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dc CB  18:12:01 GMT - 12/09/2016  
another way to look at that.

Buy North American

GVI Trading john bland  18:07:20 GMT - 12/09/2016  

US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 624 vs 597 (+27) prev
US (oil): 498 vs. 477 (+21) prev

Canada 230 vs. 200 (+30) prev

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GVI Trading john bland  17:21:25 GMT - 12/09/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDP forecast steady at 2.60% vs. 12/6

london red  15:04:05 GMT - 12/09/2016  
strong gains across the board, some weakness in infl ex but still well abv 2%. during current hour euro shud stay well under 80 and close hour breaking under 50. fading blips shud work while under 80

GVI Trading john bland  15:01:05 GMT - 12/09/2016  
U.S. Wholesale Inventories October 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-0.40% vs. -0.40% exp. vs. -0.40% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  15:00:45 GMT - 12/09/2016  
Big beat

GVI Trading john bland  15:00:20 GMT - 12/09/2016  
Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index December 2016
U.S. Data Charts

98.0 vs. 94.5 exp. vs. 93.8 prev

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

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GVI Trading john bland  09:33:43 GMT - 12/09/2016  
UK trade data better than expected.

GVI Trading john bland  09:32:42 GMT - 12/09/2016  
UK Trade November 2016


Total: -9.70 vs. -11.8 exp. vs. -12.7 (r -13.8) prev.
Non-EU: -1.6 vs. -3.5 exp. vs. -4.0 prev (r -5.3)

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  09:09:19 GMT - 12/09/2016  
China CPI November 2016

Earlier News Alert
CPI yy: +2.30% vs. +2.20% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

EARLIER China CPI. Inflation at +2.30% yy higher than expected.

China CPI Chart

Mtl JP  22:51:29 GMT - 12/08/2016  
So I left on some errands early this morning, and
woopeee: Gap - now poof!, done , under the dome and in the bag.

Mtl JP 01:33 GMT November 14, 2016
Monday Trading: Reply
I have yet to see a gap not close
plz mind your risk

Took a while and a bit of patience but the tradition perpetuates and rewards pour in (with a posicarry bonus to boot!)

some of my best trades are those that I do not watch, just skewer it on, give it some parameters and let tradition take its course. This one was not even part of my stable of robots doing the trading.

I am thinking of specializing in (almost) nothing but trading opening gaps. Trading intensely one day a week does have a strong appeal, I admit.

do u gals and guys remember this ?

GVI Trading john bland  18:57:41 GMT - 11/18/2016  
WTI traders use rig count increase as an opportunity to buy. Next big OPEC meeting is on November 30.

GVI Trading john bland  18:05:02 GMT - 11/18/2016  
decent jump in rig count

GVI Trading john bland  18:03:57 GMT - 11/18/2016  

US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 588 vs 568 (+20) prev
US (oil): 471 vs. 453 (+18) prev

Canada 184 vs. 176 (+8) prev

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GVI Trading john bland  16:19:35 GMT - 11/18/2016  
NY Fed Nowcast 4Q16 GDP +2.4% vs 1.6% on 11/4

Source :

GVI Trading john bland  15:46:32 GMT - 11/18/2016  
-- Markets pricing for government stimulus; higher rates
-- unconcerned about market expectations about policy


GVI Trading john bland  15:28:32 GMT - 11/18/2016  
Iraqi Oil Minister:
-- Oil output cut differences narrowing
-- Optimistic deal will be reached

>> TTN

GVI Trading john bland  15:04:12 GMT - 11/18/2016  
U.S. Leading Indicators October 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.

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LONDON SFH  14:29:01 GMT - 11/18/2016  
Now that was a falling knife,,,,,

london red  14:26:07 GMT - 11/18/2016  
yen bounced off 10975 now shudnt revisit if to travel higher. 11035/37 is a couple of fibs if can clear shud be able to rerun at 11060-85 zone again.
euro needs to see under 10596 to tgt 80 and 60 if breached.

Paris ib  14:25:47 GMT - 11/18/2016  
SFH - During the European bond crisis one guy told me all his customers were buying German bonds. The BUY at the time was Portuguese bonds. I mean if you wanted to make any money. :-)

Paris ib  14:24:06 GMT - 11/18/2016  
SFH - makes for a tricky market. Still think into year end: follow the trend. Don't care, don't think and take your profits where you can. Next year we all get to sit down and look at what exactly has been going on here.

