solid beats across board plus rising input prices keeps pressure on headlines going forward. mkt short cable so remains a buy on dips as mkt has pretty much priced this one in already now.
bali sja 09:35:58 GMT - 12/13/2016
red, you mean buy cable on dips for the remaining of this year?
Mtl JP 09:36:43 GMT - 12/13/2016
7 pip uP pricereaction over 5 minutes post-release = fizz
london red 09:45:08 GMT - 12/13/2016
bali, mkt is susceptible to short squeezes while lrg short position and cable cant go dwn convincingly til those possies reduced. alternatively we need to get some regular bad news. so far brexit headlines softening and data ok to good, so unless that changes the shorts need squeezing. poss we see 128-130 before dwn as shorts still lrg despite the rally in cable a week ago. i think fed day might provide a dip buy scenario. i think cable will do well after intial drop if usd mentioned in text or q&a
GVI Trading john bland 09:53:07 GMT - 12/13/2016
Calendar Correction German ZEW due at 10:00 GMT
bali sja 09:53:56 GMT - 12/13/2016
thanks red, will keep an eye on that scenario
nw kw 09:59:44 GMT - 12/13/2016
brexit les risk than new eur gov. play out, I need beer for this eurgbp
GVI Trading john bland 10:00:19 GMT - 12/13/2016
German ZEW Survey December 2016
Current Situation: +63.5 vs. +59.0 exp. vs. +58.8 prev.
Economic Expectations: +13.8 vs. +14.0 exp. vs. +13.8 prev.
Headline German ZEW beats. Expectations flat. Little impact on EUR
GVI Trading john bland 11:09:41 GMT - 12/13/2016
Re: Red comments earlier about GBP shorts. I only follow COT very broadly, but I generally feel their reports can be representative of longer-term positions. They indicated last week that there remains an overhang of shorts.
GVI Trading john bland 11:11:35 GMT - 12/13/2016
Trump selects Rex Tillerson, EXXON CEO to be Secretary of State, as widely expected.
>> wire service
GVI Trading john bland 12:35:04 GMT - 12/13/2016
Report UPS and Fedex struggling to keep up with record holiday demand. Relocating staff to shipping hubs...
>> Source: TTN.com
GVI Trading john bland 12:43:25 GMT - 12/13/2016
I don't know if this delivery story reflects only on-line demand or sales generally.
10yr 2.512% +3.0bp
markets reacting to dot-plots
GVI Trading john bland 19:20:32 GMT - 12/14/2016
Fed Policy Statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EST
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
Implementation Note issued December 14, 2016
GVI Trading john bland 19:27:07 GMT - 12/14/2016
Bold in the statement is ours. I read the statement as cautious, but not quite dovish as before...
london red 19:32:45 GMT - 12/14/2016
no mention of usd. hence no rebound. but that is the risk in presser. if no mention shud test 105. if mentions then 107.
Livingston nh 19:32:46 GMT - 12/14/2016
The inflation language is the sop to Brainard cabal and a warning that there will be no response to inflation (not true but ...) -- ignore what they say
Livingston nh 19:41:21 GMT - 12/14/2016
WTI - easily filled GAP // 10 yr yields unable to push past 2.5 yield // Stox looking for an excuse in OPEX week
USD/JPY looks like a 'true believer' --
JP -- nicely played
london red 19:44:16 GMT - 12/14/2016
presser so far dovish, trying to manage
london red 19:47:08 GMT - 12/14/2016
euro to 10630/35 and reassess
Mtl JP 19:54:40 GMT - 12/14/2016
and sofar no body challenging her 2% inflation objective (i.e. theft)
what a bunch of kittens !
NY JM 20:00:13 GMT - 12/14/2016
Red, let's say she does not sound hawkish but 10-year yields at the high (2.526%) and fx correlating
Livingston nh 20:03:18 GMT - 12/14/2016
JM - this is the reaction in 10 yr yields to "lower for longer" -- she can't away w/ that any longer --- the sellers are focused on inflation
dc CB 20:12:47 GMT - 12/14/2016
In a twist from the usual OPEX that has ruled this year...Zero Out the Puts - kill the shorts. Thanks to the Yuge rally, this time the Call is, sorry boys it's not going that high by friday.
Livingston nh 20:15:33 GMT - 12/14/2016
Looking at the USD index it appears that the market didn't really price in a Fed hike
dc CB 20:21:00 GMT - 12/14/2016
the 5Y cash market closed at 1.994%
london red 20:34:56 GMT - 12/14/2016
yield is one thing, but they will need to follow thru with those hikes. 3 hikes means march/april time you need to have started. cannot believe nobody asked about the usd. key sup euro 10520 then barrier 105.
Livingston nh 20:39:57 GMT - 12/14/2016
Nobody asked about the USd because it wasn't approved as a question -- 3 rate hikes? there have been maybe a half dozen and 4 absolutely better "data dependent" meetings to hike than today -- Gary Cohn next up?//
She may have lost the 10 yr today
london red 20:41:27 GMT - 12/14/2016
london red 20:43:02 GMT - 12/14/2016
that is the point, they hv been unable to followthru all yr.
Livingston nh 20:45:20 GMT - 12/14/2016
RED - unwilling, not unable -- Yellen is a theorist
london red 20:46:37 GMT - 12/14/2016
if new lod then barrier test. lets see what its made of. 10y 2.64 last high so while stretched some way to go if they want to
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 20:47:23 GMT - 12/14/2016
I have been saying that unlike the past few years where the Fed rate hikes fell shy of expectations, this time it will likely do the opposite.
