GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are: +100% from +100% late Friday.
Service PMI data from the U.S. released Thursday improved, hovever the ADP Private Jobs Survey fell short of street estimates. On Friday key employment reports from the U.S. and Canada are due.
Heavy forex intervention by the PBOC in the Chinese yuan to combat large capital outflows and to strengthen the currency generated havoc in overseas markets. The activity saw the USD weaken sharply vs. the EUR and JPY weaken as well. Markets have since stabilized. As in the case of the SNB fiasco, governments are likely to have words with the PBOC about being a source of market instability.
Fed Policy Minutes Wednesday sent mixed messages. The two most salient items seemed to be that increased fiscal stimulus should cause the FOMC to raise its economic growth forecasts, but that a resultant higher USD could be a restraint on inflation. As the dust settled, the markets seemingly were reading the statement as mildly hawkish.
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
07:00 DE Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- Employment/Trade
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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