LONDON SFH  14:21:26 GMT - 11/18/2016  
ib... Many of them are Swiss but the rest are Euro based....theyre bond funds who have to look more at index based returns so their investing style is, imho not exaclty clever but more actuarial and less efficient...But their flows are there and they will not be swayed quickly...but I agree with you in time....question is when!

Paris ib  14:18:09 GMT - 11/18/2016  
SFH - fine. But then your customers probably don't think that their USD denominated bonds are going to fall in value. So they think the sell off is over. Either that or they are going to hold to maturity and don't care. Essentially then they are buying the currency not the yield. I mean what kind of duration are they buying? Are these people market to market in pounds? Practically any foreign investment by a British based investor this year would have made money.

LONDON SFH  14:15:16 GMT - 11/18/2016  
ib...last 5 minutes...funny!

I know an awful lot of my customers who have stopped investing in EUR bonds now as they can't get any yield and have shifted to investing in USD bonds so whilst I agree with your sentiment and logic, it isn't actually happening yet and I don't think the UST buying is purely speculative

Paris ib  14:01:19 GMT - 11/18/2016  
Bonds in the U.S. and elsewhere will only be a BUY when yields STOP rising. At that point the sell off has ended. That has not yet happened. The relationship with the USD and capital flows is - if anything - way premature if not misguided.

Paris ib  13:59:51 GMT - 11/18/2016  
SFH - rising yields are not attracting capital. Nobody is attracted to a market which is tanking. Yields are rising because the bond market is tanking. What is happening is that traders are buying USDs on spec. Assuming that higher yields are equivalent to higher short term interest rates. In the early 1980s when the USD did rise - under VOLKER - with short term rates being hiked aggressively capital was drawn in, basically in to deposit accounts (which do not carry asset risks). The bond market is a whole other animal. Rising bond market yields can be ASSUMED to be the same as sharply rising short term rates but they are not.

LONDON SFH  13:55:21 GMT - 11/18/2016  
ib- Is there such a thing as a non issue any more? It will be a while before the rising yields of the US stop attracting capital....the world's other CBks are too busy trying to keep theirs down so I feel we need to wait until there is some end in sight with QE or some really bad trade disgreements with the US before it turns the $......and as I said earlier Feb 18th....long way off still :)

Paris ib  13:50:52 GMT - 11/18/2016  
The reformist referendum in Italy - which is attempting to eliminate a bicameral system and replace it with just a one chamber parliament - is a big NON issue. The media can beat it to death but it is still a non issue. What we have now is the idea that soaring bond yields in the States are somehow attractive to offshore capital. Come on guys buy some falling assets. Buy our bonds now before they get even cheaper. Yeah I get that. Not. Anyhow the market can do stupid for a considerable time so don't stand in front of a train.

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Keynes

london red  13:43:36 GMT - 11/18/2016  
always healthy to get a retracement but still think it will be under pressure into italy referendum. after that brexit should take hold again until spring when you have dutch french and then german elections later in year

LONDON SFH  13:40:11 GMT - 11/18/2016  
hearing corporates bot eurgbp... liquidity thin

GVI Trading john bland  13:31:10 GMT - 11/18/2016  
a touch soft

GVI Trading john bland  13:30:40 GMT - 11/18/2016  
Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices October 2016
Canada Data Charts

Bank of Canada Core
yy: +1.70% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. +1.80% prev.
mm: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
yy: +1.50% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.

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london red  13:24:02 GMT - 11/18/2016  
10yr filled gap to 228 the high of yestersdays TNX session, so if bonds to sell of again could be here. below 2245 prob no return today.

london red  13:20:23 GMT - 11/18/2016  
eurgbp bottomed and thats what stopped cable see 1.20 on this euro run down. sup 12296 and 12250/60. if no daily close under 12330 will likely bounce (this was prev high which hampered former rallies so acts as sup). as long as euro stays under 10660 will be temporary bounce. if abv u have a st bottom. maybe resell at 108 then.

