the system works.
So what do we do? Take a position on that? I can't bring myself to do that. Also I think whatever direction we take will be brutal and, more importantly, short lived. FADE whatever happens but don't rush IMVHO.
I guess if we end up with Hillary it's more military aggression. Markets are in a scary place at the moment. Add some geopolitical crap and we tip over. Best trade: stock market puts. March expiry.
the thing is, because of the Electoral College, you only have to win 11 states to take the election.
Paris ib 14:14:01 GMT - 11/08/2016
CB yeah I saw that. Kinda funny really. I saw in the same article that they had DEWEY won headlines on some out of date newspaper. No question that the establishment and the press (and maybe the voting machines) are all in on this one. Clinton is their candidate.
Still I don't think you can write Trump off just yet. I'm certainly not willing to take a position into this.
Agree with the posters who suggest that Clinton will be bullish for the markets and the dollar at least initially and the reverse is likely to be true for Trump. My view is that the level of enthusiasm that Trump has stirred up is something to watch. It's an amazing result for an outsider and a slightly kooky candidate. The level of fed up ness in the U.S. must be sky high. Not surprising in my opinion. So if the average despondent / deplorable gets themself to voting booth then something interesting could take place.
dc CB 14:03 so how do we trade it to get filthy rich ?
dc CB 14:03:32 GMT - 11/08/2016
Paris ib 11:02
guess you missed my post last eve. Clinton won. NewsWeek has already sent the magazine to the vendors.
From the Editors: 2 special edition covers for 2016 election outcomes were produced by a Newsweek licensee, Topix Media, and not by Newsweek. "Topix made a business decision to only print the Clinton version ahead of time given that she is almost universally favored to win the election on Tuesday."
Thanks John. So if we are lucky tomorrow morning when Europe wakes up we will have the results.
If we are not lucky PAR might be right. :-)
GVI Trading john bland 11:44:51 GMT - 11/08/2016
The votes for House and Senate are by state and will come out all night
GVI Trading john bland 11:11:18 GMT - 11/08/2016
No results are released until the polls in a given state close. In the Eastern Time zone they close generally at 00:00 GMT. Immediately after they close we will start to see the exit polls. It all depends then on how close the vote is. If Hillary is winning decisively, my guess is we could know within three hours of that time. If the vote is very close, the count could go on all night.
Paris ib 11:06:28 GMT - 11/08/2016
PAR that made me laugh out loud. :-)
PAR11:05:16 GMT - 11/08/2016
Maybe next week ?
Paris ib 11:02:30 GMT - 11/08/2016
Realistically when will we know? Ten hours from now?
PAR10:04:53 GMT - 11/08/2016
A Hilary victory looks likely . The Rich get Richer and GS will form the Hilary presidential cabinet.
The Chinese yuan keeps dropping and Chinese trade figures were very disappointing. China raising margins on commodity trading as movements get surrealistic .
The US dollar will move higher and stocks should benefit.
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