yen bounced off 10975 now shudnt revisit if to travel higher. 11035/37 is a couple of fibs if can clear shud be able to rerun at 11060-85 zone again.
euro needs to see under 10596 to tgt 80 and 60 if breached.
Paris ib 14:25:47 GMT - 11/18/2016
SFH - During the European bond crisis one guy told me all his customers were buying German bonds. The BUY at the time was Portuguese bonds. I mean if you wanted to make any money. :-)
Paris ib 14:24:06 GMT - 11/18/2016
SFH - makes for a tricky market. Still think into year end: follow the trend. Don't care, don't think and take your profits where you can. Next year we all get to sit down and look at what exactly has been going on here.
LONDON SFH 14:21:26 GMT - 11/18/2016
ib... Many of them are Swiss but the rest are Euro based....theyre bond funds who have to look more at index based returns so their investing style is, imho not exaclty clever but more actuarial and less efficient...But their flows are there and they will not be swayed quickly...but I agree with you in time....question is when!
Paris ib 14:18:09 GMT - 11/18/2016
SFH - fine. But then your customers probably don't think that their USD denominated bonds are going to fall in value. So they think the sell off is over. Either that or they are going to hold to maturity and don't care. Essentially then they are buying the currency not the yield. I mean what kind of duration are they buying? Are these people market to market in pounds? Practically any foreign investment by a British based investor this year would have made money.
LONDON SFH 14:15:16 GMT - 11/18/2016
ib...last 5 minutes...funny!
I know an awful lot of my customers who have stopped investing in EUR bonds now as they can't get any yield and have shifted to investing in USD bonds so whilst I agree with your sentiment and logic, it isn't actually happening yet and I don't think the UST buying is purely speculative
Paris ib 14:01:19 GMT - 11/18/2016
Bonds in the U.S. and elsewhere will only be a BUY when yields STOP rising. At that point the sell off has ended. That has not yet happened. The relationship with the USD and capital flows is - if anything - way premature if not misguided.
Paris ib 13:59:51 GMT - 11/18/2016
SFH - rising yields are not attracting capital. Nobody is attracted to a market which is tanking. Yields are rising because the bond market is tanking. What is happening is that traders are buying USDs on spec. Assuming that higher yields are equivalent to higher short term interest rates. In the early 1980s when the USD did rise - under VOLKER - with short term rates being hiked aggressively capital was drawn in, basically in to deposit accounts (which do not carry asset risks). The bond market is a whole other animal. Rising bond market yields can be ASSUMED to be the same as sharply rising short term rates but they are not.
LONDON SFH 13:55:21 GMT - 11/18/2016
ib- Is there such a thing as a non issue any more? It will be a while before the rising yields of the US stop attracting capital....the world's other CBks are too busy trying to keep theirs down so I feel we need to wait until there is some end in sight with QE or some really bad trade disgreements with the US before it turns the $......and as I said earlier Feb 18th....long way off still :)
Paris ib 13:50:52 GMT - 11/18/2016
The reformist referendum in Italy - which is attempting to eliminate a bicameral system and replace it with just a one chamber parliament - is a big NON issue. The media can beat it to death but it is still a non issue. What we have now is the idea that soaring bond yields in the States are somehow attractive to offshore capital. Come on guys buy some falling assets. Buy our bonds now before they get even cheaper. Yeah I get that. Not. Anyhow the market can do stupid for a considerable time so don't stand in front of a train.
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Keynes
london red 13:43:36 GMT - 11/18/2016
always healthy to get a retracement but still think it will be under pressure into italy referendum. after that brexit should take hold again until spring when you have dutch french and then german elections later in year
LONDON SFH 13:40:11 GMT - 11/18/2016
hearing corporates bot eurgbp... liquidity thin
GVI Trading john bland 13:31:10 GMT - 11/18/2016
a touch soft
GVI Trading john bland 13:30:40 GMT - 11/18/2016
Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices October 2016
10yr filled gap to 228 the high of yestersdays TNX session, so if bonds to sell of again could be here. below 2245 prob no return today.
london red 13:20:23 GMT - 11/18/2016
eurgbp bottomed and thats what stopped cable see 1.20 on this euro run down. sup 12296 and 12250/60. if no daily close under 12330 will likely bounce (this was prev high which hampered former rallies so acts as sup). as long as euro stays under 10660 will be temporary bounce. if abv u have a st bottom. maybe resell at 108 then.
a mixed bag but nothing certainly to worry about. usdjpy might squeeze higher but 110 barrier shud be safe today. tom is another matter. same for euro 10660 prob safe but tomorrow another game as if not filling gap, moves sharply other way and likely a close at lows of wk.
rates/spreads looking ok to buy usd dip. decent cpi now needed.