Singapore SC  13:10:00 GMT - 11/18/2016  
Any news in cable? Bottom fell out of it.

Israel  Dil  12:29:21 GMT - 11/18/2016  
iphone made in USA

Apple could make iPhones in US in future: sources

GVI Trading john bland  12:12:13 GMT - 11/18/2016  
Earlier Bullard said he was "leaning" towards supporting a December rate hike...

Thanks for that guidance!

GVI Trading john bland  12:10:04 GMT - 11/18/2016  
I almost fell off my chair laughing at the Bullard comments below!

GVI Trading john bland  12:08:36 GMT - 11/18/2016  
-- What causes problems in policy is surprises relative to market expectations
-- communications key for central banks

>> wire service

PAR 08:44:03 GMT - 11/18/2016  
Draghi European banks are far from healthy . Non performing loans still a big problem .

PAR 08:40:35 GMT - 11/18/2016  
Draghi trying to talk European bond markets higher as he looks at the ECB bonds book . He is getting nervous .

GVI Trading john bland  08:38:07 GMT - 11/18/2016  
-- committed to sustained monetary accommodation
-- inflation way below ECB objective
-- to consistent strengthening of inflation

>> wire service

GVI Trading john bland  18:02:12 GMT - 11/17/2016  
SNB Maechler:
-- CHF remains significantly overvalued.
-- confident SNB can cut rates further


london red  15:35:18 GMT - 11/17/2016  
lots of diip usd buying but solid defence of 110 thus far, keeping prev honest. i think if they let that go it will be touch and go, but favour a break tom despite promising techs.

GVI Trading john bland  15:32:49 GMT - 11/17/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDP Now 3.60% vs. 3.30% on Nov 15.

Source : TTN

GVI Trading john bland  15:31:25 GMT - 11/17/2016  
Yellen no plans to step down early

GVI Trading john bland  15:30:51 GMT - 11/17/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

+32 vs. +53 exp vs. +54 prev.

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GVI Trading john bland  15:28:57 GMT - 11/17/2016  
Yellen apparently confirms signal for December rate hike. No surprise.

Israel  Dil  14:26:11 GMT - 11/17/2016  
your comments are welcome

Nigeria , OPEC member

GVI Trading john bland  13:41:14 GMT - 11/17/2016  
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) October 2016

Starts: 1.323 vs. 1.156 exp. vs. 1.054r prev.
Permits: 1.229 vs. 1.193 exp. vs. 1.225r prev.

New Residential Construction

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Singapore Td  13:39:06 GMT - 11/17/2016  
Thanks JP. Too bad not full size as I was preparing for lower levels. But you nailed it. Well done!

GVI Trading john bland  13:37:53 GMT - 11/17/2016  

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)
235K vs. 250K exp. vs. 254K (r K) prev.

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london red  13:37:22 GMT - 11/17/2016  
a mixed bag but nothing certainly to worry about. usdjpy might squeeze higher but 110 barrier shud be safe today. tom is another matter. same for euro 10660 prob safe but tomorrow another game as if not filling gap, moves sharply other way and likely a close at lows of wk.

GVI Trading john bland  13:34:56 GMT - 11/17/2016  
U.S. CPI October 2016
U.S. Data Charts

m/m: +0.40% vs. +0.40% exp. v 0.30% pre
y/y: +1.60% vs. +1.60% exp. v +1.50% pre
y/y: +2.10% vs. +2.20% exp. v +2.20% pre

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index

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GVI Trading john bland  13:30:51 GMT - 11/17/2016  
U.S. Philly Fed Index November 2016
U.S. Data Charts


+7.6 vs. +8.00 exp. vs. +9.70 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

london red  13:25:55 GMT - 11/17/2016  
rates/spreads looking ok to buy usd dip. decent cpi now needed.

Mtl JP  13:21:13 GMT - 11/17/2016  
08:18 30-year up 2.9 basis points at 2.953%
08:18 2-year down 1.1 basis point at 0.993%
08:18 10-year flat at 2.225%

london red  13:20:02 GMT - 11/17/2016  
edited for crap grammer! inflation as f/c should calm usd, if not weakness likely. same a beat, which shud be a big deal for mkts, since thats what they have been pricing in this week (reflation), should see usd test tops of recent ranges vs euro and yen. again if they cannot on solid data we are in for profit taking.

london red  13:18:28 GMT - 11/17/2016  
inflation as f/c should calm usd if not likely weakness. same a beat which shud be a big deal for mkts since thats what they have been pricing in this week (reflation), should see euro and usdjpy test tops of recent ranges. again if they cannot on solid data we are in for profit taking.

