euro eod straddle 60 pips yen 70. those mark initial range high/low off data. they are not expecting much. may trun out that way but if data good we should get another run at 2.5% on 10year and then it will either pop or fade strongly. inflection point.
Livingston nh 12:18:23 GMT - 12/02/2016
JP - no clue
Mtl JP 12:04:27 GMT - 12/02/2016
Livingston nh what does a killer bring to the board of directors of an alleged healthcare company?
Amazing Trader GBPUSD charts updated on your systems
london red 10:23:31 GMT - 12/02/2016
euro sup by hourly kijun and 50% 38 and then 33 an area of congestion. i am loath to ever suggest cutting euro shorts but st may bounce there given changing signals to usd november trend. mkt shud still go into nfp shrt so any bounce they may fade 68/80
large warships, esp aircraft carriers are, with today's missle technology, are monumenatally expensive "old school" sitting ducks.
1- $million weapon sinks 1 - $trillion floating target.
You've seen those pics of the the Russian Carrier that was sent to the Med. The Rooskies put their money into missle technology, not floating jet launch platforms, which are like a square rigged Man of War in an age of deisel powered steel hulled 8" gunned fore/aft/port/starboard...
Livingston nh 00:35:17 GMT - 12/02/2016
For the last 70 years the idiots have believed in medieval warfare - cost efficiency of nuclear power has been ignored
As an aside - most of these cabinet picks were never on the RADAR -- some will be gone in a couple of years but at least there is a new crew
Livingston nh 23:15:19 GMT - 12/01/2016
JP - first of all (and always) he is a Marine -- but he has been a strategic thinker, not just "boots on the ground" guy// we are in the age of robotics (algos to the financial world) and he will likely be more amenable to hi-tech than the BIG iron types because the little things that save military lives are important
COST (bang for the buck) -- e.g., A-10 was to be phased out but was cheaper by far than an F-35 and far more effective for small arms combat
anyway who knows
Mtl JP 23:04:59 GMT - 12/01/2016
so what does one typically do with / to a mad dog ?
GVI Trading john bland 22:54:21 GMT - 12/01/2016
I love his nickname. Don't mess with mad dog!
Livingston nh 22:31:04 GMT - 12/01/2016
First thought is General Mattis is a throwback to the original position (non politically correct) known as Secretary of WAR (KNOX) -- most of the non-military types have been a disaster
GVI Trading john bland 21:29:54 GMT - 12/01/2016
Trump names General "Mad-Dog" Mattis to be Defense Secretary -- WP
GVI Trading john bland 17:42:11 GMT - 12/01/2016
If the Atlanta Fed forecast is right, GDP is already at 3.00%.Trump is targeting 4%. He is halfway to is target without doing anything.
GVI Trading john bland 17:34:04 GMT - 12/01/2016
Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q16 2.9% vs. 2.4% Nov 30.
PAR16:07:47 GMT - 12/01/2016
Negative rates are becoming surrealistic with Brent at $ 54 . What lies is Draghi going to tell on Thursday .
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 16:04:55 GMT - 12/01/2016
11:02 (EU) Large majority of ECB members reportedly support extending QE beyond March at meeting next week - press
- mulling sending signal regarding the eventual end of asset buying, but no tapering announcement upcoming- policymakers said to be divided on monthly volume of extended purcahses; several options have been discussed in committees
- Source TradeTheNews.com
london red 15:56:52 GMT - 12/01/2016
yest there a cboe tnx seller all day frm the kick off. i wonder if we see same again today
The sentiment has completely changed . We are living in a new world for the time being at least . Nothing but good news . Be happy look at the bright side of live and enjoy America 's new dream.
london red 15:11:00 GMT - 12/01/2016
its fiscal policy expectations that are driving mkt. we are nearly done, maybe another 10% before we need to see some evidence as mkt is prob got dec and 2 for 2017 in the price. still a little bit of upside for usd to come tho b4 it tops out for a pullback.
GVI Trading john bland 15:08:30 GMT - 12/01/2016
fwiw- Trump does not come in for another 50 days or so. This all belongs to the previous bunch.
london red 15:08:10 GMT - 12/01/2016
euro. staying under 10599-10604 keeps pressure on dwnside but been formidable buying 10570-80. will be tough to break today. further res 10615
PAR15:06:38 GMT - 12/01/2016
Trump . The power of positive thinking .
Draghi. The power of negative thinking and negative rates .
PAR15:02:24 GMT - 12/01/2016
US economy is strong and getting stronger . Midas Trump .
The latest just released Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed
Total household debt rose $63 billion in the quarter to $12.35 trillion, driven by a $32 billion increase in auto loans, which also hit a record high of $1.14 trillion. 3.6% of auto loans were 90 or more days delinquent...................................
The data suggest some notable deterioration in the performance of subprime auto loans. This translates into a large number of households, with roughly six million individuals at least ninety days late on their auto loan payments.
london red 17:17:59 GMT - 11/30/2016
Al, high rates some will be killed others not. as long as the right ones come out on top any scenario is poss. but as i say i dont like debt, dont have dont hold. cash is king.
