NY JM 19:06 GMT - corporates do not care too much about techmical stuff. momentum maybe but after more than +400 pips in january needless to say they will want to take profits in any warning sign.
and most of the banks forecats for the 3 6 and 12 months in area 1,25 1,30. so with first month of the year 1,25 is good enough. of course able to hedge all year at 1,3000 in first quarter would be even better.
thats why hedge funds must push it above 1,2538 or else next week more sellers from coporates andreal money funds.
and lets not forget that speculative commonty by IMM has built up biggest ever net long positions more that 172 000 contrracts. if you are hf you do not want to be in a situation where someone else is starting selling and you need to hitlower bids insteed of being first who starts the profit taking- first few hundred points
london red 21:24:15 GMT - 02/01/2018
i wont go as far as viies but its poss mkt is setting up for a fall given that we are opening at the high of the day and nearing big tech lvls (on which i will try to post tom nearer nfp). its poss we get a new high tom and then a key reversal by close (u could have a scenario where nfp maybe doesnt light any fires and comes in as f/c where euro initially runs higher but fades away and tips into sell mode as stops are tripped). one can argue that usdjpy drop is a natural tailwind for euro but worry noting that specs are short jpy as much as they are long euros, so one can see a scenario where euro and usdjpy both fall and eurjpy really takes it across the chin and does the worst.
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