Mtl JP  13:16:41 GMT - 11/17/2016  
gawd this woman is confused
any wonder that she has scheduled two kabuki theaterical yakkers after her moaning ?

GVI Trading john bland  13:12:42 GMT - 11/17/2016  
10-yr last 2.230% +0.9bps (2.208% before)

Mtl JP  13:09:39 GMT - 11/17/2016  
singapore td hopefully u r getting filthy rich off usdcad

london red  13:09:18 GMT - 11/17/2016  
more hawkish for her but not to where mkt is. there is some run for euro to run to 10660 today/tom, cpi might help, but think then we get a bounce of more than a figure.

GVI Trading john bland  13:08:53 GMT - 11/17/2016  
Yellen signaling Dec hike? gradual tightening of future policy, expresses risk of falling behind the curve.

bottom line she is signaling a cautious policy tightening, but a tightening.

GVI Trading john bland  13:05:23 GMT - 11/17/2016  
-- policy path could change in response to outlook
-- economy has more room to run than anticipated
-- expects moderate economic growth, labor market strengthening, return of 2% inflation over next couple of years

>> wire service

GVI Trading john bland  13:01:12 GMT - 11/17/2016  
- rate hike could be appropriate soon

Mtl JP  10:08:20 GMT - 11/17/2016  
td 10:00 I like down to 1.3380

singapore td  10:05:03 GMT - 11/17/2016  
yup and they are still talking about people migrating to Canada from US because of Trump LOL

Mtl JP  10:02:59 GMT - 11/17/2016  
apparently "As you grumble about the ever-increasing price of groceries, remember that there are hundreds of thousands of Canadians who can’t even afford to step inside the supermarket. .. .. ... In March of this year, more than 860,000 people accessed food from a food bank."

More Canadians using food banks: report

singapore td  10:01:25 GMT - 11/17/2016  
sorry typo, should have read 1.3250-70

GVI Trading john bland  10:01:10 GMT - 11/17/2016  
Final EZ HICP (CPI) October 2016


yy: +0.50% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.

HICP core
yy: +0.80% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.

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singapore td  10:00:18 GMT - 11/17/2016  
JP, where is the loading zone? i see 1.3350-70 but maybe already starting now

london red  09:57:00 GMT - 11/17/2016  
cable. with 12470 tested now shudnt go under 70 if going to rally. if goes below suggests test of sup at 12450. on the upside, unlikely to beat 12492 and then fail higher up. so if 12492 taken it shud test the high again with key 12515 then in play.

Mtl JP  09:55:21 GMT - 11/17/2016  
td I see BoD opps

nw kw  09:53:06 GMT - 11/17/2016  
Pricier cuts of meat ... which were less affordable a year ago, are now more affordable," he said, noting that the company has seen the amount of beef that customers buy, including costlier cuts, rise

food war in cad// firm cad

london red  09:47:26 GMT - 11/17/2016  
127-12850 jp is a gd lt sell zone. i dont bet on seeing it, but if seen, i will bet on 130 not being beaten on a closing basis.

singapore td  09:46:53 GMT - 11/17/2016  
JP, your puppy loonie looks sick today

Mtl JP  09:45:58 GMT - 11/17/2016  
gbp 1.25
econ data are flash
brexit thinggie is the longer term fear n greed dominant

50 day 1.2618
20 day 1.2361
gbpusd = Sell Rallies

london red  09:40:27 GMT - 11/17/2016  
buy 12470 if seen stop under 12450 may work.

singapore td  09:36:04 GMT - 11/17/2016  
red, got some hourly MA resistance 1.2532, that may cap

london red  09:34:05 GMT - 11/17/2016  
stops over 12515 shud squeeze if run. if not may fade. mkt is still short so on edge when rallies.

GVI Trading john bland  09:33:25 GMT - 11/17/2016  
U.K. Retail Sales data big beat.