Mtl JP 13:21:13 GMT - 11/17/2016
08:18 30-year up 2.9 basis points at 2.953%
08:18 2-year down 1.1 basis point at 0.993%
08:18 10-year flat at 2.225%
london red 13:20:02 GMT - 11/17/2016
edited for crap grammer! inflation as f/c should calm usd, if not weakness likely. same a beat, which shud be a big deal for mkts, since thats what they have been pricing in this week (reflation), should see usd test tops of recent ranges vs euro and yen. again if they cannot on solid data we are in for profit taking.
london red 13:18:28 GMT - 11/17/2016
inflation as f/c should calm usd if not likely weakness. same a beat which shud be a big deal for mkts since thats what they have been pricing in this week (reflation), should see euro and usdjpy test tops of recent ranges. again if they cannot on solid data we are in for profit taking.
Mtl JP 13:16:41 GMT - 11/17/2016
gawd this woman is confused
any wonder that she has scheduled two kabuki theaterical yakkers after her moaning ?
GVI Trading john bland 13:12:42 GMT - 11/17/2016
10-yr last 2.230% +0.9bps (2.208% before)
Mtl JP 13:09:39 GMT - 11/17/2016
singapore td hopefully u r getting filthy rich off usdcad
london red 13:09:18 GMT - 11/17/2016
more hawkish for her but not to where mkt is. there is some run for euro to run to 10660 today/tom, cpi might help, but think then we get a bounce of more than a figure.
GVI Trading john bland 13:08:53 GMT - 11/17/2016
Yellen signaling Dec hike? gradual tightening of future policy, expresses risk of falling behind the curve.
bottom line she is signaling a cautious policy tightening, but a tightening.
GVI Trading john bland 13:05:23 GMT - 11/17/2016
-- policy path could change in response to outlook
-- economy has more room to run than anticipated
-- expects moderate economic growth, labor market strengthening, return of 2% inflation over next couple of years
>> wire service
GVI Trading john bland 13:01:12 GMT - 11/17/2016
- rate hike could be appropriate soon
Mtl JP 10:08:20 GMT - 11/17/2016
td 10:00 I like down to 1.3380
singapore td 10:05:03 GMT - 11/17/2016
yup and they are still talking about people migrating to Canada from US because of Trump LOL
Mtl JP 10:02:59 GMT - 11/17/2016
apparently "As you grumble about the ever-increasing price of groceries, remember that there are hundreds of thousands of Canadians who can’t even afford to step inside the supermarket. .. .. ... In March of this year, more than 860,000 people accessed food from a food bank."
JP, where is the loading zone? i see 1.3350-70 but maybe already starting now
london red 09:57:00 GMT - 11/17/2016
cable. with 12470 tested now shudnt go under 70 if going to rally. if goes below suggests test of sup at 12450. on the upside, unlikely to beat 12492 and then fail higher up. so if 12492 taken it shud test the high again with key 12515 then in play.
Mtl JP 09:55:21 GMT - 11/17/2016
td I see BoD opps
nw kw 09:53:06 GMT - 11/17/2016
Pricier cuts of meat ... which were less affordable a year ago, are now more affordable," he said, noting that the company has seen the amount of beef that customers buy, including costlier cuts, rise
EARLIER: August Employment data rises by less than expected. Full time jobs up by 41.5K .
nw kw 16:10:19 GMT - 11/16/2016
us steel co. weekly brake out top side.
Israel Dil 15:58:41 GMT - 11/16/2016
it needs loads of oil to keep the monumental vision building and running. just take a second and discover what Trump is all about, monuments and lots of them, that's the Trump meaning about human existence; -)
it's very clear what you have to buy and hold with such theme being the mindset of USA and China too.
nw kw 15:53:59 GMT - 11/16/2016
lumber up on stronger fed this is first.
nw kw 15:50:54 GMT - 11/16/2016
hear cargas jumped 10c and I'm never seen this coming this time so oil can hold
london red 15:49:36 GMT - 11/16/2016
in this case i think whatever opec do or say is almost an irrelevance. the trump reflation trade is the driver. they caught on late with crude, but now itll move in line with other reflation trades.
as for usd pullback looks like we are done here, they didnt follow bonds, lrg fear of missing out.
nw kw 15:45:04 GMT - 11/16/2016
OPEC new fed for oil range, interesting.