PAR17:11:08 GMT - 11/30/2016
How is that new Zimbabwean currency doing ?
Dillon AL 17:10:24 GMT - 11/30/2016
maybe bargains but consider this if people cannot service debt...... do I really need to go on. in reality I am on record that headline rates for the US are not going back above 3% in our lifetime. Extrapolate a curve and voila. This is the new normal. Until we have some form of wholesale forgiveness/repudiation/mass default of debt then my scenario holds water and yours does not. Just saying
london red 17:07:13 GMT - 11/30/2016
re debt those that dont have nor hold any, can profit at 0-10% its all good, well not for those on either side.
Mtl JP 17:03:39 GMT - 11/30/2016
ok Al, so this is going academic:
how would a killed global economy look like ?
all I see is would-be bargains
PAR17:02:43 GMT - 11/30/2016
Imho it benefited nobody . It was just an economist's wet dream and politicians did nothing to stop the madness . Politicians are now facing the anger of the people over the Financial Repression from the last 3 years .
Dillon AL 17:00:01 GMT - 11/30/2016
Actually 6%+ would kill the global economy. You only have to work the math on the amount of outstanding debt
Mtl JP 16:56:19 GMT - 11/30/2016
GVI Trading john bland 14:07 Dream on. 10% would kill the global economy.
Beyond an opinion , you do not know that.
What we both do know is that near/sub/zero rate has NOT benefited me.
Chatter that Chi PMI is well above the consensus forecast
Mtl JP 14:15:35 GMT - 11/30/2016
higher yields are primarily supportive of bank stocks
naturally folks financing some "better economic data" get paid first
GVI Trading john bland 14:12:28 GMT - 11/30/2016
Better economic data are supportive of equities. You know that!
SaaR KaL 14:11:23 GMT - 11/30/2016
USDCAD easy tgt 1.3770
Mtl JP 14:10:52 GMT - 11/30/2016
how are rising yields supportive of equities ?
GVI Trading john bland 14:07:58 GMT - 11/30/2016
Dream on. 10% would kill the global economy.
Mtl JP 14:06:53 GMT - 11/30/2016
I dream of 10% interest
I have some catching up .... for the last 8+ yrs lol
GVI Trading john bland 14:02:19 GMT - 11/30/2016
10.-yr 2.377% +7.3bp yields rising after U.S. data today. Supportive of USD and equities.
Mtl JP 14:02:00 GMT - 11/30/2016
1.3350 - me thinks - is a gift
Livingston nh 13:58:58 GMT - 11/30/2016
Watch the price of oil before any official or no-official news --
somebody always knows
Mtl JP 13:56:08 GMT - 11/30/2016
the opec cartel is alleged to have a press conf at 15gmt
as per my earlier refernce post:
GVI Trading john bland 13:45:01 GMT - 11/30/2016
REMINDER: OPEC headline from earlier was not official. Still waiting for additional confirmation.
london red 13:39:16 GMT - 11/30/2016
watch 10y hourly close poss double wick/tail dep on tick or yield
nh- good point. I agree 100%. At some point they will figure out its different this time.
Livingston nh 12:36:18 GMT - 11/30/2016
re: mortgage market - folks have been conditioned to expect a blip in rates to fade and lower rates to resume, so THEY wait for a better deal -- IF it becomes apparent that lower rates will not be on offer again (i.e., the cycle has turned) there will be a scramble to lock in and/or close before rates jump // nobody ever asked to lock in a rate when they thought the trend was lower -- maybe it's different this time
LONDON SFH 12:34:14 GMT - 11/30/2016
US bonds outperforming when the US is not in doesn't seem signifciant to me...esp when it is such a small move. So much has been made of the supposed index move from stocks into bonds for month end that it seems everyone just got caught long again
PAR12:31:33 GMT - 11/30/2016
Looks like Bloomberg and Reuters are censoring bad news .
Not a word about US twin deficits , not a word about mortgage figures.
Today Cheer leading the OPEC deal while yesterday stating a deal was unlikely .
Mama mia . Who to trust .
london red 12:29:17 GMT - 11/30/2016
10y spreads hv moved in favour of usd over last few hours. 10y tapping 2.35 again.
as yest will need to see if usd can hold onto data gains. yest was unable to after initial spike.
LONDON SFH 12:27:24 GMT - 11/30/2016
Huge amt of talk about big shift of funds from stocks into bonds to be done....so think everyone was long bonds into it... Now getting hit
GVI Trading john bland 12:26:24 GMT - 11/30/2016
"Trump Effect" (via higher interest rates)
GVI Trading john bland 12:25:05 GMT - 11/30/2016
Weekly Mortgages (-9.4% vs +5.5%)
Refi's -16.2% vs. -3.1%
Purchases -0.20% vs. +15.2%
GVI Trading john bland 10:00:42 GMT - 11/30/2016
Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) November 2016
yy: +0.60% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
yy: +0.80% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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