GVI Trading john bland  09:31:31 GMT - 11/17/2016  
U.K. Retail Sales October 2016
U.K. Charts


mm: +1.90% v +0.20% exp. vs. 0.0% (r +0.1%) p
mm: +2.0% v +0.0% exp. vs. 0.0% (r +0.1%) p

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales

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GVI Trading john bland  09:28:33 GMT - 11/17/2016  
Australia Employment October 2016

Employment: +9.8K vs. +20.0K exp. vs. -9.8K (r -29.0) prev.
Rate: 5.60% vs. 5.60% exp. vs. 5.60% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer


EARLIER: August Employment data rises by less than expected. Full time jobs up by 41.5K .

nw kw  16:10:19 GMT - 11/16/2016  
us steel co. weekly brake out top side.

Israel  Dil  15:58:41 GMT - 11/16/2016  
it needs loads of oil to keep the monumental vision building and running. just take a second and discover what Trump is all about, monuments and lots of them, that's the Trump meaning about human existence; -)

it's very clear what you have to buy and hold with such theme being the mindset of USA and China too.

nw kw  15:53:59 GMT - 11/16/2016  
lumber up on stronger fed this is first.

nw kw  15:50:54 GMT - 11/16/2016  
hear cargas jumped 10c and I'm never seen this coming this time so oil can hold

london red  15:49:36 GMT - 11/16/2016  
in this case i think whatever opec do or say is almost an irrelevance. the trump reflation trade is the driver. they caught on late with crude, but now itll move in line with other reflation trades.
as for usd pullback looks like we are done here, they didnt follow bonds, lrg fear of missing out.

nw kw  15:45:04 GMT - 11/16/2016  
OPEC new fed for oil range, interesting.

GVI Trading john bland  15:40:38 GMT - 11/16/2016  
It all depends on what you believe about OPEC

GVI Trading john bland  15:39:43 GMT - 11/16/2016  
Energy Min Novak: sees good chance for OPEC to reach agreement; hoping something will be in place Nov 30th - press
- discussing options for reaching oil market balance more quickly

- Source

london red  15:38:05 GMT - 11/16/2016  
well that didnt last long i dont think we will see below 200dma for a while in crude

GVI Trading john bland  15:32:08 GMT - 11/16/2016  
large Crude build, higher than API

GVI Trading john bland  15:31:18 GMT - 11/16/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: +5.300 vs. +1.300 exp vs. +2.400 prev.
Distillates:+0.300 vs. -1.900 exp vs. -1.500 prev.
Gasoline: +0.700 vs. +0.030 exp vs. -2.800 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI Trading john bland  15:00:14 GMT - 11/16/2016  
U.S. NAHB Index November 2016
U.S. Data Charts

63 vs. 63 exp. vs. 63 (r) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  14:16:59 GMT - 11/16/2016  
Industrial Production figures miss.

GVI Trading john bland  14:16:23 GMT - 11/16/2016  
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization September 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Ind Production: 0.0% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% (r -0.20%) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 75.3% vs. 75.60% exp. vs. 75.40% (r ) prev.

RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

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GVI Trading john bland  13:32:37 GMT - 11/16/2016  
October PPI softer than expected, but unlikely to impact Fed.

GVI Trading john bland  13:31:03 GMT - 11/16/2016  
U.S. PPI October 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Headline: 0.00% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. 0.30% (r. ) prev.
Core: -0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% (r. ) prev.

RELEASE: Producer Price Index

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  12:12:22 GMT - 11/16/2016  
PM May: Govt absolutely united in delivering Brexit.

>> TTN

GVI Trading john bland  09:33:15 GMT - 11/16/2016  
U.K. Jobs data mixed.

