Bond markets starting to feel the Pressure of Italy's vote - confidence is critical to paper assets so banks are likely to be indirect victims of the referendum // the yield curves in US and EU may start to send wildly different messages as inflation expectations affect the long end and CBs the short end
Stox will be dragged along and oil unwinds -- looks like a few days of "if you don't like the moves wait a half hour"
GVI Trading john bland 11:47:43 GMT - 12/02/2016
Equities Risk Off
10-yr 2.436% -0.5bbp
GVI Trading john bland 09:50:20 GMT - 12/02/2016
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment
U.S. November employment data is the major economic event today. Street estimates are for Jobs to have gained by about 175K in the month and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.90%. ADP private payroll data released this week suggest the the street estimates may be correct. ADP is not always a reliable indicator of NFP.
Odds are the data will not change Fed intentions to raise rates. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions. Markets have placed 100% odds on a 25bp Fed Funds target increase on December 14.
The Italian Referendum on Sunday, December 4 is the next high profile event. Some are touting the vote as indirect referendum on the Euro. If these reforms are defeated, the Renzi government could fall. The ECB has assured markets that it has the capacity to buy Italian government bonds temporarily if needed.
The U.S. Presidential vote recount is another uncertainty. U.S. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with Clinton help, is supporting recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Odds in favor a reversal of the Trump victory are very slim. Some say Stein is doing this for personal reasons.
red - NFP consensus is 180k - so I expect a MISS - November has been on the high side last few years // I tack 10% on consensus higher (and a bit) // BUT if NFP is weak it is 20% off consensus (and a bit)
The seasonal adjustments kick in to reduce the high side (which makes a BAD number worse -- October s/b revised higher pulling some more out of NOV
My Goat entrail indicator agrees w/ consensus
london red 21:27:21 GMT - 12/01/2016
nfp shud be a solid beat well over 200k, but i think it will be pushed off the headlines tomorrow. i smell blood.
Livingston nh 21:21:30 GMT - 12/01/2016
NFP Guess = 204K, decline in Participation Rate and 4.6% unemployment rate // usually unemployment rate rises as jobs get more plentiful but seems this time folks are withdrawing faster
GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are: +100% from +100% late Wednesday.
GVI Trading john bland 20:37:50 GMT - 12/01/2016
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 2-Dec Fri
13:30 CA/US Employment
On Thursday Global final manufacturing PMI data generally continued to improve in latest releases today. As a result, bond yields broadly rose. Equities generally sold off due to higher interest rates.
U.S. November employment data is the next major economic event (Friday). Street estimates are for JObs to have gained by about 175K in the month and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.90%. ADP private payroll data released this week suggest the the street estimates may be correct. They are not always a reliable indicator. Monthly Job statistics are one of the top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions. Markets have placed 100% odds on a 25bp Fed Funds target increase on December 14.
The Italian Referendum next Sunday, December 4 remains a high profile event. Some feel this might become indirect referendum on the Euro. The ECB has indicated it has the capacity to buy Italian government bonds temporarily if needed. If these reforms are defeated, the Renzi government could fall.
OPEC decision reduce production by 1.4mn BPD to 32.5mn bpd continued to support crude price. Some oil traders say, Ministers deftly put a squeeze on the oli shorts. Conventional wisdom is that excess supply will be worked down due to increased demand and and put support for crude prices at somewhere around the $50 to $60 level.
The U.S. Presidential vote recount is another uncertainty. U.S. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with Clinton help, is supporting recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Odds do not favor a reversal of the Trump victory. Some feel Stein is doing this for personal reasons.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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