GVI Trading john bland 15:40:38 GMT - 11/16/2016
It all depends on what you believe about OPEC
GVI Trading john bland 15:39:43 GMT - 11/16/2016
Energy Min Novak: sees good chance for OPEC to reach agreement; hoping something will be in place Nov 30th - press
- discussing options for reaching oil market balance more quickly
- Source TradeTheNews.com
london red 15:38:05 GMT - 11/16/2016
well that didnt last long i dont think we will see below 200dma for a while in crude
Meanwhile the 'elites' hold their back room meetings. What a world.
london red 20:09:28 GMT - 11/15/2016
clearly the fx mkt isnt interested. every lets entertains the straw clutching for a moment. another 2 years of uncertainty. because the remainers can try as they might, but the worm has turned, globalisation is on a downward slope and every coming election is going to vote against it with ever stronger majorities.
GVI Trading19:50:13 GMT - 11/15/2016
Supreme Court Judge Hale warns of possible 2 year Brexit delay if court requires 'comprehensive' legislation to trigger Article 50 - press - govt may have to pass Great Repeal Bill before triggering Article 50; bill is not planned to be introduced until after May 2017- Supreme Court hearing will begin on 5 December.
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Israel Dil 16:26:43 GMT - 11/15/2016
with 1% of people living is USA kicked away by Trump, so you see any impact on US GDP numbers?
GVI Trading john bland 16:24:18 GMT - 11/15/2016
Atlanta Fed GDPNOW 4Q16 GDP forecast 3.30% vs. 3.10% on Nov 9.
The improbability drive moving towards... normality? Looks like we might be moving away from all the excitement... so retrace AGAIN. Still the transition period might throw up all sorts of things. Stay tuned.
-- December rate hike looks "plausible".
GVI Trading john bland 12:27:51 GMT - 11/15/2016
-- UK inflation to go up
-- Pass thru of inflation from lower pound likely substantial
-- Will accommodate inflation overshoot if caused by slack, exchange rate
-- Watching UK inflation expectations closely
Obama news conference continues. So far I have heard nothing that I feel is newsworthy.
london red 15:13:57 GMT - 11/14/2016
cable. tom uk cpi. they shud buy dip ahead of it as mkt worried about cpi running away. so 12380 zone buy stop under 50 stays the rec. now in its stride on downside shme i cut the short with pennies but u cant win them all.
london red 14:57:17 GMT - 11/14/2016
i leave for lunch and come back to see another wave of bond selling! spreads widen a touch and yen almost touched fib 10850 on that wave. abv 10850 on a closing basis tgts 110/111 but needs bonds abv 2.38%
london red 13:49:23 GMT - 11/14/2016
massive wick building in daily and wkly 10yr yield chart. these need to stick but almost certainly now seen high nearterm. on the bund, the 10yr almost filled opening gap and close to flat on day.
london red 13:39:13 GMT - 11/14/2016
btw when gaps arent filled quickly mkt often sharply moves other way. but yes eventually will get filled. retail sales and yellen later in wk. mkt remembers those lvls even if others lose their heads in heat of moment.
london red 13:36:30 GMT - 11/14/2016
if euro comes dwn by top of hour (58) , it will have a long wick, suggestive of 50 and further dwnside. so the play will be to run it dwn in nxt 30 mins, if it is due to fall under 58 and test 50. if rally is going to be maintained, they will not test 58 for 4 hour running - it will turn higher on a dip well ahead of that 58. so anything under 70 suggests up upside for rest of hour and the following 60 mins.
10yr needs below 2.206 or abv 126.83 tick to stop rot but as always spreads give the acceleration, bund needs to lose ground to a rising 10yr (tick) to gain sup for euro.
Mtl JP 13:23:01 GMT - 11/14/2016
red 12:10 IF euro takes a straight run fro 1.05 without closing the gap it would a first in my trading time.
london red 12:49:53 GMT - 11/14/2016
spreads still doing euro no favours even if individual bonds have bounced a little. below 58 and 50 curtains and low tgtd. need a sharp reversal up in last 10 mins of hr to avert danger. seen solid offers on my platform all way dwn from last blip higher. i think everyone has eye on italy ref and thinks 3 strikes (brexit, trump...)
nw kw 12:36:31 GMT - 11/14/2016
yellen later in wk can change things if they havent by then already.
nw kw 12:22:28 GMT - 11/14/2016
for my eurusd gaps are always have a gap inverted to audjpy, not this time, so jpy or yen might lead this week, do we short usdjpy 108. or is a rocket in usdjpy to ap 110.// this week. gl. kw.