GVI Trading john bland  09:31:29 GMT - 11/16/2016  
U.K. Employment September/October 2016


Claimant Count (000): +9.8 vs. +2.0 exp. vs. +0.7 (r +5.6)prev.
ILO Rate: 4.8% vs. 4.90% exp. vs. 4.90% prev.
earnings:2.30% vs. 2.40% exp. vs. 2.30% (r) prev.
earnings x-bonus: 2.40% vs. 2.40% exp. vs. 2.30% (r) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  21:34:30 GMT - 11/15/2016  
US Weekly API Crude

Reportedly +3.700 mn vs. +1.300 mn exp (EIA)

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Paris ib  20:12:43 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Meanwhile the 'elites' hold their back room meetings. What a world.

london red  20:09:28 GMT - 11/15/2016  
clearly the fx mkt isnt interested. every lets entertains the straw clutching for a moment. another 2 years of uncertainty. because the remainers can try as they might, but the worm has turned, globalisation is on a downward slope and every coming election is going to vote against it with ever stronger majorities.

GVI Trading 19:50:13 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Supreme Court Judge Hale warns of possible 2 year Brexit delay if court requires 'comprehensive' legislation to trigger Article 50 - press - govt may have to pass Great Repeal Bill before triggering Article 50; bill is not planned to be introduced until after May 2017- Supreme Court hearing will begin on 5 December.

- Source

Israel Dil  16:26:43 GMT - 11/15/2016  

with 1% of people living is USA kicked away by Trump, so you see any impact on US GDP numbers?

GVI Trading john bland  16:24:18 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDPNOW 4Q16 GDP forecast 3.30% vs. 3.10% on Nov 9.

Source: TTN

GVI Trading john bland  15:02:00 GMT - 11/15/2016  
U.S. Business Inventories August 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. 0.00% (r ) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Paris ib  13:47:25 GMT - 11/15/2016  
The improbability drive moving towards... normality? Looks like we might be moving away from all the excitement... so retrace AGAIN. Still the transition period might throw up all sorts of things. Stay tuned.


london red  13:35:23 GMT - 11/15/2016  
folk late to party will have bought usd and sold bonds on this. spikes now reversed. a move on bonds to hod will run stops.

GVI Trading john bland  13:34:57 GMT - 11/15/2016  
U.S. Retail Sales beat expectations.

london red  13:33:33 GMT - 11/15/2016  
usd taking a breather. data gd but i doubt will see new lows. need to wait for yellen.

GVI Trading john bland  13:32:41 GMT - 11/15/2016  
U.S. Advance Retail Sales October 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.80% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.60% (r +1.0% )

x-autos & gas: +0.60% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% (+0.50%)

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  13:31:24 GMT - 11/15/2016  
U.S. Import Prices October 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.50% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  13:30:50 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Empire PMI November 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+1.50 vs. -2.60 vs. -6.80 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP  13:20:11 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Mark Carney has challenged politicians to implement ‘major’ structural economic reforms.

Otherwise, we could be stuck with low interest rates for decades.

Mtl JP  13:13:17 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Carney is losing his "rockstar"
"central banks not to blame for rising inequality"

Carney live

GVI Trading john bland  13:04:38 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Fed's Rosengren
-- December rate hike looks "plausible".

>> TTN

GVI Trading john bland  12:27:51 GMT - 11/15/2016  
(slightly delayed)
BOE Carney:
-- UK inflation to go up
-- Pass thru of inflation from lower pound likely substantial
-- Will accommodate inflation overshoot if caused by slack, exchange rate
-- Watching UK inflation expectations closely

>> wire service

GVI Trading john bland  10:12:27 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Eurozone 3Q16 GDP unrevised.

GVI Trading john bland  10:04:19 GMT - 11/15/2016  
no changes in GDP revisions.

GVI Trading john bland  10:03:30 GMT - 11/15/2016  
no changes in GDP revisions.

GVI Trading john bland  10:03:00 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Eurozone GDP 3Q16
Global-VIew EZ and German Charts

Data News ALERT
qq: +0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% (r ) prev.
yy: +1.60% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.60% (r ) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

target="_blank">Eurozone GDP Data

GVI Trading john bland  10:02:05 GMT - 11/15/2016  
Mixed German ZEW Survey. Current conditions misss. Expectations beat.

GVI Trading john bland  10:00:55 GMT - 11/15/2016  
German ZEW Survey November 2016


Current Situation: +58.8 vs. +62.0 exp. vs. +59.5 prev.

Economic Expectations: +13.8 vs. +7.80 exp. vs. +6.20 prev.