Livingston nh 20:50:59 GMT - 12/14/2016
I doubt she can - the economy will likely turn against her at least once this year and from these levels STOX can cause heartburn // and if she sees international turmoil ??
london red 20:54:02 GMT - 12/14/2016
rally shud tap out 10520-30 max . if abv 35 then downside done for now.
Livingston nh 21:01:30 GMT - 12/14/2016
Jay - the test of Fed policy is the "tight" policy of reinvesting and holding Treasury securities -- she says they won't change until rate "normalization'" is well under way --- there is the cart before the horse
london red 21:06:30 GMT - 12/14/2016
just managed to stay below prev high but u feel now a bit extend given proximity to rollover. fading 10550-80 stop over 10660 might be in order into rest of week.
Mtl JP 21:11:15 GMT - 12/14/2016
nh 21:01 and with that babble all she did is betray how fragile the fin n banking system is. she knows numbers she does not publish for public consumption.
SNB says it will remain active in forex markets...
london red 08:44:25 GMT - 12/15/2016
snb was in the mkt yesterday ny, smoothing. but if euro moves to lower band vs usd, the snb will have to pick its battles.
euro cycle low 10462 if broken exposes 10450 barrier. below there i can see v little reg option cover, maybe end nxt wk a 101, but v little inbetween. lt fibs at 10116 (38.2 065/160) and 10065 (23.6 082/160 will be tgts if thus far cycle low taken. hourly chart showing triangle structure. upper channel of this comes in at 10507 dropping about 3 pips evry hour. while this caps, bears in charge.
GVI Trading john bland 09:00:34 GMT - 12/15/2016
EZ Flash PMIs December 2016
mfg: 54.9 vs. 53.7 exp. vs. 53.7 prev.
svc: 53.1 vs. 53.7 exp. vs. 53.8 prev.
mfg: 55.5 vs. 54.5 exp. vs. 54.3
svc: 53.8 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 55.1
mfg: 53.5 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 51.7
svc: 52.6 vs. 51.6 exp. vs. 51.6
euro. triangle holding upper now 105 lower 10470. a break below and staying below pts to 10450 barrier test. vital to get a close below 105 today and this wk below 10462 even better to draw in sellers nxt wk.
kl fs 09:14:44 GMT - 12/15/2016
red, despite all that would be interesting to see how players juggling position ahead of long holidays until second week of january
thin volume markets soon, nobody wants to be the last one out
JP, even if u do away with yields just plot a chart of the euro and the 10y tick. they have been moving pretty much in tandem. but spreads overall massively moved in favour of usd. that is in the price tho, we need more to get more. 10y thru 2.64 shud extend the bar further. for now 257 and 253 would be sup there.
Belgrade Knez 15:08:01 GMT - 12/15/2016
do you think that euro will not see range 1.0460 and above, or this still possible before new down move?
london red 15:19:58 GMT - 12/15/2016
when i trade i first look at where i can put my stop. if its not sheltered by gd sup/res, then the trade i want to do gets crossed off. the key is to not lose money. we can all pick good trades, but most cannot avoid bad ones. a bad one would be trying to pick a bottom. i would rather sell rallies and thats whats behind that idea - if seen, do.
i would say the mkt isnt as short as last time we were at 105 and the time before, as the shallow bounces will confirm but you aren't getting any stops down here either. mkt will want to squeeze spec short stops but that will only happen when yields give up a bit or usd gets ahead of itself which might just be beginning to happen now.
what i mentioned earlier is taking place in earnest right now, overtaking the yen and moving lower despite yields and spreads having paused. we are close to a pullback but shud still end wk below 10462. eurjpy is well dwn on the day now and just starting to affect usdjpy.
GVI Trading john bland 10:35:12 GMT - 12/16/2016
EZ final HICP (CPI) steady. core CPI unchanged.
GVI Trading john bland 13:31:42 GMT - 12/16/2016
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) November 2016
Starts: 1.090 vs. 1.230 exp. vs. 1.320 (r 1.340) prev.
Permits:1.200 vs. 1.240 exp. vs. 1.220 (r 1.260 )prev.
maybe Putin had him kidnapped and now feeding him serrum to reveal proof how vlad meddled to cause hrc's election loss
dc CB 19:26:19 GMT - 12/16/2016
remember if he Sniffs too loudly, he's on coke.
GVI Trading john bland 19:28:26 GMT - 12/16/2016
typical Obama already 15mins late and counting...
Mtl JP 19:31:47 GMT - 12/16/2016
maybe he is trying to figure out - surrounded by his 17-intel agencies - which war's start to announce first: with China or w Putin
GVI Trading john bland 19:37:00 GMT - 12/16/2016
Passive-aggressive behavior is the indirect expression of hostility, such as through procrastination, stubbornness, sullen behavior, or deliberate or repeated failure to accomplish requested tasks for which one is (often explicitly) responsible.
dc CB 19:37:18 GMT - 12/16/2016
FBI backs CIA view that Russia helped Trump win election
FBI Director James Comey and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper have backed a CIA assessment that Russia intervened in the 2016 election in part to help Donald Trump win the presidency, according to U.S. officials. Some lawmakers had suggested that the bureau and the agency weren’t in agreement on the issue.
By Adam Entous and Ellen Nakashima15 minutes ago
GVI Trading john bland 19:41:13 GMT - 12/16/2016
25 mins... starting
Mtl JP 19:41:55 GMT - 12/16/2016
apparently in lacker's definition's dictionary, gradual can also mean more than three
thanks again, cretin, for the euro dip
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