Mtl JP 12:15:34 GMT - 11/14/2016
kw dono :-(
nw kw 12:11:58 GMT - 11/14/2016
jp- never had gap inverted to audjpy this time?
london red 12:10:48 GMT - 11/14/2016
agree jp they do sooner or later. but some take a long time. today it would mean a fig off lows and so a change in sentiment as it wud signify a bottom. bond reversal needed to achieve that. yellen later in wk can change things if they havent by then already.
Mtl JP 12:00:52 GMT - 11/14/2016
I have never - sofar - seen one not close
plz mind your risk
london red 11:59:29 GMT - 11/14/2016
euro. shud see intrest to sell c 108 stops over 10810/15. next res 10850 shud cap any fallout. to break 10850 will need concrete turn in bonds.
london red 11:56:10 GMT - 11/14/2016
yes just beginning to feel it as far as stocks concerned but a bit daft as might be as bad as it gets if res on yield holds. still ok unless we break and stay abv 2.38. then cost of money stays higher. currently backed off to 226 frpm just over 230.
Mtl JP 11:48:25 GMT - 11/14/2016
us stocks futures looking to open down
reasonable reaction to perceptions of higher cost of money
nw kw 11:41:22 GMT - 11/14/2016
I need 120 eurjpy but open interest will help me.
london red 11:35:01 GMT - 11/14/2016
shudnbt get hourly close abv 108 if yield dip is real will try another shrt off 108 if seen if 10yr bounce continues to look evident.
london red 11:34:00 GMT - 11/14/2016
cut some yen short here, lets see what the yield does at thius retracement.
london red 11:31:14 GMT - 11/14/2016
cutting cable here shud be bit lower and wick pretty poor so beta not to force issue. but if does fall still plan to buy as discussed.
london red 11:29:55 GMT - 11/14/2016
10yr yield given up 50% of sell off which began late morn (not since open), the sharp slide. is they take 50% usd gets hit again. sup at 10750/30 but watch theyield as sups wont matter if this flips.
nw kw 11:23:49 GMT - 11/14/2016
housing markets illrelivent compared to 10y reinvestment drought.//// all charts on monthly range pivot. cfd under 30y 153.x but bund slightly under pivot 159. so ill look in new week.
ps. refinance commodity's,
london red 11:22:28 GMT - 11/14/2016
actually 185-190 wud need to be revisited. lets see if the work off 2.30 holds.
london red 11:20:03 GMT - 11/14/2016
this is the overshoot. any more than 235-238 and its a higher high and end to 30yr bull run. i dont think we have enough evidence that we can begin a 5yr bear mkt in bonds, hence they shud come in at these levels and a little higher maybe. but abv 238 you will see massive selling as its a higher high. looks like someone made a stand at 230. likely they will stop abv 238 if seen, like a lot of other folk. u see lrg spike on yen too so its poss they make a bottom here. the other alt is they make higher just say 2.40, then the bounce takes place after which mkt will buy dip to 2% and try higher if eveidence of spending/inflation comes in early nxt year. watch that bond candle. its either here at 230 or just abv 238.
GVI Trading john bland 11:13:29 GMT - 11/14/2016
red- What I am wondering is what the "fair value" is for the 10-yr. In other words, where SHOULD it settle. Greenspan last Thursday said 3-5%. I'm thinking about 3% until the Trump Economic boom becomes a reality and not just a forecast. However, I would not be surprised by an initial overshoot in rates as markets try to find their level.
Something else to consider is that higher interest rates are going to hit the housing markets hard. Keep an eye on weekly mortgage applications. They should be hit immediately.
london red 11:12:18 GMT - 11/14/2016
10yr 2.30. 10850 nxt res. prob yield then c. 2.35. 235-238 is key. we can flip here. if so quick drop in yield to 220-225 within an hour. if break v bad news for stocks too id say as until now no reaction.
london red 10:49:19 GMT - 11/14/2016
10yr making a ruan for 2.35-2.38 prev high. if busted we have seen nothing yet and could see 35 WITHIN A DAY. but i expect folks will pick up the 10yr by there isnce all we have thus far is talk. but dips will likely be bought (yield).
london red 10:31:35 GMT - 11/14/2016
poss some stealth intervention by snb, easing eurchf higher. should see selling interest 10750 108. mkt negative while under 108. but of course always threat.
cable. might be a nice fade c 12535 stop over 12555 for a move to test lows. shud only be a pullback as 12380-12450 shud hold to see a move up to 127. stop under 12350. cannot rule out 128-12840 on current move but close abv 130 shud be bridge too far as only so far can run on iffy us ties while eu negotiations will be tricky to say least and shud bring home problems.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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