RELEASE: German ZEW Survey

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  09:32:09 GMT - 11/15/2016  
CPI softer than expected

GVI Trading john bland  09:31:32 GMT - 11/15/2016  
U.K. CPI October 2016
U.K. Charts


CPI m/m: +0.10% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
CPI y/y: +0.90% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Haifa ac  04:56:27 GMT - 11/15/2016  
"Obama news conference continues"

CONDESCENDING--that is the one word that described Potus final news conference

'Reality has a way of asserting itself!' Condescending Obama says Trump can't keep his promises as he warns his successor's 'temperament' will be his undoing unless he 'corrects' it

Read more:

what an oaf.

GVI Trading john bland  21:26:13 GMT - 11/14/2016  
Obama news conference continues. So far I have heard nothing that I feel is newsworthy.

london red  15:13:57 GMT - 11/14/2016  
cable. tom uk cpi. they shud buy dip ahead of it as mkt worried about cpi running away. so 12380 zone buy stop under 50 stays the rec. now in its stride on downside shme i cut the short with pennies but u cant win them all.

london red  14:57:17 GMT - 11/14/2016  
i leave for lunch and come back to see another wave of bond selling! spreads widen a touch and yen almost touched fib 10850 on that wave. abv 10850 on a closing basis tgts 110/111 but needs bonds abv 2.38%

london red  13:49:23 GMT - 11/14/2016  
massive wick building in daily and wkly 10yr yield chart. these need to stick but almost certainly now seen high nearterm. on the bund, the 10yr almost filled opening gap and close to flat on day.

london red  13:39:13 GMT - 11/14/2016  
btw when gaps arent filled quickly mkt often sharply moves other way. but yes eventually will get filled. retail sales and yellen later in wk. mkt remembers those lvls even if others lose their heads in heat of moment.

london red  13:36:30 GMT - 11/14/2016  
if euro comes dwn by top of hour (58) , it will have a long wick, suggestive of 50 and further dwnside. so the play will be to run it dwn in nxt 30 mins, if it is due to fall under 58 and test 50. if rally is going to be maintained, they will not test 58 for 4 hour running - it will turn higher on a dip well ahead of that 58. so anything under 70 suggests up upside for rest of hour and the following 60 mins.
10yr needs below 2.206 or abv 126.83 tick to stop rot but as always spreads give the acceleration, bund needs to lose ground to a rising 10yr (tick) to gain sup for euro.

Mtl JP  13:23:01 GMT - 11/14/2016  
red 12:10 IF euro takes a straight run fro 1.05 without closing the gap it would a first in my trading time.

london red  12:49:53 GMT - 11/14/2016  
spreads still doing euro no favours even if individual bonds have bounced a little. below 58 and 50 curtains and low tgtd. need a sharp reversal up in last 10 mins of hr to avert danger. seen solid offers on my platform all way dwn from last blip higher. i think everyone has eye on italy ref and thinks 3 strikes (brexit, trump...)

nw kw  12:36:31 GMT - 11/14/2016  
yellen later in wk can change things if they havent by then already.

tks red

nw kw  12:22:28 GMT - 11/14/2016  
for my eurusd gaps are always have a gap inverted to audjpy, not this time, so jpy or yen might lead this week, do we short usdjpy 108. or is a rocket in usdjpy to ap 110.// this week. gl. kw.

Mtl JP  12:15:34 GMT - 11/14/2016  
kw dono :-(

nw kw  12:11:58 GMT - 11/14/2016  
jp- never had gap inverted to audjpy this time?

london red  12:10:48 GMT - 11/14/2016  
agree jp they do sooner or later. but some take a long time. today it would mean a fig off lows and so a change in sentiment as it wud signify a bottom. bond reversal needed to achieve that. yellen later in wk can change things if they havent by then already.

Mtl JP  12:00:52 GMT - 11/14/2016  
I have never - sofar - seen one not close
plz mind your risk

london red  11:59:29 GMT - 11/14/2016  
euro. shud see intrest to sell c 108 stops over 10810/15. next res 10850 shud cap any fallout. to break 10850 will need concrete turn in bonds.

london red  11:56:10 GMT - 11/14/2016  
yes just beginning to feel it as far as stocks concerned but a bit daft as might be as bad as it gets if res on yield holds. still ok unless we break and stay abv 2.38. then cost of money stays higher. currently backed off to 226 frpm just over 230.

