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Mtl JP  11:44:21 GMT - 01/08/2018  
nh 16:26 note that the thread's headline is a sentence in past tense
odds are algos are gaming Friday's uberhawk interest-related yakks by FED gang members, 2018 voters Williams and Mester.

I still maintain my earlier 2018 view that eurdlr will see 1.10-ish before it sees 1.30-ish


Livingston nh  16:26:14 GMT - 01/07/2018  

A lot of moving parts - there was a time when the relative rates of inflation vs the US determined currency values over a medium term (3-5 yrs) and then the relative REAL yield played a part // the curent confusion over the lack of inflation and the cereal box mix of PCE, CPI, GDP deflator with Core and non Core flavors has not helped drive expectations

QE certainly has played a part - as ECB started up its program EURzone players turned to higher yielding Treasury mkt (see my chart of EU purchases from a few days ago) for a couple of years - my pet theory about Bernanke Hoarding Cash played a big part in restricting growth and reduced inflation expectations

The decline of petro-dollars, the shifting trade flows and the long term effects of post industrial service based economies in the Developed Countries has also confused the traditional currency market movers

Japan is "QE forever", EU is QE plus intra EURzone currency risk (see Italy vs Germany) w/o a Benchmark yield, UK post Brexit Gilts are likely to play a more dominant role than simple trade flows and the US is unleashing the hoarded dollars into a fiscal loosening period (exacerbated if infrastructure build becomes the next big thing)

Yield is simple and despite detours I think it will return as a currency driver -- BUT be careful out there the Central Banks have summoned Demons that are yet to be seen


AT Amazing Trader john bland  14:07:29 GMT - 01/07/2018  

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


USD Not Responding Positively to Higher Fed Funds Target††The prospect of a tighter Fed policy during the second half of 2017 and into the new year has not been providing the USD with the support that we might have expected. We have been scratching our heads about this since forex markets usually are driven by short-term interest rates... More >>>

Why Higher Fed Rates Havenít Helped the Dollar



GVI Forex Blog  16:04:07 GMT - 01/05/2018  

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


USD Not Responding Positively to Higher Fed Funds Target††The prospect of a tighter Fed policy during the second half of 2017 and into the new year has not been providing the USD with the support that we might have expected. We have been scratching our heads about this since forex markets usually are driven by short-term interest rates... More >>>

Why Higher Fed Rates Havenít Helped the Dollar






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