Mtl JP  11:48:25 GMT - 11/14/2016  
us stocks futures looking to open down
reasonable reaction to perceptions of higher cost of money

nw kw  11:41:22 GMT - 11/14/2016  
I need 120 eurjpy but open interest will help me.

london red  11:35:01 GMT - 11/14/2016  
shudnbt get hourly close abv 108 if yield dip is real will try another shrt off 108 if seen if 10yr bounce continues to look evident.

london red  11:34:00 GMT - 11/14/2016  
cut some yen short here, lets see what the yield does at thius retracement.

london red  11:31:14 GMT - 11/14/2016  
cutting cable here shud be bit lower and wick pretty poor so beta not to force issue. but if does fall still plan to buy as discussed.

london red  11:29:55 GMT - 11/14/2016  
10yr yield given up 50% of sell off which began late morn (not since open), the sharp slide. is they take 50% usd gets hit again. sup at 10750/30 but watch theyield as sups wont matter if this flips.

nw kw  11:23:49 GMT - 11/14/2016  
housing markets illrelivent compared to 10y reinvestment drought.//// all charts on monthly range pivot. cfd under 30y 153.x but bund slightly under pivot 159. so ill look in new week.

ps. refinance commodity's,

london red  11:22:28 GMT - 11/14/2016  
actually 185-190 wud need to be revisited. lets see if the work off 2.30 holds.

london red  11:20:03 GMT - 11/14/2016  
this is the overshoot. any more than 235-238 and its a higher high and end to 30yr bull run. i dont think we have enough evidence that we can begin a 5yr bear mkt in bonds, hence they shud come in at these levels and a little higher maybe. but abv 238 you will see massive selling as its a higher high. looks like someone made a stand at 230. likely they will stop abv 238 if seen, like a lot of other folk. u see lrg spike on yen too so its poss they make a bottom here. the other alt is they make higher just say 2.40, then the bounce takes place after which mkt will buy dip to 2% and try higher if eveidence of spending/inflation comes in early nxt year. watch that bond candle. its either here at 230 or just abv 238.

GVI Trading john bland  11:13:29 GMT - 11/14/2016  
red- What I am wondering is what the "fair value" is for the 10-yr. In other words, where SHOULD it settle. Greenspan last Thursday said 3-5%. I'm thinking about 3% until the Trump Economic boom becomes a reality and not just a forecast. However, I would not be surprised by an initial overshoot in rates as markets try to find their level.

Something else to consider is that higher interest rates are going to hit the housing markets hard. Keep an eye on weekly mortgage applications. They should be hit immediately.

london red  11:12:18 GMT - 11/14/2016  
10yr 2.30. 10850 nxt res. prob yield then c. 2.35. 235-238 is key. we can flip here. if so quick drop in yield to 220-225 within an hour. if break v bad news for stocks too id say as until now no reaction.

london red  10:49:19 GMT - 11/14/2016  
10yr making a ruan for 2.35-2.38 prev high. if busted we have seen nothing yet and could see 35 WITHIN A DAY. but i expect folks will pick up the 10yr by there isnce all we have thus far is talk. but dips will likely be bought (yield).

london red  10:31:35 GMT - 11/14/2016  
poss some stealth intervention by snb, easing eurchf higher. should see selling interest 10750 108. mkt negative while under 108. but of course always threat.
cable. might be a nice fade c 12535 stop over 12555 for a move to test lows. shud only be a pullback as 12380-12450 shud hold to see a move up to 127. stop under 12350. cannot rule out 128-12840 on current move but close abv 130 shud be bridge too far as only so far can run on iffy us ties while eu negotiations will be tricky to say least and shud bring home problems.

GVI Trading john bland  10:02:24 GMT - 11/14/2016  
Industrial Output better than forecast.

GVI Trading john bland  10:01:35 GMT - 11/14/2016  
Eurozone Industrial Output September 2016

EZ and German Charts

mm: -0.80% vs. -1.00% exp. vs. +1.60% (r +1.80%) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland  09:01:17 GMT - 11/14/2016  
Japan 3Q16 GDP


qq: +0.50% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

3Q16 q/q GDP stronger than expected..

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
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AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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